全球氣候變遷天災頻傳,全球溫室效應亦導致氣候異常,颱風、洪水等天然災害發生的頻率與損失幅度亦逐漸增加,在地球環境越趨變化快速與惡化之下,政府如何因應天災所帶來之損失與影響亦越趨重要。
本研究宗旨希冀能提高政府對於地震等巨災風險管理的重視,研究風險管理如何緩和地震及風災洪水對台灣政府財政之損害。本文將以台灣地區之地震造成政府財產中橋樑損失資料以及風災洪水造成公部門建物內容物毀損資料,模擬出可能損失金額。分析政府在利用三種不同保險機制後政府之損失與風險分散程度,並以現行於台灣之住宅地震保險基金分層承擔風險機制為例,將所模擬出之政府財產總損失套入基金,擴大住宅地震保險基金的承保範圍並設立洪水基金,分析政府存在基金下之財政支出與損失波動度。另計算政府財產在三種保險機制設計下,不同風險偏好之政府所需繳納之保費;最後一部分將檢視發行地震巨災債券的價值變化。 / Because of global climate change, natural disasters frequently happened all over the world. Global warming leads to climate anomalies, the frequency and loss severity of typhoons, floods and other natural disasters have also increased steadily. And under the Earth's environment changes and deteriorates rapidly, how should the government response to natural disasters are becoming more and more important. The purpose of this study is to attach importance to earthquake or other catastrophe risk management, and how to mitigate earthquake and flood catastrophes damage to the Taiwan government.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the exposures of some public properties of Taiwan to earthquake and flood catastrophes. The research team was able to secure from National Center University two event loss tables on the earthquake risk of road bridges and the flood risk of government buildings. Based on these tables we simulated 500,000 earthquake and flood losses respectively and constructed two loss distributions. Then we imposed three insurance schemes to illustrate how risk management can mitigate the Nat Cat risks. We further enlarged the scope to all government properties based on the losses from the 921 earthquake and the Morakot typhoon. On these enlarged loss distributions we imposed risk management schemes similar to that of the Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund (TREIF) to investigate the potential benefits of risk management on the Nat Cat exposures of government properties. And we find optimal premiums under different insurance mechanism with different risk preferences of the government. The last part will examine the changes in the value of the issue of earthquake catastrophe bonds.
Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0099358018 |
Creators | 林芝伶 |
Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
Language | 中文 |
Detected Language | English |
Type | text |
Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
Page generated in 0.0014 seconds