全球氣候變遷天災頻傳，全球溫室效應亦導致氣候異常，颱風、洪水等天然災害發生的頻率與損失幅度亦逐漸增加，在地球環境越趨變化快速與惡化之下，政府如何因應天災所帶來之損失與影響亦越趨重要。 本研究宗旨希冀能提高政府對於地震等巨災風險管理的重視，研究風險管理如何緩和地震及風災洪水對台灣政府財政之損害。本文將以台灣地區之地震造成政府財產中橋樑損失資料以及風災洪水造成公部門建物內容物毀損資料，模擬出可能損失金額。分析政府在利用三種不同保險機制後政府之損失與風險分散程度，並以現行於台灣之住宅地震保險基金分層承擔風險機制為例，將所模擬出之政府財產總損失套入基金，擴大住宅地震保險基金的承保範圍並設立洪水基金，分析政府存在基金下之財政支出與損失波動度。另計算政府財產在三種保險機制設計下，不同風險偏好之政府所需繳納之保費；最後一部分將檢視發行地震巨災債券的價值變化。 / Because of global climate change, natural disasters frequently happened all over the world. Global warming leads to climate anomalies, the frequency and loss severity of typhoons, floods and other natural disasters have also increased steadily. And under the Earth's environment changes and deteriorates rapidly, how should the government response to natural disasters are becoming more and more important. The purpose of this study is to attach importance to earthquake or other catastrophe risk management, and how to mitigate earthquake and flood catastrophes damage to the Taiwan government. The purpose of this study is to estimate the exposures of some public properties of Taiwan to earthquake and flood catastrophes. The research team was able to secure from National Center University two event loss tables on the earthquake risk of road bridges and the flood risk of government buildings. Based on these tables we simulated 500,000 earthquake and flood losses respectively and constructed two loss distributions. Then we imposed three insurance schemes to illustrate how risk management can mitigate the Nat Cat risks. We further enlarged the scope to all government properties based on the losses from the 921 earthquake and the Morakot typhoon. On these enlarged loss distributions we imposed risk management schemes similar to that of the Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund (TREIF) to investigate the potential benefits of risk management on the Nat Cat exposures of government properties. And we find optimal premiums under different insurance mechanism with different risk preferences of the government. The last part will examine the changes in the value of the issue of earthquake catastrophe bonds.

隨著氣候變遷與溫室效應影響日益明顯，台灣近年發生極端強降雨颱風的次數越來越頻繁，更造成流域地區嚴重災情，而從莫拉克風災經驗可體會到家戶風險溝通的重要性，也意識到我國實務與學術上相關研究的缺乏，故本研究探討家戶風險溝通機制中各項重要因素與調適行為間的關係，以及找出影響家戶調適行為決策之關鍵因素，進而提出家戶風險溝通策略之改善建議，以促進家戶採取調適行為。 本研究經由文獻回顧建立家戶調適行為之風險溝通概念架構，依循此架構研擬問卷，以高屏溪流域地區家戶為研究對象進行問卷調查，透過結構方程模式(SEM)驗證風險溝通架構，了解風險溝通機制各項因素與影響調適行為各因素之關係，後以面對災害回應之強烈將調適行為積極程度分為「消極或低度積極」、「中度積極」與「高度積極」，運用多項式羅吉斯迴歸模型建立家戶應變措施決策模型與調適措施決策模型，找出影響家戶調適行為決策之關鍵因素。 研究結果顯示，調適行為受到內在認知的影響，而內在認知同時受風險溝通機制與外在環境之影響，就風險溝通機制而言，親友鄰居、村里長與地方政府等社區網絡為重要管道。影響調適行為之關鍵因素以災害認知為主，其次為調適行為認知，居住村里次之，其中災害認知與調適行為認知越高，越有可能採取較積極之調適行為，此外，由於自然社會環境、風險溝通特性與社會經濟背景等因素交互影響下，各村里在調適行為決策上也有所差異。最後依據實證結果，與水患自主防災社區風險溝通現況，提出改善家戶風險溝通之策略建議，期望增進風險溝通機制的完備與促進家戶採取調適行為，以減緩極端氣候造成的衝擊。 / Along with the intensification of global climate change and greenhouse effect, typhoons with extreme rainfall strike Taiwan more and more frequently, which cause severe disasters in watershed area. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we realized the importance of risk communication with households and also the lack of related academic research. As a result, this study aims to discuss important factors in risk communication mechanism and their relationships with adaptive behaviors. It also find out key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors. Based on literature review, this study build a conceptual framework of risk communication process to describe how to trigger adaptive behaviors and encourage adaptive behaviors with risk communication. This study send out questionnaires to the households in Kaoping River Watershed and use structural equation modeling(SEM) to verify the conceptual framework. Then according to attitude of positive degree, adaptive behaviors are classified into“passive or low”,“medium” and “high” levels. By multinomial logistic regression, an empirical analysis was performed to analyze the key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors. The results show that adaptive behaviors are affected by internal cognition and at the same time internal cognition are affected by risk communication mechanism and external environment. As for risk communication mechanism, family, friends, neighbors and local governments are crucial communication channel. Key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors are cognition of disaster and adaptive behavior. People with higher cognition of disaster and adaptive behavior would more likely to take positive adaptive behaviors. Besides, community they lived in is also a key factor. Because the interaction of environments, risk communication patterns and socioeconomic attributes, people from different communities would take different adaptive behaviors. Based on empirical results, this study propose suggestions of risk communication strategies in order to better the risk communication mechanism and encourage households to take adaptive behaviors.