Broad-scale forest die-off associated with drought and heat has now been reported from every forested continent, posing a global-scale challenge to forest management. Climate-driven die-off is frequently compounded with other drivers of tree mortality, such as altered land use, wildfire, and invasive species, making forest management increasingly complex. Facing similar challenges, rangeland managers have widely adopted the approach of developing conceptual models that identify key ecosystem states and major types of transitions between those states, known as "state-and-transition models" (S&T models). Using expert opinion and available research, the development of such conceptual S&T models has proven useful in anticipating ecosystem changes and identifying management actions to undertake or to avoid. In cases where detailed data are available, S&T models can be developed into probabilistic predictions, but even where data are insufficient to predict transition probabilities, conceptual S&T models can provide valuable insights for managing a given ecosystem and for comparing and contrasting different ecosystem dynamics. We assembled a synthesis of 14 forest die-off case studies from around the globe, each with sufficient information to infer impacts on forest dynamics and to inform management options following a forest die-off event. For each, we developed a conceptual S&T model to identify alternative ecosystem states, pathways of ecosystem change, and points where management interventions have been, or may be, successful in arresting or reversing undesirable changes. We found that our diverse set of mortality case studies fit into three broad classes of ecosystem trajectories: (1) single-state transition shifts, (2) ecological cascading responses and feedbacks, and (3) complex dynamics where multiple interactions, mortality drivers, and impacts create a range of possible state transition responses. We integrate monitoring and management goals in a framework aimed to facilitate development of conceptual S&T models for other forest die-off events. Our results highlight that although forest die-off events across the globe encompass many different underlying drivers and pathways of ecosystem change, there are commonalities in opportunities for successful management intervention.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/626548 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Cobb, Richard C., Ruthrof, Katinka X., Breshears, David D., Lloret, Francisco, Aakala, Tuomas, Adams, Henry D., Anderegg, William R. L., Ewers, Brent E., Galiano, Lucía, Grünzweig, José M., Hartmann, Henrik, Huang, Cho-ying, Klein, Tamir, Kunert, Norbert, Kitzberger, Thomas, Landhäusser, Simon M., Levick, Shaun, Preisler, Yakir, Suarez, Maria L., Trotsiuk, Volodymyr, Zeppel, Melanie J. B. |
| Contributors | Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Univ Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Natural Resources Management & Environmental Sciences Department; California State Polytechnic University; San Luis Obispo California 93407 USA, School of Veterinary and Life Sciences; Murdoch University; 90 South Street Perth Western Australia 6150 Australia, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Arizona; 1064 East Lowell Street Tucson Arizona 85721 USA, Center of Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF); Universitat Autònoma of Barcelona; Edifici C, Campus UAB, 08193 Bellaterra 26 Barcelona Spain, Department of Forest Sciences; University of Helsinki; Latokartanonkaari 7 Helsinki FI-00014 Finland, Department of Plant Biology, Ecology, and Evolution; Oklahoma State University; 301 Physical Sciences Stillwater Oklahoma 74074 USA, Department of Biology; University of Utah; Salt Lake City Utah 84112 USA, Department of Botany and Program in Ecology and Wyoming EPSCoR; University of Wyoming; Laramie Wyoming 82071 USA, Lliçà d'Amunt Barcelona 08186 Spain, Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment; The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; P.O. Box 12 Rehovot Israel, Department of Biogeochemical Processes; Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry; Hans Knöll Strasse 10 Jena 07745 Germany, Department of Geography; National Taiwan University; 1 Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road Taipei 10617 Taiwan, Weizmann Institute of Science; Rehovot 76100 Israel, University of Freiburg; Tennenbacherstrasse 4 Freiburg 79106 Germany, Departamento de Ecología; INIBIOMA-CONICET; Universidad Nacional del Comahue; Quintral 1250 Bariloche 8400 Argentina, Department of Renewable Resources; University of Alberta; Edmonton Alberta T6G 2E3 Canada, Department of Biogeochemical Processes; Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry; Hans Knöll Strasse 10 Jena 07745 Germany, Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment; The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; P.O. Box 12 Rehovot Israel, INIBIOMA-Universidad Nacionaldel Comahue; Quintral 1250 Bariloche 8400 Argentina, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; Kamycka 129 Prague 16521 Czech Republic, Faculty of Pharmacy; University of Sydney; Camperdown New South Wales 2006 Australia |
| Publisher | WILEY |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article |
| Rights | © 2017 Cobb et al. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. |
| Relation | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2034 |
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