Market risk is one of the most prevailing risks to which financial institutions are exposed. The most popular approach in quantifying market risk is through Value at Risk. Organisations and regulators often require a long historical horizon of the affecting financial variables to estimate the risk exposures. A long horizon stresses the completeness of the available data; something risk applications need to handle. The goal of this thesis is to evaluate and propose methods to impute financial time series. The performance of the methods will be measured with respect to both price-, and risk metric replication. Two different use cases are evaluated; missing values randomly place in the time series and consecutively missing values at the end-point of a time series. In total, there are five models applied to each use case, respectively. For the first use case, the results show that all models perform better than the naive approach. The Lasso model lowered the price replication error by 35% compared to the naive model. The result from use case two is ambiguous. Still, we can conclude that all models performed better than the naive model concerning risk metric replication. In general, all models systemically underestimated the downstream risk metrics, implying that they failed to replicate the fat-tailed property of the price movement.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:umu-184162 |
| Date | January 2021 |
| Creators | Wall, Tobias, Titus, Jacob |
| Publisher | Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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