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Previous issue date: 2017 / Objetivou-se analisar e mensurar o desempenho econ?mico plurianual da atividade leiteira a
partir de dados obtidos de seis propriedades leiteiras, situadas na regi?o do munic?pio de
Montes Claros-MG entre os anos de 2007 e 2012. Al?m disso, visou-se desenvolver um
software de simula??es que permitisse a avalia??o econ?mica e a viabilidade de projetos no
aux?lio ? tomada de decis?es. Foram realizadas an?lises de dados de despesas, receitas e
?ndices zoot?cnicos como porcentagem de vacas em lacta??o, dias em lacta??o, produ??o total
di?ria, produ??o m?dia de vacas em lacta??o, produ??o m?dia total do rebanho, rela??o
matriz/funcion?rio, rela??o leite/funcion?rio, produ??o/hectare/ano e intervalo de partos de
cada propriedade. Posteriormente, foi determinada a m?dia regional anual para an?lise do
comportamento da atividade na regi?o durante os anos, por meio de correla??es
multivariadas. As propriedades foram estratificadas em fun??o do n?mero de vacas no
rebanho e, por teste de m?dias foram estabelecidas as diferen?as entre os principais
indicadores zoot?cnicos e econ?micos. Na determina??o do custo de produ??o foi utilizada a
metodologia do custo operacional. O software, por sua vez, foi desenvolvido em linguagem
computacional Basic, com aux?lio de ferramentas administrativas na estrutura??o do
algoritmo de viabilidade econ?mica de projetos. Foram adicionados ao algoritmo equa??es
para realiza??o de teste de sensibilidade e an?lise de riscos segundo m?todo de simula??o de
Monte Carlo. A an?lise plurianual dos componentes zoot?cnicos e econ?micos evidenciou
elevado n?vel de intera??o dos indicadores zoot?cnicos no comportamento dos indicadores
econ?micos avaliados. O fator gerencial esteve atuante na determina??o dos indicadores
zoot?cnicos e, consequentemente, nos indicadores econ?micos. A produ??o de leite anual foi
superior no intervalo de estratos de maior tamanho, demandando maiores custos com
alimentos concentrados e maiores investimentos de capital para obten??o de m?dias
superiores para receita, margem bruta e margem l?quida. O algoritmo implementado ao
submodelo econ?mico gera dados condizentes, auxiliando a tomada de decis?es na elabora??o
de projetos da atividade leiteira. O software desenvolvido possui interface amig?vel,
permitindo a intera??o m?quina usu?rio. / Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Zootecnia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2017. / The objective was to analyze and measure the multiannual economic performance of milk
production through economic indicators and its correlation with some zootechnical indicators,
based on data obtained from six dairy farms located near to Montes Claros- MG, Brazil,
between 2007 and 2012. In addition, it was aimed the development of a simulation software,
with a mathematical algorithm, capable of performing the economic evaluation and feasibility
of projects in dairy farms, in the aid of decision-making. Were analyzed data of expenses,
income and zootechnical indexes of the six properties. The following zootechnical indexes
were determined and analyzed: percentage of lactating cows, days in lactation, total daily
production, and average production of lactating cows, total average herd production,
matrix/employee ratio, milk/employee ratio, yield/hectare/year and interval of deliveries of
each property. After that, the annual regional average was determined to analyze the behavior
of the activity in the region during the years. To determine the cost of production, the
operational cost methodology. To determine the complete inventory of the goods, the
methodology proposed by Lopes et al. (2004). The annual depreciation was calculated in a
linear way and did not consider the depreciation of matrices, nor of the property. Revenue
from the activity consisted of the sale of milk, sub-products, the sale of animals and the
variation of animal inventory. The following economic efficiency indicators were determined:
gross margin, net margin and profitability. Multivariate correlations were made of the
zootechnical indexes with the indicators of economic efficiency and operational costs. The
properties were classified according to the number of cows in the herd, and by average test the
differences between the main size, zootechnical and economic indicators were established.
The software was developed in Basic computational language, it was used administrative
tools for structuring the economic feasibility of projects algorithm. Equations were added to
the algorithm in order to perform sensitivity test and risk analysis according to the Monte
Carlo simulation method. The properties with more than 100 cows in the herd had a higher
average of lactating cows than the others, but properties with up to 80 cows in the herd
obtained a similar average to the properties of over 100 cows in the herd. The annual milk
production was higher in the range with properties with more than 100 cows in the herd,
demanding higher costs, including expenses with concentrated feed and higher capital
investment to obtain higher averages of revenue, gross margin and net margin.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:acervo.ufvjm.edu.br/jspui:1/1615 |
| Date | 26 July 2017 |
| Creators | Resende, Elton Silva |
| Contributors | Villela, Severino Delmar Junqueira, Martins, Paulo Gustavo Macedo de Almeida, Oliveira, Altamir Fernandes de, Machado, Henrique Valentim Nunes, Leonel, Fernando de Paula, Machado, Henrique Valentin Nunes, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Villela, Severino Delmar Junqueira |
| Publisher | UFVJM |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFVJM, instname:Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, instacron:UFVJM |
| Rights | A concess?o da licen?a deste item refere-se ao ? termo de autoriza??o impresso assinado pelo autor, assim como na licen?a Creative Commons, com as seguintes condi??es: Na qualidade de titular dos direitos de autor da publica??o, autorizo a Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri e o IBICT a disponibilizar por meio de seus reposit?rios, sem ressarcimento dos direitos autorais, de acordo com a Lei n? 9610/98, o texto integral da obra disponibilizada, conforme permiss?es assinaladas, para fins de leitura, impress?o e/ou download, a t?tulo de divulga??o da produ??o cient?fica brasileira, e preserva??o, a partir desta data., info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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