Uncertainty is pervasive in decision-making, and the research community within both strategy and intelligence agrees upon the challenges in predicting the future. Despite this, analysis of intelligence failures ex-post tends to be the dominant approach, and a collective taxonomy of uncertainty is yet to be agreed upon. This interview study strives to change the perspective and study the understanding of uncertainty ex-ante within, and between, Must and the Swedish MoD to ascertain whether the understanding is mutual within the context of their institutional dialogue. The result shows both variations and commonalities. Variations points to emotional aspects of uncertainty as well as aspects of uncertainty within an adversary. Variations are found both within, and between, the groups. Aspects regarding knowledge production presents a common view, however a close dialogue that promotes trust and an openness for diverse perspectives, questions and awareness of uncertainties is essential.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:fhs-11834 |
| Date | January 2023 |
| Creators | Andersson, Emma |
| Publisher | Försvarshögskolan |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | Swedish |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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