Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research assignment has investigated the overall nature of the
investment climate in the People's Republic of China (PRC).The investment
climate was analysed using a Political Risk Analysis (PRA) framework,
whereby the PRC was scrutinised closely for its most defining socioeconomic
features and, especially, for its most salient political risk factors.
Based on this, the assignment evaluated this climate with specific relevance
to the investment plans of the South African company SAB-Miller.
Since its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)in 2001, the PRC
has intensified its economic restructuring process, a necessary and
inevitable process, in order to comply with the terms of the WTOframework.
This period of adjustment has heightened the anxiety over the strength of
the Chinese economy, and the repercussions and/or opportunities for the
multinational SAB-Miller.To remedy this uncertainty, this assignment has
drawn up an in-depth qualitative scenario, in order to forecast the major
trends of the PRC's short-term socio-political future. The main findings of
the assignment indicate that a 'high-road' scenario is the most likely to
occur in the PRC in the short-term. Clearly, this favourable forecast 1S
dependent on the continuation of the current economic and socio-political
restructuring process in the PRC.
With regards to the main macro-political risks factors, the assignment draws
attention to several critical areas of concern. Firstly, the lack of
legitimatisation from the 'bottom-up' is a worrying feature, especially in light
of the growing economic disparities between citizens and between provinces.
Secondly, the financial and governmental sectors need a thorough
restructuring, according to WTO criteria. Thirdly, the fragmentation of the
market inside the PRe undermines the potential of the PRC government to
diffuse the benefits of economic growth and to absorb the downsides of
globalisation. Micro-specific risk factors for the company SAB-Miller are
focussed predominantly on the speed and the depth of the implementation of
the guidelines of the WTO. Especially with regards to the lowering of intra-provincial trade barriers and the efficacy of the distribution networks. Lastly,
SAB-Miller should eliminate any risk factors, which may originate from
inside the company's behaviour, such as the effects of its adopted labour
policies. Lastly, it should maintain a clear level of transparency in their
associations with governmental institutions. Throughout the assignment,
these risk factors will be investigated and related to the overall political risk
climate and utilised to draw conclusions concerning the potential of the
investment plans of SAB-Miller. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk het die beleggingsklimaat van die Volksrepubliek China
(VRC) ondersoek. Die beleggingssklimaat is ontleed deur gebruik te maak
van 'n model vir Politieke Risiko Analise (PRA), waarby die VRC sorgvuldig
onderwerp is aan 'n ondersoek van sy mees kenmerkende sosio-ekonomiese
faktore en van die belangrikste risiko faktore. Hierop gebaseer, het die
werkstuk ook die beleggingsklimaat ontleed met spesifieke betrekking tot die
beleggingsplanne van die Suid Afrikaanse maatskappy SAB-Miller.
Sedert toetreding tot die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie (WHO) in 2001, het die
VRC sy transformasie proses versnel ten einde te voldoen aan die WHO se
toelatingskriteria. Hierdie tydperk van aanpassing het kommer gewek oor die
Chinese ekonomie asook oor die gevolge daarvan vir die maatskappy SABMiller.
Om hierdie onsekerheid aan te spreek het die werkstuk 'n
kwalitatiewe scenario voorgestel, ten einde die hoofpunte van die VRC se
sosio-ekonomiese kort-termyn toekoms vooruit te skat. Die gevolgtrekking
van hierdie werkstuk toon aan dat 'n 'high-road' scenario die waarskynlikste
is gedurende die kort termyn. Dis ook duidelik dat die gunstige
vooruitskattings afhanklik is van die voortsetting van die huidige sosioekonomiese
transformasie proses van die VRC.
Met betrekking tot die vernaamste makro-politieke risiko faktore het die
werkstuk aandag gegee aan verskeie kommerwekkende aspekte. Eerstens,
die gebrek aan elektorale regmatigheid van die 'grond-af, waarskynlik in die
lig van die toenemende ekonomisiese verskille tussen burgers asook tussen
provinsies. Tweedens, moet die finansiële- en staatssektore grondig
herstruktureer word volgens die WHO riglyne. Derdens, ondermyn die
fragmentasie van die mark van binne China die mag van die VRCse regering
om die voordele van die ekonomiese groei gelykmatig te versprei, asook om
die nadele van Globalisasie te absorbeer. Mikro-spesifieke risiko faktore vir
die SAB-Miller maatskappy het hoofsaaklik gefokus op die spoed en die
diepgang van die implementering van die WHO riglyne. In besonder met
betrekking tot die hoë interprovinsiale handelsbelemmerings en die optimale
effektiwiteit van die verspreidingskakels. Laatstens, moet SAB-Miller enige risiko faktore elimineer wat as gevolg van die maatskappy se eie gedrag kan
onstaan, byvoorbeeld die maatskappy se arbeidsvoorwaardes. SAB-Miller
moet ook 'n duidelike aanspreeklikheidsfunksie daarstel, in hulle
betrekkinge met Chinese staatsinstellings. Deur die hele werkstuk word
hierdie risiko faktore ondersoek en in verband gebring met die algemene
politieke risiko klimaat, en word ook gebruik om gevolgtrekkinge te maak
aangaande die potensiaal van SAB-Millerse beleggingsplanne.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/49858 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Lanhove, Tom |
| Contributors | Brink, C., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 67 pages |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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