Abstract
With the processing of globalization and the large increases in international trade and openness, it is important to capture the business cycle correlation with the intimate countries for government to make better policies and keep the economy steady.
This study investigated the changes in relationships between the G7 business cycle after the European integration. Choosing 1993 the Europe Union (EU) commencement as the segment, we separated the sample period into 1965:1-1992:4 and 1993:1-2006:4.We adopted kinds of unit root tests to exam if these variables were stationary and the Johansen co-integration analysis to test whether the stationary long-run equilibrium exist or not. With the consideration of long run information, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied to study the relationship between the business cycles of United State, EU and the other G7 countries.
By Johansen co-integration analysis, we found that the stationary long-run relationship did exist between their industrial productions¡]IP¡^. In addition, the VECM evidence supported the emergence of two cyclically coherent groups -- the Euro-zone and the English-speaking countries -- after the EU commencement in 1993. In conclusion, with the greater correlation of business cycles, the party in office should take account of the business cycle movement of the closed countries more deliberately in this regionalization era.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0622107-080149 |
| Date | 22 June 2007 |
| Creators | Chen, Yi-Shin |
| Contributors | Ming-Jang Weng, Yung-hsiang Ying, Jai-His Weng |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0622107-080149 |
| Rights | not_available, Copyright information available at source archive |
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