隨著氣候變遷與溫室效應影響日益明顯，台灣近年發生極端強降雨颱風的次數越來越頻繁，更造成流域地區嚴重災情，而從莫拉克風災經驗可體會到家戶風險溝通的重要性，也意識到我國實務與學術上相關研究的缺乏，故本研究探討家戶風險溝通機制中各項重要因素與調適行為間的關係，以及找出影響家戶調適行為決策之關鍵因素，進而提出家戶風險溝通策略之改善建議，以促進家戶採取調適行為。 本研究經由文獻回顧建立家戶調適行為之風險溝通概念架構，依循此架構研擬問卷，以高屏溪流域地區家戶為研究對象進行問卷調查，透過結構方程模式(SEM)驗證風險溝通架構，了解風險溝通機制各項因素與影響調適行為各因素之關係，後以面對災害回應之強烈將調適行為積極程度分為「消極或低度積極」、「中度積極」與「高度積極」，運用多項式羅吉斯迴歸模型建立家戶應變措施決策模型與調適措施決策模型，找出影響家戶調適行為決策之關鍵因素。 研究結果顯示，調適行為受到內在認知的影響，而內在認知同時受風險溝通機制與外在環境之影響，就風險溝通機制而言，親友鄰居、村里長與地方政府等社區網絡為重要管道。影響調適行為之關鍵因素以災害認知為主，其次為調適行為認知，居住村里次之，其中災害認知與調適行為認知越高，越有可能採取較積極之調適行為，此外，由於自然社會環境、風險溝通特性與社會經濟背景等因素交互影響下，各村里在調適行為決策上也有所差異。最後依據實證結果，與水患自主防災社區風險溝通現況，提出改善家戶風險溝通之策略建議，期望增進風險溝通機制的完備與促進家戶採取調適行為，以減緩極端氣候造成的衝擊。 / Along with the intensification of global climate change and greenhouse effect, typhoons with extreme rainfall strike Taiwan more and more frequently, which cause severe disasters in watershed area. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we realized the importance of risk communication with households and also the lack of related academic research. As a result, this study aims to discuss important factors in risk communication mechanism and their relationships with adaptive behaviors. It also find out key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors. Based on literature review, this study build a conceptual framework of risk communication process to describe how to trigger adaptive behaviors and encourage adaptive behaviors with risk communication. This study send out questionnaires to the households in Kaoping River Watershed and use structural equation modeling(SEM) to verify the conceptual framework. Then according to attitude of positive degree, adaptive behaviors are classified into“passive or low”,“medium” and “high” levels. By multinomial logistic regression, an empirical analysis was performed to analyze the key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors. The results show that adaptive behaviors are affected by internal cognition and at the same time internal cognition are affected by risk communication mechanism and external environment. As for risk communication mechanism, family, friends, neighbors and local governments are crucial communication channel. Key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviors are cognition of disaster and adaptive behavior. People with higher cognition of disaster and adaptive behavior would more likely to take positive adaptive behaviors. Besides, community they lived in is also a key factor. Because the interaction of environments, risk communication patterns and socioeconomic attributes, people from different communities would take different adaptive behaviors. Based on empirical results, this study propose suggestions of risk communication strategies in order to better the risk communication mechanism and encourage households to take adaptive behaviors.

十八世紀的工業發展富裕了人類的物質生活，生態環境卻也逐遭破壞 ；人們因科技文明引發的現代風險的多樣性、全球性、不易衡量與不易預 測性，遂將傳統注重資源分配的「階級社會」帶領到新的注重風險如何在 社會中平等並合法分配的「風險社會」(Risk society) (Beck,1992)，社 會風險概念乃應運而生。從社會文明演進來看，現代風險與過去風險在本 質上有著極大差異，過去風險多以自然災害的威脅為主，而現代風險則以 科技進步帶來的威亦即公害佔多數，綜言之為風險的不確定性、風險承擔 的不公平性、影響的遲延性與風險產生的社會妥當性。也因如此風險管理 則具相當的「利益衡量」與「政策決擇」色彩，風險溝通遂乃成為有效風 險管理的主要因素，成為綜合其他風險議題如風險認知、風險評估、風險 管理等的橋樑。風險溝通與其他溝通議題的最大差別，前者尤強調人文層 面因素重於科學分析結果。建立一個合理可接受的風險水準與風險認知息 息相關，專家的科學分析結果固然重要，民眾對風險的了解卻多以一般知 識與過去生活經驗認知，再加上現代風險多涉及高度的科技性，專業術語 常令民眾產生距離與不信任感，在公害問題上糾紛多因而產生。風險溝通 除了儘量降低衝突外，更積極地為建立風險的正確認知，加強自我防禦機 能，故公共介入、民眾的參與對於事前與事後溝通的成效，可避免糾紛爭 端的發生。 從７０年代起公害糾紛屢見不鮮，抗議者手段皆多由緩和 後因意見得不到適切回應始引發衝突性高的行動；抗爭者與被抗議者亦多 有組織化趨勢；不管是「事前預防型」或「事後補救型」活動，政府的溝 通方式多仍停留在技術層面單向說服性的宣導亦多為被動；反觀國外對溝 通的努力較為積極，坦誠公開的溝通態度，重視一致、簡明的訊息揭露， 並考慮到居民心理壓力的疏解，強調風險溝通的地方時效性，這是國內糾 紛處理不足之處。由於糾紛事件中多有金錢賠償、健康檢查之訴求，故糾 紛處理與公害賠償制度在事後溝通上就佔極重要角色。日本的公害糾處理 與健康受害補償制度是除了民事訟訴外另闢之行政救濟管道，為衝突解決 與公害損害補償提供了訊速有效的溝通管道。我國有關公害糾紛處理已於 ８２年二月完成立法，至於公害補償卻散見於法令中，盼儘快建立污染者 付費原則、賠償基金的設立及加強公害保險功能，健全風險溝通的角色。

為有效減少因不可預期的極端氣候災害所產生的傷亡，可透過提升災害預警機制與災害認知使民眾具備更佳的災害應變決策能力。本研究選擇以台灣地區仍不常見的堰塞湖災害為研究對象以呼應極端氣候不可預期的特性，首先整理出居民在進行災害應變決策時的思考模式與程序，並釐清影響最後決策的各項因素，作為本研究主要研究架構的初擬參考；在分析工具方面則選用結構方程模式(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)，以同時解決將心理層面認知量化與各變項間直線迴歸關係的問題。 為將以上構想付諸實行，本研究先經由文獻回顧提出居民的災害應變決策概念架構，以此概念架構為基礎進行問卷設計，並在台東縣嘉蘭村與高雄市瑪雅里進行問卷調查作業，取得資料後再透過結構方程模式建立適合台灣地區民眾的堰塞湖災害決策模型；最後則針對本研究所建立的模型與分析，對現況風險溝通與預警機制提出相關政策建議。 在試圖達成前述目的的研究過程中，本研究發現台灣民眾在面對不熟悉的堰塞湖災害時，外在的預警訊息、過去的受災經驗，以及家戶狀況等三項因素對決策影響最大；另外雖然本研究所提出的決策架構在台東與高雄兩處受測範圍內均可適用，但仍會因聚落的受災經驗、居民屬性，以及交通區位等特性上的不同而在變項重要性上有所差異。最後，本研究提出相關風險溝通的策略建議，作為未來在面臨堰塞湖災害或其他極端氣候時的政策參考。 / In order to reduce the unpredictable and extreme weather disasters’ casualties effectively, we can improve disaster warning mechanisms and disaster awareness so that people have decision-making capacity for better disaster response. This study selects the Landslide dam’s disaster, which is not common in Taiwan, as the research object. First sorted out the residents’ disaster response policy and procedures of thinking, and clarified the factors affect the final decision as the beginning research framework of this study. Analysis tools are used in structural equation model (SEM), to address both the psychological aspects of cognitive variables to quantify and the question of the relationship between the linear regressions. On the research process, first put forward the residents’ conceptual framework for disaster response decision-making through the literature review, and using this conceptual framework as the basis for questionnaire design. Taitung County and Kaohsiung City are the questionnaire surveys in this study. After the data obtained, we established a suitable decision model for Taiwan’s Landslide dam disaster through the SEM tool. Finally, we can make recommendations on risk communication policy and early warning mechanism through this model. In the research results, this study found that the external warning message, past disaster experience, and household conditions are three of the most important decision factors when Taiwan public is facing the Landslide dam disaster. In addition, although this framework can be applied in Taitung and Kaohsiung areas, but there will still be differences because of the differences in some characteristics such as the affected experience, residents’ properties, and location of traffic. Last, this study proposes some strategies of risk communication as the policy reference when facing the Landslide dam’s disaster or other extreme weather disasters in the future.

面對高度科技化、工業化及專業化的社會，風險溝通已是政府面對環境爭議時難以規避的課題。回顧台灣近年來各項環境政策所遭遇的激烈抗爭，顯現政府風險溝通的不足。近年來興起的審議式民主，強調在理性與互惠的前提下，讓公民針對議題發表不同意見，成為政府替代傳統風險溝通的另一選項。尤其對於亟需完善風險溝通的高科技議題-「核廢料處置」而言，審議式民主似乎為其帶來契機。本研究透過分析「核廢何從電視公民討論會」審議活動過程政府與民眾的風險溝通關係，以及會議參與者的深度訪談資料，探討審議式會議如何落實風險溝通理念，藉此瞭解並反思審議式民主在台灣的實踐及其能否成為有效的風險溝通機制。 研究發現，在理論層面，審議式民主與風險溝通理論有許多相通之處；而在實踐層面，審議式民主得以落實風險溝通四項核心要素：「雙向互動」、「資訊公開、即時及更新」、「轉譯為常民語言」及「利害關係人參與」；除此之外，與會者及相關人員亦受到審議機制正向的影響；但在此會議中民眾與政府間信任關係的改善程度有限。本研究建議政府未來進行風險溝通時，應健全溝通管道、有效連結「會議結論」與「政策制定」、整合資訊公開管道並縮短數位落差、及處理與核能政策連動問題，方能有助於低放射性廢棄物的風險溝通。 / Risk communication is an unavoidable task when the government faces a highly industrialized and professionalized society. In the past years, environmental policies the government proposed and the protests these policies triggered show the deficiency of the government on risk communication. Recently, the rising deliberative democracy that emphasizes citizen dialogue on the basis of equality, rationality and reciprocity, could become an alternative to traditional risk communication for the government. Especially for the high-tech issue--disposal of nuclear waste-- which is desperate for comprehensive risk communication, deliberative democracy seems to bring the window of opportunity. Through examining the case of “Where Would the Nuclear Waste Go?” TV forum, this study explores risk communication between the government and citizens, and discusses how deliberative forum realizes the idea of risk communication in practice and delivers risk knowledge. Furthermore, this study rethinks the practice of deliberative democracy in Taiwan and accesses whether it could be an effective risk communication mechanism. This study discovers that there is no contradiction between the practice of deliberative forum and the theory of risk communication. Deliberative democracy facilitates four core elements of risk communication: “two-way communication,” “information disclosure, in time and update,” “transfer into the language of ordinary people” and “the participation of stakeholders.” In addition, the participants and staffs were empowered positively by the deliberative mechanism. However, the improvement of trust between the government and citizens is very limited. This study suggests that when conducting risk communication for the low-level radioactive waste issue, the government should enhance risk communication channels, link the conclusions of citizen forums to policy making, integrate various information disclosure mechanisms, bridge the digital divide, and deal with the problem related to the nuclear energy policy.

本論文以台灣「低放選址政策」的信任問題為主題，採用文獻研究、調查訪談、焦點座談、問卷調查等多元研究方法，一方面參照並補充TCC模型作為理論架構，分析「信任」如何分別透過其知識與非知識屬性，影響台東與金門兩縣民眾的最終處置場設施接受度，藉以充實對公共政策中不行動面向之理解，並增加對非科學理性因素之重視。另方面，則綜合實證分析結果，並參酌近期國/內外選址的風險溝通經驗，探討「低放選址政策」如何納入重建信任的風險溝通模式，以協調科學與民主、專家與民眾在決策過程中的關係。研究結果指出，「低放選址政策」的信任問題，彰顯了過去人們用以確保政府機關不負所託的科學理性及專家決策模式，在現代風險社會中，不再足以讓民眾繼續作出授予信任的判斷，並在風險議題中合作。有鑑於在信任的分類與運作模式中，受價值相似性啟發的信任，主導了對科學證據與信心的詮釋。因此，對風險議題進行社會選擇的決策模式，必須能夠重塑集體的價值相似性，形成新的信任穩定機制。本論文乃建議一個重視「代表性、共同框架、決策影響力」的參與式對話平台，將可藉由政策審議架構，尋求在共享價值下，可被普遍接受的正義原則及解決之道，以提升「低放選址政策」的接受度與正當性。 / In this study, the author focused on the trust problems related to the “low radioactive waste disposal site selection” topic and adopted the literature review, survey interview, focus group, and questionnaire survey study methods. One of the objectives was to reference and supplement the TCC model as the theoretical framework to analyze how “trust” as well as its knowledge and non-knowledge attributes can affect acceptance for the final disposal site by the people of Taitung and Kinmen in order to enrich our understanding of the inaction in public policies and strengthen the emphasis on non-scientific rationality factors. The other objective was to incorporate the analysis and empirical results, reference the recent domestic/foreign disposal site selection risk communication experiences, and explore how to incorporate a trust rebuilding risk-communication method into the low radioactive waste disposal site selection, in order to coordinate the relationships between science and democracy as well as the experts and citizens throughout the policy-making process. The trust problems related to low radioactive waste disposal site selection discussed in this study highlight the fact that the scientific rationality and expert policy-making mode relied upon by the government agencies are no longer sufficient for the people to trust the government’s judgments or cooperate in the risk topics during the modern risk society. In terms of TCC model, trust inspired by value similarities drives the interpretation of scientific evidence and confidence. Therefore, the policy-making process that enable to risk-topic related social choice must be able to reshape the shared value and form a new trust stabilization mechanism. In this study, the author proposed a participative discourse platform that emphasizes on “representation, collaborative framing, and decision impacts” may adopt the framework for policy deliberation in search of shared values, as well as generally accepted justice principles and solutions, in order to enhance the acceptance and legitimacy for the low radioactive waste disposal site selection.