The performance of three methods of mortality modelling and forecasting are compared. These include the basic Lee–Carter and two functional demographic models; the basic Hyndman–Ullah and the weighted Hyndman–Ullah. Using age-specific data from the Human Mortality Database of two developed countries, France and the UK (England&Wales), these methods are compared; through within-sample forecasting for the years 1999-2018. The weighted Hyndman–Ullah method is adjudged superior among the three methods through a comparison of mean forecast errors and qualitative inspection per the dataset of the selected countries. The weighted HU method is then used to conduct a 32–year ahead forecast to the year 2050.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:mdh-54711 |
| Date | January 2021 |
| Creators | Ramos, Anthony Kojo |
| Publisher | Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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