Thesis. 1975. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences. / Bibliography: leaves 190-202. / by Kate Hadley. / Ph.D.

The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by a high degree of spatiotemporal complexity. Although numerous patterns, e.g. fore- and aftershock sequences, are well-known, the underlying mechanisms are not observable and thus not understood. Because the recurrence times of large earthquakes are usually decades or centuries, the number of such events in corresponding data sets is too small to draw conclusions with reasonable statistical significance. Therefore, the present study combines both, numerical modeling and analysis of real data in order to unveil the relationships between physical mechanisms and observational quantities. The key hypothesis is the validity of the so-called "critical point concept" for earthquakes, which assumes large earthquakes to occur as phase transitions in a spatially extended many-particle system, similar to percolation models. New concepts are developed to detect critical states in simulated and in natural data sets. The results indicate that important features of seismicity like the frequency-size distribution and the temporal clustering of earthquakes depend on frictional and structural fault parameters. In particular, the degree of quenched spatial disorder (the "roughness") of a fault zone determines whether large earthquakes occur quasiperiodically or more clustered. This illustrates the power of numerical models in order to identify regions in parameter space, which are relevant for natural seismicity. The critical point concept is verified for both, synthetic and natural seismicity, in terms of a critical state which precedes a large earthquake: a gradual roughening of the (unobservable) stress field leads to a scale-free (observable) frequency-size distribution. Furthermore, the growth of the spatial correlation length and the acceleration of the seismic energy release prior to large events is found. The predictive power of these precursors is, however, limited. Instead of forecasting time, location, and magnitude of individual events, a contribution to a broad multiparameter approach is encouraging. / Das Auftreten von Erdbeben zeichnet sich durch eine hohe raumzeitliche Komplexität aus. Obwohl zahlreiche Muster, wie Vor- und Nachbeben bekannt sind, weiß man wenig über die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen, da diese sich direkter Beobachtung entziehen. Die Zeit zwischen zwei starken Erdbeben in einer seismisch aktiven Region beträgt Jahrzehnte bis Jahrhunderte. Folglich ist die Anzahl solcher Ereignisse in einem Datensatz gering und es ist kaum möglich, allein aus Beobachtungsdaten statistisch signifikante Aussagen über deren Eigenschaften abzuleiten. Die vorliegende Arbeit nutzt daher numerische Modellierungen einer Verwerfungszone in Verbindung mit Datenanalyse, um die Beziehung zwischen physikalischen Mechanismen und beobachteter Seismizität zu studieren. Die zentrale Hypothese ist die Gültigkeit des sogenannten "kritischen Punkt Konzeptes" für Seismizität, d.h. starke Erdbeben werden als Phasenübergänge in einem räumlich ausgedehnten Vielteilchensystem betrachtet, ähnlich wie in Modellen aus der statistischen Physik (z.B. Perkolationsmodelle). Es werden praktische Konzepte entwickelt, die es ermöglichen, kritische Zustände in simulierten und in beobachteten Daten sichtbar zu machen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass wesentliche Eigenschaften von Seismizität, etwa die Magnitudenverteilung und das raumzeitliche Clustern von Erdbeben, durch Reibungs- und Bruchparameter bestimmt werden. Insbesondere der Grad räumlicher Unordnung (die "Rauhheit") einer Verwerfungszone hat Einfluss darauf, ob starke Erdbeben quasiperiodisch oder eher zufällig auftreten. Dieser Befund zeigt auf, wie numerische Modelle genutzt werden können, um den Parameterraum für reale Verwerfungen einzugrenzen. Das kritische Punkt Konzept kann in synthetischer und in beobachteter Seismizität verifiziert werden. Dies artikuliert sich auch in Vorläuferphänomenen vor großen Erdbeben: Die Aufrauhung des (unbeobachtbaren) Spannungsfeldes führt zu einer Skalenfreiheit der (beobachtbaren) Größenverteilung; die räumliche Korrelationslänge wächst und die seismische Energiefreisetzung wird beschleunigt. Ein starkes Erdbeben kann in einem zusammenhängenden Bruch oder in einem unterbrochenen Bruch (Vorbeben und Hauptbeben) stattfinden. Die beobachtbaren Vorläufer besitzen eine begrenzte Prognosekraft für die Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit starker Erdbeben - eine präzise Vorhersage von Ort, Zeit, und Stärke eines nahenden Erdbebens ist allerdings nicht möglich. Die genannten Parameter erscheinen eher vielversprechend als Beitrag zu einem umfassenden Multiparameteransatz für eine verbesserte zeitabhängige Gefährdungsabschätzung.

The Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica is unusually close to the Middle America Trench (MAT), such that interface locking along the megathrust is observable under land. Here, rapid convergence between the downgoing Cocos and the over-riding Caribbean plates at ~85mm/yr allows for observable high strain rates, frequent large earthquakes and ongoing micro-seismicity. By taking advantage of this ideal location, a network of 20 on-land broadband seismometers was established in cooperation between UC Santa Cruz, Georgia Tech, and OVSICORI, with most stations operating since 2008. To evaluate what seismicity tells us about the ongoing state of coupling along the interface, we must consistently evaluate the location and magnitude of ongoing micro- seismicity. Because of large levels of anthropogenic, biologic, and coastal noise, automatic detection of earthquakes remains problematic in this region. Thus, we resorted to detailed manual investigation of earthquake phases. So far, we have detected nearly 7,000 earthquakes below or near Nicoya between February and August 2009. From these events we evaluate the fine-scale frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) along the subduction megathrust. The results from this b-value mapping‟ are compared with an earlier study of the seismicity 9 years prior. In addition, we evaluate them relative to the latest geodetically derived locking. Preliminary comparisons of spatial and temporal variations of the b-values will be reported here. Because ongoing manual detection of earthquakes is extremely laborious and some events might be easily neglected, we are implementing a match-filter detection algorithm to search for new events from the continuous seismic data. This new approach has been previously successful in identifying aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. To do so, we use the waveforms of 858 analyst-detected events as templates to search for similarly repeating events during the same periods that have been manually detected. Preliminary results on the effectiveness of this technique are reported. The overall goal of this research is to evaluate the evolution of stress along the megathrust that may indicate the location and magnitude of potentially large future earthquakes. To do so, I make the comparison between the FMD and the interface locking. Only positive correlations are observed in the Nicoya region. The result is different from the one derived from the seismic data set that was recorded 9 years before our data. Therefore, to substantiate the causes for the different relationships between the b-value and the coupling degree, we need additional data with more reliable magnitudes.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2010. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references. / Large earthquake rupture and triggering mechanisms that drive seismicity in subduction zones are investigated in this thesis using a combination of earthquake observations, statistical and physical modeling. A comparison of the rupture characteristics of M 7.5 earthquakes with fore-arc geological structure suggests that long-lived frictional heterogeneities (asperities) are primary controls on the rupture extent of large earthquakes. To determine when and where stress is accumulating on the megathrust that could cause one of these asperities to rupture, this thesis develops a new method to invert earthquake catalogs to detect space-time variations in stressing rate. This algorithm is based on observations that strain transients due to aseismic processes such as fluid flow, slow slip, and afters lip trigger seismicity, often in the form of earthquake swarms. These swarms are modeled with two common approaches for investigating time-dependent driving mechanisms in earthquake catalogs: the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model [Ogata, 1988] and the physically-based rate-state friction model [Dieterich, 1994]. These approaches are combined into a single model that accounts for both aftershock activity and variations in background seismicity rate due to aseismic processes, which is then implemented in a data assimilation algorithm to invert catalogs for space-time variations in stressing rate. The technique is evaluated with a synthetic test and applied to catalogs from the Salton Trough in southern California and the Hokkaido corner in northeastern Japan. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can successfully identify aseismic transients in a multi-decade earthquake catalog, and may also ultimately be useful for mapping spatial variations in frictional conditions on the plate interface. / by Andrea Lesley Llenos. / Ph.D.