過去雖有文獻探討國內房地產市場泡沫化問題，卻僅從租金收益的單一角度衡量房價基值，對於自有住宅比例較高的台灣而言，家戶所得不僅代表購屋者的負擔能力，更是構成房價基值的重要因素。有鑑於此，本研究分別從租金收益及家戶所得兩者不同角度下，透過資產市場現值模型，分別建立房價基值模型分析泡沫化現象。此外，過去文獻僅從檢定價格波動穩定性與否或將殘差項視為泡沫來研究泡沫化問題，然泡沫為不可觀察之變數，故本文使用具有可估計不可觀察變數特質的狀態空間模型（STATE-SPACE MODEL），推估泡沫價格，分析在不同時期下泡沫的規模大小。
在實證方面，本研究使用台北市1973Q2至2008Q1共140筆住宅價格資料，發現由租金與所得所計算之房價泡沫規模略為一致。在1988~1990年房市泡沫化時期，所得推估之泡沫規模達到高峰，泡沫價格占市價約47%；而由租金面亦計算出泡沫價格占市價約54%的高比例。而在2008年房價持續上漲的情況下，兩者泡沫價格亦呈現相同上升之走勢，泡沫價格近市價38%，租金推估泡沫價格占市價27%；此結果表示出目前房市有泡沫化之跡象，現階段欲購屋自住者不宜進入市場，宜審慎等待時機。而本文認為房價所得比或是房價租金比皆是作為衡量台北市房地產市場泡沫化現象之重要指標，另外就總體因素分析而言，房價上漲率、貨幣供給額、貸款利率與大盤股價指數皆為影響泡沫之重要因素，且經由實證發現所得所推估之泡沫價格較具有市場代表性。 / The past literatures about Taipei housing price bubble has only been measured the fundamental price by rent. However, the housing owner ratio is so high in Taiwan that housing income is not only regarded as affordability but also an important fundamental factor of housing price. According to the above, we focus on different fundamental models that define market fundamental price to analyses the bubble price from expected present value of both rent and permanent housing income. On the other hand, different from lots of literature testing the housing price volatility or residual to measure bubble prices, because housing bubble is an unobservable variable, we apply State-Space Model which is good for testing an invisible factor to estimate bubble in the housing markets of Taipei.
This paper tries to test whether there was a housing price bubble using Taipei housing price index ranged from 1973Q1 to 2008Q1. The findings indicate that there appeared bubble ratio from 1988 to 1990, 47% of the housing price based on housing income and 54 % of the housing price based on rent. In 2008 when housing price continually keeps rising, bubble price ratios are close to 38% and 27% respectively. Those results show that Taipei seems to have sign of a bubble in this moment and housing buyers should concern it with more caution. Secondly, both price-income ratio and price-rent ratio are good indicators to measure housing bubble prices. Beside, we find macro economic factors change, such as the growth rate of housing price, M2, mortgage rate, and stock price index, are important to influence the size of housing bubble. Thirdly, bubble price estimated by housing income has a better performance than rent.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0095257001 |
| Creators | 鄧筱蓉 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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