There are many unsolved questions about the future of climate, and most of them are due to lack of knowledgeabout the complex system of atmosphere, but still there are models that produce relatively realistic projectionsof the future although there are uncertainties in the presentation of them, and that's where statistical methodscould be of help. Here a short introduction is given to the projection of future climate with GCM ensembles andthe uncertainties about them, the emerging probabilistic approach, as well as the REA (Reliability EnsembleAverage) method for measuring the reliability of the model projections. In order to have an impression of theresults of the GCM ensemble results and their uncertainties the results of the weather forecast over a time periodof one year in three dierent cities of Sweden is studied as well.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-175770 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Mohammadipour Gishani, Azadeh |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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