Os métodos convencionais para o controle de tensão concentram-se na média tensão. Em alguns casos não são suficientes para a correção da tensão na rede secundária. Este trabalho apresenta os problemas relacionados à regulação de tensão na baixa tensão, os métodos convencionais para correção da tensão e uma estratégia para o controle de tensão na rede secundária de sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. A solução final proposta é um conjunto de transformador com taps no lado de baixa tensão, hardware e software que promovem a comutação das derivações do transformador de forma automática. Para o desenvolvimento dessa estratégia será abordada a aplicação de sistemas inteligentes, o sistema fuzzy, e a estimação de modelos elétricos dos transformadores de distribuição. O objetivo desse produto é ser uma solução prática, viável técnica e economicamente para a regulação da tensão em cenários onde os métodos convencionais não o são. Os protótipos dessa solução foram montados e testados em laboratório e em campo e os resultados atenderam ao objetivo proposto. / The conventional methods for voltage control concentrated in medium voltage. In some case, they are not enough to correct the voltage on secondary grid of distribuition. This paper presents a strategy to control the voltage on the low voltage of the distribution grid. As proposed for dealing of this problem is made the presentation of an architecture for the intelligent automatic control, that is composed of distribuition transformer with tap on the low side, hardware and software. For the development of this strategy will be approached the application the intelligent systems, Fuzzy Systems, and the estimation of electrical model of distribuition transformers. The goal with this design is to provide grants to set up a system for regulating the voltage on the low side which is technically and economically feasible to be deployed where conventional solutions, with the inclusion of line regulators, are not.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-06-25Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:00:48Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 gallegopareja_la_dr_ilha.pdf: 1184349 bytes, checksum: 67e1f90a3708a0564704972e31ced51c (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Nesta tese é proposta e avaliada uma metodologia alternativa para o cálculo do fluxo de potência quando são consideradas incertezas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. Especificamente é considerada incerteza na demanda dos usuários de baixa tensão, assim como também nas fases em que os usuários estão ligados no sistema. A demanda das unidades consumidoras é modelada através das funções de distribuição de probabilidades. A metodologia proposta vale-se das curvas de carga diárias típicas que foram estimadas através das curvas de carga medidas em uma campanha de medição. O fluxo de potência proposto emprega o método de simulação de Monte Carlo para gerar múltiplos cenários de demanda do sistema de distribuição. O método de fluxo de potência determinístico empregado é o denominado algoritmo Backward-Forward Sweep. Neste trabalho também é realizado um estudo estatístico para determinar quais distribuições de probabilidade podem representar os dados das curvas de carga diárias obtidas na campanha de medições. Muitos trabalhos apresentados no âmbito acadêmico empregam a priori a função de distribuição de probabilidade normal para realizar os diversos estudos, isto pode levar a conclusões inadequadas. Também é realizada uma análise comparativa entre os resultados obtidos pelo fluxo de potência probabilístico, quando são utilizadas duas funções de distribuição de probabilidade diferentes para estimar as curvas de carga diárias (a função de distribuição de probabilidade que ficou no primeiro lugar na análise estatística e a função normal). São apresentados resultados comparativos para diferentes distribuições de probabilidade, quando é considerada incerteza somente na demanda e quando é considerada conjuntamente incertezas na demanda e na conexão das fases / In this thesis an alternative methodology to calculate the power flow considering uncertainty in the electrical distribution system is proposed and validated. Specifically, uncertainty is considered in the demand of the low voltage consumers, as well as the phases in which the users are connected to the system. The demand of the consumer units is modeled by means of probability distribution functions. The proposed methodology uses the daily load curves that were estimated by means of the load curves measured in measuring campaign. The proposed power flow uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to generate multiple demand scenarios of the distribution system. The deterministic power flow method implemented is the so called Backward-Forward Sweep algorithm. In this work it is also implemented a statistical study to determine which distribution functions can represent the data of the daily load curves obtained in the measuring campaign. Many research works found in the academic ambit use a priori the normal distribution function to perform diverse studies; this can lead to wrong conclusions. This thesis also presents a comparative analysis between the results obtained by the probabilistic power flow, when two different probability distribution functions are used to estimate the daily load curves (the probability distribution function that was first in the statistical analysis and the normal function). Comparative results are shown for different distribution functions considering uncertainty only in the demand, and considering uncertainty in the demand and the connection of the phases

Orientador: Antonio Padilha Feltrin / Banca: Percival Bueno de Araujo / Banca: Anna Diva Plasencia Lotufo / Banca: José Manuel Arroyo Sanchez / Banca: Paulo Augusto Nepomuceno Garcia / Resumo: Nesta tese é proposta e avaliada uma metodologia alternativa para o cálculo do fluxo de potência quando são consideradas incertezas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. Especificamente é considerada incerteza na demanda dos usuários de baixa tensão, assim como também nas fases em que os usuários estão ligados no sistema. A demanda das unidades consumidoras é modelada através das funções de distribuição de probabilidades. A metodologia proposta vale-se das curvas de carga diárias típicas que foram estimadas através das curvas de carga medidas em uma campanha de medição. O fluxo de potência proposto emprega o método de simulação de Monte Carlo para gerar múltiplos cenários de demanda do sistema de distribuição. O método de fluxo de potência determinístico empregado é o denominado algoritmo Backward-Forward Sweep. Neste trabalho também é realizado um estudo estatístico para determinar quais distribuições de probabilidade podem representar os dados das curvas de carga diárias obtidas na campanha de medições. Muitos trabalhos apresentados no âmbito acadêmico empregam a priori a função de distribuição de probabilidade normal para realizar os diversos estudos, isto pode levar a conclusões inadequadas. Também é realizada uma análise comparativa entre os resultados obtidos pelo fluxo de potência probabilístico, quando são utilizadas duas funções de distribuição de probabilidade diferentes para estimar as curvas de carga diárias (a função de distribuição de probabilidade que ficou no primeiro lugar na análise estatística e a função normal). São apresentados resultados comparativos para diferentes distribuições de probabilidade, quando é considerada incerteza somente na demanda e quando é considerada conjuntamente incertezas na demanda e na conexão das fases / Abstract: In this thesis an alternative methodology to calculate the power flow considering uncertainty in the electrical distribution system is proposed and validated. Specifically, uncertainty is considered in the demand of the low voltage consumers, as well as the phases in which the users are connected to the system. The demand of the consumer units is modeled by means of probability distribution functions. The proposed methodology uses the daily load curves that were estimated by means of the load curves measured in measuring campaign. The proposed power flow uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to generate multiple demand scenarios of the distribution system. The deterministic power flow method implemented is the so called Backward-Forward Sweep algorithm. In this work it is also implemented a statistical study to determine which distribution functions can represent the data of the daily load curves obtained in the measuring campaign. Many research works found in the academic ambit use a priori the normal distribution function to perform diverse studies; this can lead to wrong conclusions. This thesis also presents a comparative analysis between the results obtained by the probabilistic power flow, when two different probability distribution functions are used to estimate the daily load curves (the probability distribution function that was first in the statistical analysis and the normal function). Comparative results are shown for different distribution functions considering uncertainty only in the demand, and considering uncertainty in the demand and the connection of the phases / Doutor

Dans le domaine des réseaux de distribution d'électricité, l'ouverture du marché de l'énergie à la concurrence et l'insertion massive des génératrices décentralisées d'énergie de ces dernières années conduisent à une profonde modification du fonctionnement et de l'exploitation des réseaux. Dans ce contexte, des solutions de pilotage de la consommation et de la production doivent être apportées, afin de permettre au réseau actuel d'accueillir les nouvelles unités de production et les charges de demain, telles que les panneaux photovoltaïques, les micro-éoliennes, la cogénération, les véhicules électriques, les maisons intelligentes, etc. Ces pilotages permettent d'influencer la consommation et la production instantanées des utilisateurs du réseau. Ainsi, il devient possible d'agir sur la consommation de façon à lisser les pics ou synchroniser la demande aux périodes de forte production des énergies renouvelables. De la même façon, la production peut être pilotée pour participer aux services systèmes. Ces stratégies de pilotage, basées sur l'utilisation des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication, ont pour objectifs d'éviter une dégradation de la qualité de l'onde de tension et une reconstruction complète du réseau de distribution, qui serait économiquement très couteuse. Ces travaux, intégrés au projet GreenLys, financé par l'agence française de l'environnement et de la maitrise de l'énergie, évaluent l'impact des génératrices décentralisées d'énergie et des véhicules électriques sur le réseau de distribution, puis développent des solutions de pilotage. Deux types de pilotage sont étudiés : le pilotage de la phase de raccordement d'une installation monophasée, puis le pilotage de la puissance réactive des génératrices décentralisées d'énergie. Ces pilotages sont développés en s'appuyant sur les nouveaux composants des réseaux électriques de demain, comme les compteurs intelligents. Dans une dernière partie, les stratégies de pilotage développées sont évaluées sur des équipements réels à partir d'une plateforme de simulation hybride temps réel. / In the electricity distribution network field, because of the electricity market opening and the large-scale insertion of dispersed generators (DJ) in these last years, the network undergoes radical modification in both operation and exploitation. In this context, some new integration solutions are invented in order to be able to connect the DJ, as photo-voltaic panels, micro wind turbines, cogeneration units, etc, and the new loads, as electric vehicles and smart home, without reduce the voltage wave quality or involve a very expensive power systems reinforcement. The objectives of those solutions are to influence the consumer consumption in order to reduce the peak consumption level and shift the consumption on the high renewable production period, and control the DJ output to participate to the service system. The new information and communication technologies (NICT) are strongly used in the development of those control strategies. This PhD work is including in the French project GreenLys supported by the French environment and energy management agency. GreenLys is a 4 years project focus on the development of a real scale Smart Grid in the two French cities Lyon and Grenoble. As a first step, this work evaluating the impact of the DJ and the electric vehicle on the distribution network. From the result of this impact study, two types of decentralized control strategies are investigated. The first one is focus on the phase connection. Since the majority of consumers and DJ connected on the distribution grid are single phases, methods allowing to choose the best phase connection are study. The second one is focus on new DJ reactive power control strategies. In the last part, the strategies are evaluated on a Power Hardware In the Loop simulation and real solar inverter.

La consommation d'énergie augmente d'année en année en raison de la croissance de la population et des conditions économiques. Afin de répondre aux besoins de la population et de la société d'utiliser l'électricité, le Gouvernement Cambodgien a mis en place la politique de promotion et d'encouragement du développement de l’électrification ; tous les villages auront de l'électricité d'ici 2020 et au moins 70% des domiciles auront accès à la bonne qualité du réseau électrique d'ici 2030. Pour réussir ces objectifs, l'étude et le développement de la méthodologie du réseau de distribution basse tension (BT) sont étudiés. Cette thèse étudie la planification du réseau de distribution BT avec intégration de Photovoltaïque (PV) et de stockage d’énergie de batterie (BES). La première partie est développée la méthode de planification à long terme pour tacler le défi de l'incertitude sur la charge en zone urbaine ;le nouvel algorithme a été développé pour rechercher l'architecture optimale de minimisation du coût d’investissement (CAPEX) et d’exploitation (OPEX) qui respecte l'ensemble de contraintes topologies et électriques (courant et tension) grâce à la programmation linéaire mixte en nombres entiers à contraintes quadratiques (PLMNECQ), le plus court chemin , first-fit bin-packing, et la méthode de Monte-Carlo. La deuxième partie est traité de l'extension de la zone de couverture de l'électricité avec deux solutions possibles, sont le renforcement du réseau et l'intégration de PV-BES pour le village rural ; l'algorithme génétique (GA) et la technique itérative ont été codés pour rechercher l’emplacement et la capacité. La dernière partie du travail est concentrée sur la planification du réseau de distribution résidentielle BT pour les zones non électrifiées aux rural et urbain grâce à l'architecture optimale et l'intégration de PV-BES sur l'horizon de planification. / The energy consumption is increasing year by year due to the growth of population and the economic conditions. In order to meet the need of population and society to use electricity, the Cambodian government has established the policy to promote and encourage the development of electrification; all the villages will have electricity by the year 2020, and at least 70% of households will have access to grid quality by the year 2030. To achieve these goals, the study and development of methodology on the Low-Voltage (LV) distribution system are investigated. This thesis studies the planning of LV distribution system with integration of Photovoltaic (PV) and Battery Energy Storage (BES). The first part is developed the long-term planning method to tackle the challenge of load demand uncertainty in urban area; the novel algorithm was developed to search for the optimal architecture of minimizing the capital expenditure (CAPEX) and the operation expenditure (OPEX) which respects to the set of topology and electrical (current and voltage) thank to mixed integer quadratically constrained programming (MIQCP), shortest-path, first-fit bin-packing, and Monte-Carlo method. The second part is dealt with the extension of electricity coverage area with two possible solutions which are grid reinforcement and integration of PV-BES for rural village; the Genetic algorithm (GA) and iterative technique were coded to search for location and sizing. The last part is concentrated on the planning of residential low-voltage distribution system in both rural and urban for non-electrified area thanks to the optimal architecture and PV-BES integration over the planning horizon.

Orientador: Antonio Padilha Feltrin / Resumo: Neste trabalho o espaço geográfico é incorporado ao estudo da análise das potencialidades de migração de consumidores residenciais para uma nova opção tarifária: a tarifa branca. Os trabalhos avaliados no tema não incorporam a análise espacial de dados geográficos. Em geral apresentam as classes de consumo que mais se beneficiam com a adoção da nova opção tarifária e aspectos relacionados à estrutura tarifária de energia elétrica no Brasil. No entanto, o estudo das características do lugar onde pode ser mais provável a migração massiva de consumidores para a tarifa branca pode trazer informações relevantes para direcionar a atenção das distribuidoras de energia na aquisição de medidores eletrônicos e outros equipamentos para determinadas regiões da área urbana do município. Promove-se dessa forma um melhor dimensionamento do sistema elétrico. Os resultados deste trabalho são mapas de probabilidades úteis para indicar as subáreas onde há maior probabilidade de migração de consumidores residenciais para a tarifa branca. Esses mapas indicam que algumas regiões da cidade como a porção central e leste para os anos de 2018 e 2019 exibem maior probabilidade de unidades consumidoras aptas a migrarem para a tarifa branca. Portanto, há nessas regiões uma tendência de redução da demanda de ponta (ou de pico). Espera-se uma mudança de perfil de carga daqueles alimentadores que atendem regiões onde há maior quantidade de consumidores que irão migrar para a tarifa branca. O espaço é incorp... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: In this work the geographic space is incorporated to the study of the analysis of the potentialities of migration of residential consumers for a new tariff option: the white tariff. The works evaluated in the theme do not incorporate the spatial analysis of geographic data. In general, they present the classes of consumption that most benefit from the adoption of the new tariff option and aspects related to the tariff structure of electric energy in Brazil. However, the study of the characteristics of the place where the massive migration of consumers to the white tariff may be most likely to bring relevant information to direct the attention of energy distributors in the acquisition of electronic meters and other equipment for certain regions of the urban area of the County. In this way, a better design of the electrical system is promoted. The results of this work are useful probability maps to indicate the subareas where there is a greater probability of migration of residential consumers to the white tariff. These maps indicate that some regions of the city such as the central and eastern portions for the years 2018 and 2019 are more likely to be consumer units able to migrate to the white tariff. Therefore, there is a tendency in these regions to reduce the peak (or peak) demand. A load profile change is expected from those feeders serving regions where there are more consumers who will migrate to the white tariff. The space is incorporated in this work through technique... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Uma das principais metas das empresas concessionárias é fornecer energia a seus clientes de forma continua, confiável e com baixo custo. A qualidade do serviço de distribuição de energia é fiscalizada por órgãos reguladores do setor elétrico, sendo quantificada por métricas como o indicador de confiabilidade SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index). A melhoria da confiabilidade dos sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica é um assunto em destaque atualmente, tendo em vista a necessidade de um suprimento de energia cada vez mais confiável, para evitar as perdas econômicas que ocorrem com as interrupções. Neste contexto, este trabalho apresenta uma contribuição para a solução do problema de restabelecimento de sistemas de distribuição. A abordagem consiste no desenvolvimento de um modelo analítico de otimização, cujo objetivo principal é determinar a localização das chaves de manobras na rede que possibilite o restabelecimento efetivo da carga no período pós-falta. A viabilidade do restabelecimento é considerada através de restrições que garantem níveis adequados das tensões nas cargas, bem como a limitação da sobrecarga das linhas e as capacidades de reserva dos alimentadores adjacentes. A modelagem destas restrições é efetuada através de uma versão linear do fluxo de potência em termos das injeções nodais de correntes. As equações que descrevem o fluxo de potência são formuladas como funções das localizações das chaves de manobras no alimentador. A confiabilidade é caracterizada em termos da duração média das interrupções sustentadas, mensurada pelo indicador SAIDI. Visando à maior precisão na representação do efeito das faltas sobre a confiabilidade do alimentador, a metodologia agrega um modelo existente na literatura para alocação dos dispositivos de proteção de forma simultânea às chaves de manobras. A alocação dos dispositivos de proteção e manobras é sujeita a restrições técnicas e econômicas. Para resolver o modelo de otimização não-linear inteira mista, é usada uma técnica de otimização de uso geral, baseada no algoritmo Branch-and-Bound. Assim, metodologia permite a otimização determinística da confiabilidade do alimentador, garantindo o nível ótimo de confiabilidade e a racionalização dos investimentos por parte das concessionárias. Um estudo de caso é apresentado para avaliar a efetividade da metodologia na otimização da confiabilidade de um alimentador de distribuição real. / One of the main goals of utility companies is to provide energy to its customers continuously, reliably and cost effectively. The quality of power distribution service is supervised by regulators of the electricity sector, being quantified by metrics such as the reliability index SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index). Improving the reliability of electricity distribution systems is a key issue nowadays, in view of the need for an increasingly reliable power supply in order to avoid the economic losses due to interruptions. In this context, this work presents a contribution to solve the distribution systems restoration problem. An analytical model is developed to determine locations of the sectionalizing switches in order to restore the system loads in the post-fault period. Restoration feasibility is considered by constraints that ensure adequate voltage levels on the system loads, emergency capacity of support feeders as well as line overloads. Constraints modeling is performed by a linear power flow based on current injection approach. Power flow equations are formulated as functions of switches locations. Reliability is considered in terms of average interruption durations measured by the SAIDI index. Aiming to a greater precision in representing the reliability impact of faults, the methodology aggregates a model from the literature for simultaneous allocation of protective devices and switches. Protective devices and switches allocation is subject to technical and economical constraints. The proposed model is solved by a general-use optimization technique, based on the branch-and-bound method. The proposed methodology makes possible the deterministic optimization of distribution reliability, as well as to rationalize investments of electric utilities. A case study is presented to evaluate the effectiveness of reliability optimization of a real distribution feeder.

This diploma thesis is aimed at assessing the provision of emergency electric power supply to hospitals in South Bohemia. The chapter titled Present State briefly characterises the generation of electric power, the history of power plants in the Czech Republic, the power distribution system, it lists the basic elements of the power distribution system, including its stability and security. Among other things, it presents the term of blackout and its potential impact on the society. Furthermore, this chapter deals with the infrastructure in relation with the critical infrastructure and its history. At the end of this chapter, the functioning of health service is mentioned in relation to emergency situations, including the emergency sources used by hospitals. The research made use of the qualitative method of data collection and the data was acquired through the technique of controlled interviews and a secondary analysis of data from competent South Bohemian hospital staff who is responsible for or deal with the issue or providing emergency power supplies.

Acts of terrorism are used by various individuals, groups and transnational networks to push forward own political views, ideas and ideology on society whilst using multiple forms of violence. Their acts of violence are able to jeopardize and endanger health and safety of peoples, environment and the vitality of critical infrastructure as well. Nowadays the most spelled threat comes from so called foreign fighters whose destabilized and war-torn countries of origin are located in Northern Africa and Middle East. In combination with inefficient management of illegal migration phenomenon and unsatisfactory EU policies on that matter the problem becomes even more amplified. Schengen Area provides EU-members with non-restrictive border regime which fosters migration and trade by a great deal but on the other hand it creates an enormous security risk in terms of terrorism and its prevention. For that matter there should be much more emphasis added to the management of EU outside borders. The second most problematic issue are the matters of radicalization of individuals and minority groups in the EU. There might be a causal relationship between growing rates of frustration between peoples and social marginalization of noted societal groups which might be caused by unsatisfactory assimilation policies of respective EU member states. The goal of this given thesis was to analyze risks to Czech electrical grid which might be posed by an act of terrorism. The analysis was done by breaking down the electrical grid safety measures into respective sectors and parts. Risk for each particular category were analyzed and final risk assessment whilst using help of security professionals. A questionnaire method was used to complete this particular task. The questionnaire dataset was later used to identification of most vulnerable weak-points in the electricity transmission system of the Czech Republic in respect to acts of terrorism. This diploma thesis might be used as a blueprint for improvements in the security management of the Czech electricity transmission system and for educatory purposes at the University of South Bohemia, at the Faculty of Health and Social Sciences.

En 2010, ERDF (Electricité Réseau Distribution France) a entamé la mise en place du projet « Linky » dont l'objectif est d'installer 35 millions de compteurs intelligents en France. Ces compteurs permettront de collecter les données de consommation en « temps réel », avec lesquelles des modèles de charge plus précis pourront être envisagés. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse définit deux objectifs: la définition de modèles prédictifs de charge pour la conduite et la conception de modèles d'estimation de charge pour la planification. En ce qui concerne la conduite, nous avons développés deux modèles. Le premier exploite le formalisme mathématique des séries chronologiques ; le second est basé sur un réseau de neurones. Les deux modèles cherchent à prévoir la charge des jours « J+1 » et « J+2 » à partir des informations collectées jusqu'au jour « J ». Le modèle « série chronologique » repose sur les propriétés temporelles des courbes de charge. Ainsi on découpe la courbe de charge en trois parties : la tendance, la périodicité et le résidu. Les premiers deux sont déterministes et indépendamment développés en deux modèles : le modèle de tendance et le modèle de cyclicité. La somme de la prévision de ces deux modèles est la prévision finale. Le résidu quant à lui capture les phénomènes aléatoires que présente la courbe de charge. Le modèle de prédiction ainsi développé s'aide de nombreux outils statistiques (e.g., test de stationnarité, test ANOVA, analyse spectrale, entres autres) pour garantir son bon fonctionnement. Enfin, modèle « série chronologique » prend en compte plusieurs facteurs qui expliquent la variation dans la courbe de consommation tels que la température, les cyclicités, le temps, et le type du jour, etc. En ce qui concerne le modèle à base de réseaux de neurones, nous nous focalisons sur les stratégies de sélection de la structure pour un modèle optimal. Les choix des entrées et du nombre de neurones cachés sont effectués à travers les méthodes dites de «régression orthogonale » et de « leave-one-out-virtuel ». Les résultats montrent que la procédure proposée permet de choisir une structure de réseau de neurones qui garantisse une bonne précision de prédiction. En ce qui concerne la planification, un modèle non paramétrique est proposé et comparé avec le modèle actuel « BAGHEERA » d'EDF. Avec l'ouverture du marché d'électricité, la relation entre les fournisseurs, les clients et les distributeurs devient flexible. Les informations qualitatives d'un client particulier telles que sa puissance souscrite, son code d'activité, ses tarifs etc. sont de moins en moins disponibles. L'évolution du modèle BAGHEERA qui dépend ces informations pour classer les clients dans différentes catégories est devenue indispensable. Le modèle non paramétrique est un modèle individuel centré sur le relevé des compteurs. Trois variables de régression non paramétriques : Nadaraya Watson, Local Linear et Local Linear adapted ont été analysées et comparées. Les scénarios de validation montrent que le modèle non paramétrique est plus précis que le modèle « BAGHEERA ». Ces nouveaux modèles ont été conçus et validés sur de vraies données collectées sur le territoire français. / From 2010, ERDF (French DSO) started the “Linky” project. The project aims at installing 35 millions smart meters in France. These smart meters will collect individual client's consumption data in real time and transfer these data to the data center automatically in a certain frequency. These detailed consumption information provided by the smart metering system enables the designs of more accurate load models. On this purpose, two distinctive objectives are defined in this dissertation: the forecasting load models for the operation need and the estimation load models for the planning need. For the operation need, two models are developed, respectively relying on the “time series” and the “neural network” principals. They are both for the objective of predicting the loads in “D+1” and “D+2” days based on the historical information till “D” day. The “time series” model divides the load curve into three components: the trend, the cyclic, and the residual. The first two parts are deterministic, from which two models named the trend model and the cyclic model are made. The sum of the prevision of these two models is the final prediction result. For a better precision, numerous statistical tools are also integrated such that the stationary test, the smoothed periodogram, the ANOVA test and the gliding window estimation, etc. The time series model can extract information from the influence factors such as the time, the temperature, the periodicities and the day type, etc. Being the most popular non linear model and the universal approximator, the neural network load forecasting model is also studied in this dissertation. We focus on the strategy of the structure selection. The work is in collaboration with Prof. Dreyfus (SIGMA lab), a well known expert in the machine learning field. Input selection and model selection are performed by the “orthogonal forward regression” and the “virtual-leave-one-out” algorithms. Results show that the proposed procedure is efficient and guarantees the chosen model a good accuracy on the load forecasting. For the planning, a nonparametric model is designed and compared with the actual model “BAGHEERA” of the French electricity company EDF. With the opening of the electricity market, the relationship among the regulators, suppliers and clients is changing. The qualitative information about a particular client such as his subscribed power, his activity code and his electricity tariffs becomes less and less available. The evolution from the BAGHEERA model to a data-driven model is unavoidable, since the BAGHEERA model depends on these information to attribute every client in the French territory into a pre-defined category. The proposed nonparametric model is individualized and can deal with both temperature sensitive (possessing an electrical heater) and temperature insensitive clients. Three nonparametric regressors are proposed: the Nadaraya Watson, the local linear, and the local linear adapted. The validation studies show that the nonparametric model has a better estimation precision than the BAGHEERA model. These novel models are designed and validated by the real measurements collected in the French distribution network.