Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation explores the potential of centralised, top-down procedural rules (also
known as budget-process rules) and independent fiscal councils to complement
numerical fiscal rules as devices for preventing fiscal profligacy. To this end, it studies
the connections between fiscal policymaking frameworks and fiscal outcomes in
fourteen European Union countries in the years from 1998 to 2004. The fiscal
policymaking frameworks of these countries contained various configurations of
numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, and the study uses differences in
the degrees to which the countries complied with the supranational rules of the Stability
and Growth Pact (SGP) as a measure of the efficacy of these configurations at preventing
fiscal profligacy.
The analysis itself consists of two parts. The first part – a cross-sectional analysis of all
fourteen countries – uses a set-theoretic technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative
comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify connections between various configurations of
the elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks and the degrees to which the countries
complied with the SGP rules. These connections are interpreted in terms of sufficiency
and necessity and used to identify pathways to consistent compliance with the SGP
rules. The second part of the analysis consists of case studies of three of the fourteen
countries (Finland, France and Ireland). The case studies are used to verify aspects of
the set-theoretic analysis, namely the specification of the set-theoretic model (especially
the influence of the preferences of policymakers on compliance with the SGP rules), the
accuracy of the quantitative measures of the efficacy of elements of fiscal policymaking
frameworks, the explanatory value of the solution pathways and the country-level
relevance of two hypotheses derived from the results of the analysis. The set-theoretic analysis finds some evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policymaking
frameworks consisting of combinations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal
councils, but establishes that such multifaceted frameworks were neither necessary nor
sufficient for preventing fiscal profligacy. The study also shows, in tentative fashion in
the set-theoretic analysis and more forcefully in the case studies, that the preferences of policymakers were critical determinants of the effectiveness of all types of fiscal
policymaking frameworks. Hence, it concludes that the potential of multifaceted fiscal
policymaking frameworks should not be exaggerated. In addition, it argues that an
unwavering commitment to fiscal prudence complemented by policymaking framework
elements chosen to overcome specific incentive distortions is a more promising
approach for preventing fiscal profligacy than such multifaceted frameworks per se.
More generally, the findings of the study confirm the scope for using fsQCA and other
case-oriented methods to complement regression-based analyses of the effectiveness of
fiscal policymaking frameworks. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die potensiaal van gesentraliseerde, bo-na-onder
begrotingsprosesreëls en onafhanklike fiskale rade om numeriese reëls aan te vul as
meganismes om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder. Met hierdie doel voor oë
bestudeer dit die verbande tussen fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en fiskale
uitkomste in veertien lidlande van die Europese Unie in die jare van 1998 tot 2004. Die
fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke van hierdie lande het verskeie konfigurasies van
numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, en die studie gebruik
verskille in die mate waartoe die lande die bonasionale reëls van die Stabiliteits- en
Groeiverdrag (“Stability and Growth Pact”, oftewel SGP) nagekom het as ‘n maatstaf van
hierdie konfigurasies se doelmatigheid met betrekking tot die verhindering van fiskale
spandabelrigheid. Die ontleding self bestaan uit twee dele. Die eerste deel – ‘n kruissnitontleding van al
veertien lande – gebruik ‘n versamelingsteoretiese tegniek was as “fuzzy-set qualitative
comparative analysis” (fsQCA) bekend staan om verbande te identifiseer tussen
verskillende konfigurasies van die elemente van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en
die mate waartoe die lande die SGP-reëls nagekom het. Hierdie verbande word aan die
hand van genoegsaamheid en noodsaaklikheid geïnterpreteer en gebruik om roetes na
nakoming van die SGP-reëls te identifiseer. Die tweede deel van die ontleding bestaan
uit gevallestudies van drie van die veertien lande (Finland, Frankryk en Ierland). Die
gevallestudies word gebruik om aspekte van die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding te
toets, naamlik die spesifikasie van die versamelingsteoretiese model (veral die invloed
van die voorkeure van beleidmakers op nakoming van die SGP-reëls), die akkuraatheid
van die kwantitatiewe maatstawwe van die doelmatigheid van elemente van fiskale
beleidmakingsraamwerke, die verklarende waarde van die oplossingsroetes asook die
tersaaklikheid vir individuele lande van twee hipoteses wat uit die resultate van die
ontleding voortvloei.
Die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding vind aanduidings van die doelmatigheid van
fiskale beleidsraamwerke wat kombinasies van numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, maar stel vas dat sulke saamgestelde raamwerke nóg noodsaaklik
nóg genoegsaam vir die verhindering van fiskale spandabelrigheid was. Die studie toon
ook, op tentatiewe wyse in die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding en meer oortuigend in
die gevallestudies, dat die voorkeure van beleidmakers deurslaggewende bepalers van
die doelmatigheid van alle tipes beleidmakingsraamwerke was. Dit kom dus tot die
gevolgtrekking dat die potensiaal van saamgestelde fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke
nie oordryf moet word nie. Voorts voer dit aan dat ‘n onwrikbare verbintenis tot fiskale
dissipline, aangevul deur elemente van beleidsmakingsraamwerke wat gekies is om
spesifieke verwringings van aansporings te bowe te kom, groter belofte inhou as ‘n
benadering om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder as sulke saamgestelde raamwerke
per se. Op ‘n breër vlak bevestig die studie dat daar heelwat ruimte bestaan om fsQCA
en ander metodes wat op gevalle konsentreer, te gebruik om regressie-ontledings van
die doelmatigheid van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke aan te vul.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/96005 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Siebrits, Franz Krige |
| Contributors | Calitz, Estian, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 181 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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