Over the past two decades, a surge of interest in the area of forecasting has produced a number of statistical models available for predicting the winners of U.S. presidential elections. While historically the domain of individuals outside the scholarly community - such as political strategists, pollsters, and journalists - presidential election forecasting has become increasingly mainstream, as a number of prominent political scientists entered the forecasting arena. With the goal of making accurate predictions well in advance of the November election, these forecasters examine several important election "fundamentals" previously shown to impact national election outcomes. In general, most models employ some measure of presidential popularity as well as a variety of indicators assessing the economic conditions prior to the election. Advancing beyond the traditional, non-scientific approaches employed by prognosticators, politicos, and pundits, today's scientific models rely on decades of voting behavior research and sophisticated statistical techniques in making accurate point estimates of the incumbent's or his party's percentage of the popular two-party vote. As the latest evolution in presidential forecasting, these models represent the most accurate and reliable method of predicting elections to date. This thesis provides an assessment of forecasting models' underlying epistemological assumptions, theoretical foundations, and methodological approaches. Additionally, this study addresses forecasting's implications for related bodies of literature, particularly its impact on studies of campaign effects. / Master of Arts

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Do conventions still have relevance in the modern political world? Some call them glorified television infomercials for presidential candidates while others refer to them as admired pillars of American political history. Whichever viewpoints one identifies with, presidential conventions are interesting to study historically, and can be studied analytically. The following case studies examine the institution of the nominating convention: what they do, how they form, what they have accomplished and how they affect the voters. This study finds that conventions are still meaningful in American politics, particularly for affecting party unity, candidate image and, to a lesser degree, party platform.

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This dissertation seeks to answer two questions. First, how do national-level conditions associated with the president's party, the presidential election cycle, and presidential approval influence state legislative and gubernatorial elections? Second, how does variation in state government power mediate how state elections are influenced by those national factors? I approach the first question by testing existing theories that help to explain how party voting is affected by the presidential election cycle. Specifically, I examine the effect of presidential coattails, surge and decline theory, national referendum voting theory and vertical policy balancing theory. Surge and decline and referendum theories have been applied to state elections; however, vertical policy balancing has not. In order to assess the independent effects of each of these theories, I include variables for all theories in comprehensive statistical models. These models cover gubernatorial elections from 1948-2010 and state legislative elections from 1968-2010. Using these models, I deconstruct how each of these three theories contributes to the phenomenon of midterm loss in state elections. I find evidence for surge and decline, referendum voting, and electoral balancing in both gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Having established the effects of theories of midterm loss in state elections, I then turn to the question of whether variation in state government power mediates midterm loss. I find that formal institutional power and the size of state government do not systematically affect midterm loss. However, I show that there are important differences between states with and without the direct initiative. I show that coattail effects and referendum voting are lessened in states with the direct initiative and that presidential punishment is increased. These results, along with the findings associated with theories of midterm decline, add to our understanding of elections in the American states as well as the American electoral process in general. / Political Science

The momentous 2005 Liberian elections followed a devastating civil war. Remarkably, the winner of the presidential race was a woman, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and the second-placed was a footballer, George Weah. In addition, in stark contrast to many African elections in particular those in neighbouring Sierra Leone, voting patterns were fragmented: voters often chose President, Senators and Representatives from different parties or independents. Much can be explained by a remarkably level playing-field delivered by an interim coalition government providing no incumbent. In 2011, the Johnson-Sirleaf incumbency stood to significantly change the dynamics. This article seeks to discern whether Liberian elections maintain their unusual patterns, whether Liberia has joined the ranks of African patron-clientelist, dominant-party or two-party systems, in particular compared to that of Sierra Leone, or whether there are new twists in its democratic development. / Full text of the article was made available on the 1st March 2015 at the end of the publisher's embargo.

The 2016 U.S. presidential election results surprised many, after several groups many believed to be surefire voters for Democrats based on previous elections voted for Republican Donald Trump (Bump, 2016). Whenever a change takes place in voter patterns, one begins to hear phrases like “critical election” and “political realignment.” A critical election is an election where there is a change of at least 10 percent in partisan alignment, but it does not persist in the next election. A partisan realignment is similar to a critical election, but the change is more durable. This research explores whether the 2016 election can be classified as a critical election and whether and how key groupings of Democratic voters voted in the election compared to their votes in the 2012 election. Using data aggregated at the county level, regression analyses suggest that voters’ education, access to health care, union membership, racial/ethnic diversity, and income level all had statistically significant relationships with votes in both elections and with the change in vote between 2016 and 2012, all were substantively significant or in directions consistent with the presence of a critical election when viewed either from the national or even regional viewpoint. Evidence suggests that 2016 was a critical election. / M.A. / If 2016 proved anything about elections, it is that at times they can be difficult to predict. Predicting voter behavior based on past elections is not straightforward, in part because at times voters can make sharp changes in their party alliance over the course of four years. Sometimes those changes are lasting, but they also can fade by the next election cycle. This study examined whether the 2016 U.S. presidential election constituted such a sharp and sudden change from the 2012 election, an event social scientists term a “critical election.” Conducted at the county level, the study examined whether and how voter groupings (based on education, access to health care, union membership, income, and race/ethnicity) changed notably between 2012 and 2016. What was found was that as expected Democrats experienced a negative change in support among union, white, and impoverished voters. What was not expected was the negative change in Black votes for Democrats between 2012 and 2016. Another unexpected, though smaller, change was a drop in Democratic support by the college educated. No significant change in Democratic support was found among Hispanics or those with access to healthcare. Based on these findings 2016 can be considered to have been a critical election for Blacks.

This thesis seeks to determine if there is a relationship between a vice president of the United States governing influence and his involvement in a presidential reelection campaign. The period for this thesis will begin with Richard Nixon'­s vice presidency and end with Al Gore's. To find a connection I will create factors that will examine both governing influence and reelection campaign involvement. / Master of Arts