In 1991, the Baltic states re-gained independence from the Soviet Union after roughly 50 years of Soviet domination.  The primary benefit of this change was renewed sovereignty.  The primary challenge was how to retain that sovereignty. This thesis offers a comparative analysis of the Baltic-Russian security relationship focusing on three aspects: the extent of the Russian threat, the extent of security from the West, and whether small state theory can account for the actions of the Baltic states vis-à-vis both Russia and the West.  The thesis compares security issues in the Baltic-Russian relationship with the similar issues in other former-Soviet states.  It also compares security provided by the West with security from the Nordic states.  Finally, the thesis tests the main expectations of small state theory through Baltic-Russian and Baltic-West relations.  The conclusion argues that though Russia did (and does) pose a threat to Baltic sovereignty, it is significantly less than the threat to other former Soviet states.  Furthermore, the security provided by the West is less than expected when compared to security from the Nordic states.  Finally, while small state theory is capable of accounting for most Baltic actions vis-à-vis Russia and the West, there are some shortcomings in the theory as regards this case study.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The advent of the NATO Response Force (NRF) is the result of the call for NATO to create a warfighting capability to meet the security threats of the 21st Century. The NRF is a joint force comprised of air, land and maritime assets designed to conduct operations across the full spectrum of conflict. Missions include opposed entry scenarios, counter-terrorism, crisis response and peace enforcement, embargo operations, interdiction, and human relief and non-combatant evacuations, meeting the need called for in the U.S. National Security Strategy as well as the European Union Security Strategy. The NRF will also serve as a catalyst for transformation, encouraging European nations to downsize and retool their legacy forces in order to participate in the NRF. Political influences and operational constraints threaten to limit the NRF. The tangible effect the NRF will have on the Air Force will be its disproportionate need for Air Force assets to meet its required operational mandate. The result of the EU's inability to readily address their capability shortfalls will be the NRF's dependence upon Air Force to provide strategic airlift, air refueling, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), and the procurement and use of Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for the foreseeable future. / Major, United States Air Force

Saddam Hussein's patrimonial coercive rule reshaped major aspects of the Iraqi state and society, providing structures and motivations that have fueled resistance in the wake of regime change. By linking literature describing the effects of Ba'ath rule on the Iraqi state, society, and individual to the characteristics and motivations of the resistance, a more nuanced understanding of the complex landscape of Iraqi transition is possible. Repressive regimes produce a lasting and complex legacy in the structures of state and society that they leave behind. This legacy is often contentious and unpredictable, complicating efforts toward a democratic transition. This thesis concludes that, in the case of Iraq, patrimonial coercive rule produced a set of Sunni sub-state power structures that coveted the state and personal powers enjoyed under the old system. This sub-state landscape has proven to be difficult terrain for a successful transition, producing a network of actors that resist for varied motives. Exploration of the case of Iraqi transition reveals a demand for balanced political and military policies that address the sociopolitical roots of the resistance as well as the violent symptoms. Military initiatives alone cannot produce a solution to the problems in Iraq.

The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.

This thesis argues that U.S. and Russian influence in the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, aids in regional stability. By embracing the assistance of both the United States and Russia, the Central Asian states will be better able to deal effectively with regional flashpoints such as border disputes and water management issues. The economic and counterterrorism assistance at its current level is aiding in the combating of Islamic fundamentalism in the region. The economic impact the United States and Russia have on Central Asia is significant in terms of trade and financial assistance. The United States and Russia have ongoing business enterprises and governmental interactions with the countries of Central Asia, indicative of a future interest in investment in the region. As a region, Central Asia needs not just to maintain but also to increase its cooperation with both the United States and Russia if it is to help its struggling economies and establish regional stability.

While Special Operations Forces are commonly identified with the pursuit of foreign policy, they may also be used within the domestic security infrastructure. Given the long-practiced use of the military in developing countries in internal security roles (inclusive of Jamaica), and given the rise to prominence of transnational threats over traditional threats in Jamaica, a need has arisen for an evolution in the military to adequately meet these new unconventional threats. Such a capability may be embodied in a SOF properly selected, trained, equipped and organized to mitigate these irregular threats such as terrorism, illicit arms and narcotics trafficking, and organized crime which currently face Jamaica. This study examines the value, utility, and possible roles of such a unit in the Jamaican security landscape, and makes recommendations for the establishment and employment of such a unit in Jamaica.

The asymmetrical threats that challenge U.S. national policies are not large standing armies, but rather individuals who seek to usurp and coerce U.S. national interests. The nature of today's threats call for the U.S. military to change from finding, fixing, and destroying the enemy's forces to identifying, locating and capturing rogue individuals in order to destroy networks. To counter such threats, the USG will have to quickly and efficiently identify and find these targets globally. Unfortunately, no military doctrine, framework or process currently exists for finding and apprehending these Persons of National Interest (PONIs). Since military planners and intelligence analysts are neither educated nor trained in the methods or procedures necessary to find and capture PONIs, this thesis will propose a methodology to do so. This involves the development of an analytical process, and an organizational structure and procedure to identify and locate PONIs. Consequently, the United States government's ability to prosecute the war on terrorism today, and to find and apprehend PONIs in the future, depends on its ability to develop and institutionalize a comprehensive manhunting strategy now. / US Air Force (USAF) author.

As part of analyzing any dynamic situation or area in military operations, it is crucial to addresses how and why culture matters to the military. This thesis utilizes a systems approach for analyzing both the operational environment and culture, recommending an empirically-based pre-deployment training program that trains military members to operate at a higher level of effectiveness required for stability operations and today's "strategic sergeant" informational environment. A systems approach to analyzing the operational environment considers the current situation and the military mission in the context of geographic, societal, political, economic, military, paramilitary, security, and historical dynamics. This approach also analyzes culture through cross-cultural communications training. In order to align empirical and doctrinal analysis with operational realities, the thesis presents a pre-deployment framework and a tailored template for training at the basic, intermediate, and advanced levels. A systems approach towards culture and the operational environment, applied to pre-deployment training, and linked with long-term regional educational studies, and language proficiency, will improve the military's ability to operate successfully across the range of military missions.

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited / The promotion of democracy in the Arab world, an area to date resistant to effective political liberalization, hasbecome a central pillar in American Middle East foreign policy as well as an integral element in the Global Waron Terrorism (GWOT). How will this advocacy of democracy be received, given our theoretical and historicalknowledge? The underlying assumption of U.S. policy is that democracy will moderate some of the anti-Americansentiments from the region as well as undermine terrorist activities and support. Will overt American promotion ofdemocracy cause these states to democratize? Using aspects of social movement theory, this thesis examines Arabreactions to public American promotion of democracy. I argue that America's campaign is counterproductivebecause it has polarized the political discourse, a result which weakens potential sources of internal pressure anddistorts understandings of democracy, thus facilitating states maintenance of the status quo. It does this throughframing the message as inherently American and spurring opposing movements. Using al-Jazeera data derivedfrom the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), I recorded the connotations associated with eacharticulation of the word "democracy" to create a sample of competing frames to observe opposing movementdevelopments and frame contest trends.

Thesis explains why Chile maintains military budgets in excess of its threat levels. Historically, Chile required a well-funded and capable military due to tense regional relations. However, resolution of border conflicts, equipment acquisitions and superior economic performance reduced Chile's threats during the 1990's. Nonetheless, analysts attributed the continued high military budgets to an authoritarian hangover following General Pinochet's reign (1973-1989). Pinochet's 1998 arrest and trial diminished the power of the military, calling into question past explanations. The judiciary purged the state of junta era commanders, younger more flexible leadership came to power and the political parties agreed on constitutional reform. Yet, after sweeping constitutional reforms, budgets remained high. This thesis argues the government maintained defense budgets in order to further the "normalization" of civil-military relations. The military received high budgets and in turn recognized past human right abuses and pledged subordination. With relations stable, both the civilian elite and military agreed to reorient the military's mission towards peacekeeping. Peacekeeping reinforces civil-military relations while benefiting each party individually. The civilian elite receive international prestige furthering their foreign policy goals while the military's mission and budgets are justified. The stable equilibrium guarantees Chile will remain a regional leader in peacekeeping for the future.