This study examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the trade flows of Sweden in the presence of so-called structural breaks. The purpose is rooted in the hypothesis that the real exchange rate has been disconnected from global trade flows in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. Using both aggregated and bilateral trade data from Sweden’s six major trading partners from the period 2004 to 2018, significant breaks are detected in 10 out of 14 cases by the Bai and Perron (1998) approach, indicating that the effect of the exchange rate has changed. However, the breaks are widespread and the coefficient estimates show no clear pattern and hence unequivocal evidence for the hypothesis of a disconnect. Despite the ambiguous evidence, the cointegration tests suggests that there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and trade flows of Sweden.

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Yes / This paper uses a leading UK supermarket’s loyalty card database to assess the effectiveness and impact of the 2004 UK reduced salt campaign. We present an econometric analysis of purchase data to assess the effectiveness of the Food Standard Agency’s (FSA) ‘reduced salt campaign’. We adopt a general approach to determining structural breaks in the time series of purchase data, using unit root tests whereby structural breaks are endogenously determined from the data. We find only limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of the FSA’s reduced salt campaign. Our results support existing findings in the literature that have used alternative methodologies to examine the impact of information campaigns on consumer choice of products with high salt content. / UK Food Standards Agency (FSA Project Code: D03008)

This paper examines the relationship between virtual currency, the Bitcoin, and the real economy. In the first part the description of the term virtual currency is provided with special focus on Bitcoin. Also the legal and taxation issues are discussed. In the main part the volatility of Bitcoin is inspected using various models from Autoregressive heteroskedasticity models family. We found that the volatility of Bitcoin differs significantly through time and that this relation is captured best by T-GARCH (1,1) model. Finally the relationship between Bitcoin and real economy indicators is observed to be inconsistent and mostly insignificant in time. Thus we conclude that the independency of Bitcoin cannot be rejected. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Ao recuperar dados da década de 60 ao momento atual, o estudo acompanha a evolução do investimento no setor sob diferentes arranjos institucionais. A análise é circunscrita aos segmentos rodoviário, ferroviário, energia elétrica e telecomunicações. As séries são submetidas a testes econométricos propostos em Bai e Perron (1998, 2003b) que, em última instância, procuram identificar eventuais quebras estruturais, associando-as às mudanças institucionais. As quebras encontradas demarcam o ápice e o esgotamento do padrão anterior de organização do setor. Apenas no segmento de telecomunicações é encontrada quebra relacionada ao novo arranjo setorial. Além de acompanhar a evolução dos segmentos abordados, o trabalho apresenta base conceitual para fundamentar a análise dos fenômenos ocorridos nos últimos anos. / This work follows the investment evolution in the infrastructure sector since the 60s. The investigated series are subjected to econometric tests proposed by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003b) that, ultimately, seek to identify possible structural breaks and try to link them to institutional changes. The follow segments were: road, rail, electric power and telecommunications. The tests found breaks related to the peak and the collapse of the former arrangement reforms, respectively in mid-70s and in late 80s. The only break associated with recent changes was found in the telecommunications segment. Additionally, this work presents conceptual basis to support the analysis of the recent developments in the infrastructure sector.

De acordo com o trabalho de Brady (2008), mudanças estruturais na economia norte-americana que permitiram um aumento do crédito ao consumidor teriam tornado a suavização do consumo uma realidade. No entanto, ele estima um modelo de consumo levando em conta quebras estruturais encontradas nas séries do crescimento das variáveis, o que não implica, necessariamente, que essas quebras também estão presentes no modelo de consumo. Neste trabalho, utilizamos uma metodologia que permite a presença de regressores endógenos na equação de teste e procuramos as quebras diretamente no modelo de consumo. Os resultados indicam que o procedimento adotado por Brady (2008) não e adequado para determinar as datas das quebras do modelo de consumo. / According to Brady (2008), structural changes in the American economy that allowed an expansion of the consumer credit would have made consumption smoothing a reality. However, he estimates a model of consumption based on structural breaks found in the consumption and credit growth rates, which doesn\'t imply, necessarily, that those breaks are also present in the consumption\'s model. In this work, we use a methodology that is able to _nd multiple breaks when the regressors are endogenous and search the breaks directly in the consumption\'s model. Our results indicate that imposing the breaks as Brady (2008) did is not adequate to determine the break dates in the consumption\'s model.

Στην παρούσα μελέτη εξετάζεται ο εντοπισμός διαρθρωτικών μεταβολών εφαρμόζοντας έναν έλεγχο τύπου σωρευτικών αθροισμάτων τετραγώνων και συγκεκριμένα τη στατιστική των Kokoszka και Leipus σε σειρές αποδόσεων του Χρηματιστηρίου Αθηνών. Η ανάλυση στηρίζεται στην εφαρμογή ενός GARCH (1,1) υποδείγματος. / -

Στην παρούσα εργασία παρουσιάζονται οι έλεγχοι για διαρθρωτικές μεταβολές στις αποδόσεις χρηματοοικονομικών χρονοσειρών που διερευνώνται στην διεθνή βιβλιογραφία. Έλεγχοι τύπου σωρευτικών αθροισμάτων (CUSUM) όπως των Kokoszka και Leipus, ο LM και ο LR έλεγχος του Andrews και των Bai και Perron αντίστοιχα και ο έλεγχος τύπου ελαχίστων τετραγώνων των Lavielle και Moullines. Τέλος εφαρμόζουμε τον έλεγχο των Kokoszka και Leipus για την εύρεση διαρθρωτικών μεταβολών στους δείκτες NASDAQ και S&P500. / --

Hedge fund managers are characterised as either market timers or asset pickers . Their superior performance can be attributed to either timing skill, selection ability or a combination of both. In the existing literature, average hedge fund performance across the entire time span under investigation is usually investigated and measured, and hence, potentially certain subtle but important features exhibited in different time periods can be averaged out in the analysis. This thesis investigates the structural breaks in the selection ability and timing skill of hedge fund managers. This research issue is of particular importance when the hedge fund performance before, during and after the recent financial crisis is compared and contrasted. This thesis conducts a structural break analysis of hedge fund managers performance in relation to market-wide liquidity and liquidity commonality in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Liquidity commonality captures the co-movement of individual asset liquidities. The measure adopted in the existing literature has several limitations. This thesis proposes a new measure, termed the Beta Index, which is derived from the time-varying exposure of individual liquidities to market liquidity movements. It is shown that the developed Beta Index is more able to identify the level of liquidity commonality in the FX market. It is also more flexible in measuring commonality with different data sampling frequency. The obtained empirical results have some practical implications. They show that the selection skill and timing ability of hedge fund managers are subject to regime switches. Under severe market conditions, most hedge fund managers possess the skill to time FX market-wide liquidity and are able to reduce losses from the FX market by reducing their funds FX exposure prior to the FX market-wide liquidity deteriorations. In the meantime, most hedge fund managers are able to deliver excess returns from time to time due to their selection ability. However, when sudden shocks of crisis occur, they fail to forecast the unexpected behaviour in the price of individual assets underlying the funds and display unsuccessful selection ability. In addition, the results suggest that many hedge funds are exposed to the FX liquidity commonality risk which impairs hedging strategies and diversification performance.

De acordo com o trabalho de Brady (2008), mudanças estruturais na economia norte-americana que permitiram um aumento do crédito ao consumidor teriam tornado a suavização do consumo uma realidade. No entanto, ele estima um modelo de consumo levando em conta quebras estruturais encontradas nas séries do crescimento das variáveis, o que não implica, necessariamente, que essas quebras também estão presentes no modelo de consumo. Neste trabalho, utilizamos uma metodologia que permite a presença de regressores endógenos na equação de teste e procuramos as quebras diretamente no modelo de consumo. Os resultados indicam que o procedimento adotado por Brady (2008) não e adequado para determinar as datas das quebras do modelo de consumo. / According to Brady (2008), structural changes in the American economy that allowed an expansion of the consumer credit would have made consumption smoothing a reality. However, he estimates a model of consumption based on structural breaks found in the consumption and credit growth rates, which doesn\'t imply, necessarily, that those breaks are also present in the consumption\'s model. In this work, we use a methodology that is able to _nd multiple breaks when the regressors are endogenous and search the breaks directly in the consumption\'s model. Our results indicate that imposing the breaks as Brady (2008) did is not adequate to determine the break dates in the consumption\'s model.