本研究旨在探討我國新上市公司營運波動程度對財務預測修正之影響及經營績效指標與強制性財務預測修正之關連性。根據以往許多研究發現，管理當局常有隱惡揚善之心態，致上市公司財務預測迭有更新情事，且其頻率及次數不低，故本研究擬針對此現象，試圖反推出公司可能之真正業績，然而公司修正財務預測原因相當多，例如：匯率變動、公司發生重大災害、簽訂重大產銷契約等內外因素極多，本研究先對公司營運波動影響財務預測之行為先將以控制，再來檢測經營績效指標與強制性財務預測修正之關連性
研究之樣本涵蓋期間自民國八十年六月至民國八十五年底止，其實證結果，彙總如下：
一、就營運波動程度對財務預測修正之影響而言，實證結果發現：（一）若以各新上市公司之前五年經營績效指標之標準差來衡量，其與財務預測修正之次數與幅度並無顯著相關。（二）若消除規模效應後，僅有每股盈餘之波動與本研究定義之調整後修正幅度呈正相關。
二、而在樂觀程度與財務預測修正之關連性方面，僅營業毛利在各模式中，皆達顯著水準，然而；就自變數方向性而言，各變數多為正向，與假說相符，惟變數中，僅有營業利益及本期稅後淨利與假說之方向相異，以營業利益來說，其原因可能為，營業毛利與營業利益中尚包括聯屬公司間未實現銷貨，而上市公司多有聯屬公司之情況來看，聯屬公司之營運波動程度可能未與該上市公司一致所致，故以營業利益來衡量營運風險可能無法有效解釋公司強制性財務預測之修正行為，而本期稅後淨利與假說之方向不同，究其原因可能為，在樣本中，電子業為多數，而其中許多公司因稅法（例如：產業促進升級條例等）在產業政策鼓勵之考量下，許多公司皆有可抵減之遞延所得稅，致使得經常利益及本期稅後淨利非成正相關所致。 / This study aims to examine the rlationship between the revision of mandatory forecast and the change in operating peformance. This study contends that the forecast revision should significantly correlate with change in operating performance. No such study has investigated this issue in the past literature; thus, this is an important issus. This study selects samples from the period between June 30, 1991 and December 31, 1996.
The empirical findings of this study can be summarized as follows.
The standard deviation of operating income five years prior to IPO (Initial Public Offering) cannot explain the volatility of operating performance.
Only the change in EPS (Earnings Per Share) after controlling size effect can sufficiently explain the cahnge in operating performance.
If the profitability is defined as gross profit, the change in operating performance can indeed explain the revision of mandatory forecast.
The directions of changes in operating income and income after taxes are different from the ones predicted by hypothesis 3 in this study.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002002135 |
| Creators | 施清輝 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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