Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa's main requirements for power are in the form of
electricity and liquid fuels The country's electricity is generated
mainly from coal while the liquid fuels requirement is mainly from
crude oil.
Both coal and crude oil use are coming under increasing pressure
locally because of pollution and accompanying environmental
awareness. Internationally both energy sources are also
increasingly being abandoned as preferred energy sources, in first
world countries, in favour of cleaner energy sources.ln view of
these developments in the macro environment South Africa's gas
to liquids refinery built in the early 1990's seems a well placed
past investment ahead of its time.
This study project looks at the economic feasibility of the
continued existence of the PetroSA gas to liquid plant in Mossel
Bay.The study looks at South Africa as well as Southern Africa's
energy resources , the effect of changing legislation on the future
use of energy resources and the economics of the Mossel Bay
facility.
The study finds that South Africa's abundance of coal reserves, its
lack of oil and gas reserves and the slow pace of environmental
legislation delivery means that gas is unlikely to become a major
source of energy in South Africa.The Mossel Bay gas to liquids
plant is profitable but its high fixed costs and certain growth of
this cost component means that the continued feasibility of
operations is dependant on favourable movements in the exchange
rate and oil price.
To answer the question about whether to continue operating or
close down the analysis found that although although early closure
would provide a return of more than 15 percent it would be even
more viable financially to make an investment for more gas and
continue operations.The main reason for the better than average
projected returns is the high oil price .The decision to close down
the Mossel Bay plant is not likely to be based on financial
considerations alone.
The recommendation is thus to continue operations untill 2016.The
investment required to secure more gas would , even in the worst
case scenario, provide a satisfactory return on investment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid Afrika se energie behoeftes is hoofsaaklik vir elektrisiteit en
brandstof. Die meerderheid van die land se elektristeit word deur
middel van steenkool opgewek terwyl ru-olie gebruik word om
brandstof te vervaardig.
Beide steenkool en ru-olie word al hoe meer onder druk geplaas
as gevolg van besoedeling en 'n meer omgewing bewuste
publiek. Op internasionale vlak , in eerste wereld lande word die
gebruik van steenkool en ru-olie al hoe meer afgeskaf ten gunsle
van skoner kragbronne.
In die lig van hierdie verwikkeling in die makro omgewing mag dit
op die oog af Iyk of PetroSA se gas na vloeistof aanleg in
Mosselbaai, wat reeds in die vroee 1990's gebou is, as 'n goeie
destydse strategiese belegging voorkom.
Hierdie studie projek ondersoek die ekonomiese
lewensvatbaarheid van die voorgesette bestaan van die PetroSA
se Mosselbaai gas na vloeislof aanleg. Die studie kyk na Suid-Afrika
sowel as die groter Suider Afrika se natuurlike
energiebronne, die invloed van verandering in wetgewing op die
toekomstige gebruik van energiebronne en die ekonomiese
kenmerke van die aanleg in Mosselbaai.
Die bevinding van die studie is dat Suid-Afrika se oorvloed van
steenkool, sy tekort aan natuurlike gas en die stadige pas
waarteen omgewings-wetgewing ontwikkel word, daartoe lei dat
gas nie 'n volmatige energiebron in Suid Afrika sal word nie. Die
aanleg in Mosselbaai is huidiglik winsgewind maar sy hoe
vastekoste en groei hiervan belemmer sy vooruitsigte vanuit 'n
finansiele oogpunt. Die winsgewindheid van die aanleg is afhanklik
van 'n verswakkende Suid Afrikaanse geldeenheid en verhogende
ru-olie pryse.
Die vraag onstaan dus of die aanleg moet toemaak en of produksie
moet voortgaan. Die ondersoek vind dat alhoewel die sluiting van
die aanleg 'n opbrengs van meer as 15 persent sal lewer dit selfs
meer finansieel aantreklik is on te belê in meer gas sodat
produksie kan voortgaan. Die hoofrede vir die bogemiddelde
opbrengs is die hoe oilieprys. Dit is onwaarskynlik dat die
oorweging om die Mosselbaaise aanleg sluit suiwer op
finansieele oorwegings sal rus.
Die aanbeveling is dus om voort te gaan met produksie tot
2016. Die belegging wat nodig is vir meer gas sal selfs onder die
mees pessimistiese omstandighede steeds 'n bevredigende
opbrengs lewer.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/50377 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | McGregor, James Royston |
| Contributors | Smith, J., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 107 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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