氣候變遷與脆弱度是近年國際的發燒話題，水災、旱災等發生次次數大為提高，台灣一樣是不能倖免於外而面臨多種災害。在許多文獻指出，人口集中、都市開發將增加脆弱程度，加上國內近年興起對災害及環境脆弱度的重視，近年多位學者也致力於災害脆弱度的研究。是故，都市發展與災害發生在人口稠密的都市地區，評估和解決洪災、水災的問題是極為重要的。在計劃解決災害之前，如何做好整體實質指標化的作業，讓災害的評估更有具體的參考功能，提供地區內防災、空間規劃與土地使用檢討等，將是探討的主要課題。
本研究將探究脆弱度的內涵，擬出脆弱度評估指標，藉由模糊德爾菲法的專家問卷分析，建立指標體系；之後再應用多準則評估方法中的層級分析法與網絡分析法，加以找出都市脆弱度指標的階層關係與權重，有助最後完成都會區脆弱度及回復力指標之體系。最後針對擬出的指標體系，將應用於台灣主要都會區做為實證分析，並檢視此指標的分析結果是否符合過去或現在的情況，有無改進之處與後續研究。
研究成果兼納脆弱度各種相關的評估價值與面向，包括暴露性、敏感度與回復力，進行模糊德爾菲專家問卷，對指標體系之調整與修正，確立都會區颱洪災害脆弱度之評估架構，建立六大面向、二十七項指標的評估體系。整合不同領域專家對都會區颱洪災害脆弱度的評估，對這六大面向有一定程度的共識。從本研究也發現，正向面向的軟硬體設施、整備與應變能力與重建與復原能力在脆弱度的評估上佔有半數以上的權重。最後就決策群體的意見為考量，對各主要都會區的颱洪災害脆弱度做評比。 / Climate change and vulnerability are recent fever topics. Floods, drought and other disasters of occurrence increase. Taiwan is not immune to the outside face a variety of disasters. Many papers pointed out that the concentrated population and urban development will increase the vulnerability. In recent years, domestic disasters and environmental vulnerability get a number of scholars' attention to study disaster vulnerability. Therefore, urban development and disaster in a densely populated urban areas, assessment and settlement of flood problem is paramount importance. Before the plans to solve the disaster, how to do a good indicator of the overall substance of the operation, let the assessment of disaster is more specific reference to function, to provide disaster areas, space planning and land use review will be the main topics.
This study will explore the connotations of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of the proposed indicators by the expert on Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire analysis, the establishment of index system; after the application of multi-criteria assessment of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process, to be to identify indicators of vulnerability of urban class relations and the weight of the metropolitan area will help to finalize the vulnerability and resilience of the system indicators. Finally, the proposed target system, will be applied to the major metropolitan area in Taiwan as empirical analysis, and view the results of the analysis of this indicator is consistent with the past or the present situation, any improvement with the follow-up study.
Research results satisfied all relevant vulnerability assessment of the value-oriented, including exposure, sensitivity and recovery, Fuzzy Delphi survey index system of adjustments and amendments to the metropolitan areas of Taiwan to establish vulnerability of flood disaster assessment framework. Established of six turn towards and 27 indicators to assess the system. Experts in the field of integration of different metropolitan areas of Taiwan, flood disaster vulnerability assessment for the six degree of consensus. From this study also found that forward-hardware and software infrastructure oriented, preparedness and response capabilities and the ability of reconstruction and rehabilitation of the assessment of vulnerability occupy more than half the weight. Finally, the decision-making groups for consideration of all the
major metropolitan areas of Taiwan do flood disaster vulnerability assessment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0096257017 |
| Creators | 張竣維 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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