published_or_final_version / Urban Planning / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

Despite the UK’s abundance of renewable energy sources and the imperative for renewable energy to make a significant contribution to addressing the problems of climate change and fossil-fuel dependency, renewable energy capacity in the UK has developed slowly compared with some other EU states. The UK has introduced a succession of policies to promote renewable energy, but so far these have failed to meet national and EU targets. This signals the need for detailed examination of the reasons for these ‘failures’ and, in particular, the extent, nature and constraints on ‘policy learning’ within UK renewable energy policy. Policy learning has emerged in recent years as an innovative way of exploring the roles of knowledge acquisition and use in policy change. This study examines the contribution of policy learning to the development of UK renewable energy policy. It is argued that interpreting UK renewable energy policy development through the lens of policy learning yields fresh perspectives on why policies develop in certain directions and not others. In so doing, it critically examines problems caused by failings in policy learning and identifies options for the further promotion of renewable energies in the UK. The study distinguishes four different forms of policy learning: technical, conceptual, social and political. Little research has been conducted on the characteristics of these different learning types, the conditions under which they occur, the psychological, institutional and cultural factors that stimulate or constrain learning, and how they interact to shape policy change. The study utilises a qualitative methodology to analyse and explain changes in UK renewable energy policy over the past 20 years. The main methods employed are content analysis of policy documents (including legislative acts and instruments, consultations and select committee reports); and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders from government, industry, NGOs, academia and the media. It is argued in the thesis that UK energy policy has tended to become ‘locked’ into low-level forms of technical learning because current government learning mechanisms do not challenge the parameters of existing policy and, thus, fail to stimulate broader processes of conceptual and social learning that might encourage more radical policy change. These forms of policy learning are particularly constrained by hierarchical institutional structures that hinder communication and learning between policy areas. Furthermore, the current style of policy making for renewable energy in the UK privileges the interests of incumbent energy companies, giving them the ability to filter or block new ideas that do not align with their commercial interests. Political learning was shown to operate alongside other types of policy learning and to take multiple forms but focused predominantly on political risk management rather than political innovation: thus, it tended to narrow rather than extend the parameters of debate. These findings were used to develop a model of policy learning in UK renewable energy policy. This was used to conceptualise relationships between different learning types, highlight specific barriers to policy learning, and illustrate dynamics of policy learning and change that might be extended to other policy areas and countries. Finally, it is argued that many of the barriers identified might be overcome by fostering more evidence-based policy making and learning mechanisms that engage with a broader range of stakeholders to stimulate more pluralistic government processes.

This thesis addresses the substantive problem: how does variation in energy wealth impact upon the foreign policies of major energy-producing states? To answer this question, the thesis draws upon the ‘resource curse’ literature, as well as existing works of foreign policy analysis, to formulate a new theory. Based on a framework of neoclassical realism, this energy impact theory of foreign policy proposes that energy wealth, conceived as a national capability, has a significant and reliable effect on major energy-producing states’ foreign policies. Specifically, it is hypothesised that increases in energy capabilities amplify the scale and scope of these states’ international activity; promote boldness, ambition, and aggression; and encourage the adoption of unilateralist approaches to foreign policy. Decreases in energy capabilities are anticipated to have the opposite effects. Having delineated the core features of this middle-range theory, the model is tested using an initial, most-likely case study of the Soviet Union and Russian Federation, 1970 to 2010. The results of this empirical study are enormously encouraging since, following meticulous qualitative analysis of events data, the theory is concluded to have significant explanatory value in this context, as well as substantial promise as a more general model. In this way, the thesis endeavours to make a distinctive contribution, not only to research into the factors shaping Moscow’s international conduct, but also to the broader theoretical literatures on the ‘resource curse’ and foreign policy analysis. It is anticipated that this thesis marks only the beginning of a much more extensive programme of research.

<p>U ovom radu je prezentirana metodologija razvoja modela optimizacije<br />podsticaja proizvodnje električne i toplotne energije u<br />kogenerativnim postrojenjima koja koriste drvnu biomasu kao gorivo.<br />Model optimizacije je razvijen koristeći matematičku metodu<br />linearnog programiranja u kome je maksimizirana ukupna ekonomska<br />korist za raspoloživi iznos sredstava za podsticaje. Model<br />optimizacije je primijenjen na kogenerativna postrojenja u drvo-<br />prerađivačkoj industriji u Bosni i Hercegovini i pokazano da se<br />primjenom modela optimizacije, kroz iterativni proces, mogu odrediti<br />optimalne vrijednosti podsticaja za proizvedenu električnu i<br />toplotnu energiju koji rezultuju u maksimalnoj ukupnoj ekonomskoj<br />koristi za društvo u cjelini.</p> / <p>This thesis presents a methodology for the development of a mathematical<br />model for optimization of the level of subsidies for generating electricity and<br />heat in co-generating plants that use woody biomass as fuel. The optimization<br />model is developed using the mathematical method of linear programming to<br />maximize the total economic benefits for a defined amount of available funds<br />for subsidies. This model is applied to co-generating plants in the woodprocessing<br />industry in Bosnia and Herzegovina and shows that the application<br />of this optimization model can, through an iterative process, determine the<br />optimal levels of incentives for electricity and heat that result in the maximum<br />economic benefits for the society as a whole.</p>

Current proxy indicators of innovation although insightful, tend to provide more relevance in both larger scale markets, (such as in the pharmaceuticals or electronics industry) and for codifiable innovative activity, (such as patents and bibliometrics). These measures could be capitalised on further if a more robust measure of functionality performance that included informal innovative activity could be gained to help assess the overall performance of the system under inspection. This work uses the emerging UK wave energy sector as a primary case study to explore early stage innovation systems through the novel application of network analysis as well as existing innovation systems theory. It was hoped that a clearer understanding of which metrics were related to which system functionality and how representative they were would help to create more robust and transferable measures of emergent system functionality. The question as to whether this increased confidence and insight into system operation could allow for benchmarking comparisons between spatially or socially different emerging innovative networks, such as different countries or stakeholder types was then addressed, as well as wether this could provide a higher level of efficacy to applied policy support? A further goal of this work was to assess the current wave energy sector through these methodologies and provide insightful feedback into activity, potential opportunities and threats present within the system. The main methodological findings show that the novel application of Social Network Analysis provided a strongly correlated and insightful metric of innovative activity however (as with established metrics), there were clearl limitations on applicability and that a ‘one size fits all’ application of methods is not available for any innovation assessment tools. Additionally, many existing metrics used within analysis are often un-clearly defined or presented leaving largely presumptuous levels of interpretation within the final analysis. Sectoral findings showed a range of narratives regarding the sector. Clear prominence of Scotland and higher levels of all system functionality within the country make it a strong performer within the system. Likewise, a lack of coherent and ‘first-past-the-post’ funding policy has produced a ‘gating’ of technology support that in turn has disillusioned many early device developers while pulling out a fortunate few. This ‘Mathew Effect’ within the system may (among other things) leave the sector open to system shocks from outside competition and reduce the level of market entrance due to a perception of unfair or secretive support provision.

As part of an effort to be a world leader in international efforts in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, the UK Government has set itself ambitious targets to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80% relative to 1990 levels by 2050. To meet this target, there is a strong emphasis in reducing carbon emissions from the domestic sector through the reduction of energy consumption in UK households by improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock, and the behaviours of the occupants. The Department of Energy and Climate Change have indicated that Local Authorities in England are potentially to work in partnership with businesses and community organizations to facilitate delivery; and as a promoter of domestic energy efficiency policies. Consultation with 11 Local Authorities across England confirmed that they are lacking a reliable mechanism that can detect areas within their administrative boundaries that are most in need of intervention to improve the energy efficiency of the housing stock. For the year 2008 the regression models demonstrate that geographical variations in the size of the house, median household income, and air temperature account for 64% of the variation in English domestic gas consumption, and that variations in the size of the house, median household income, and proportion of households connected to the national gas grid account for 73% of the variation in domestic electricity consumption. The predicted values from these regression models serve as benchmarks of domestic gas and electricity consumption in England having accounted for household income, house size, house type, tenure, and climatic differences and could be used to identify areas within Local Authorities with higher than expected energy consumption for energy efficiency interventions. These results contribute to the wider academic debate over how best to achieve the overall aims of household CO2 reductions by moving beyond a purely technical or behavioural-based approach to reducing domestic energy consumption.

This thesis explores the international political dynamics of developing low carbon technology. Specifically, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology as a climate mitigation strategy in a developing country context is examined. CCS is a technological solution that allows for the continued use of fossil fuels without the large amounts of associated CO2 emissions. This entails capturing the CO2 emitted from large point sources, such as a coal-fired power station, and transporting the captured emissions to be injected and stored permanently into geological media. Consequently, CCS is a bridging technology that could provide more time for transitioning to a low-carbon economy. A case study of India is used, which is an emerging industrialising economy, and is also the third-largest coal producer in the world. India faces a dilemma: poverty alleviation and infrastructure development to support its billion plus population requires vast amounts of energy, which is predominantly based on fossil fuels. Therefore, it was envisioned that CCS would be a sustainable option, which could enable industrialisation at the rate required, whilst preventing the exacerbation of the negative effects of climate change. However, during the period of study (2007-2010), CCS was not embraced by India, despite there being a growing impetus to develop, demonstrate and transfer the technology. India was reluctant to consider CCS as part of a mitigation strategy, and this thesis focuses on the reasons why. An interdisciplinary approach is used, coupling perspectives from science, technology and innovation studies (STS) with concepts from International Relations (IR) scholarship. This sociotechnical conceptual framework is applied to gain a more holistic picture of the failed attempt to transfer CCS technology to India. Key technical challenges and blockages are identified within India’s existing energy system, which have restricted CCS technology implementation. In addition, the political challenges associated with the rejection of CCS by the Indian Government are explored. Empirical evidence is on the basis of elite interviews, an expert stakeholder survey and relevant documents. Another case study on the Cambay basin is used to further demonstrate the influence of political factors on CCS implementation, even in an area considered to have suitable technical conditions. The outcomes of this study have implications for policy addressing global challenges, especially by means of international cooperation and technological change.

M.Com. / The discovery of natural gas and condensate during the past 10 years off the South African south coast coincided with increased calls for sanctions and isolation of South Africa by the international community. The question was raised if the natural gas could not be used to diminish our dependancy on imported oil. After several studies to determine the feasibility of converting natural gas to fuel it was decided to proceed with the conversion project referred to as the Mossgas project. The purpose would be to produce offshore natural gas with the aid of fixed offshore platforms, linked to an onshore facility via pipelines, where it would be transformed into fuel using a process similar to the Sasol Synthol process. The purpose of the thesis is to determine the influence of factors assumed to have the greatest affect on the project, i.e. tax, loans, cost overruns and the production of by-products. To quantify these subjective criteria of the influence of the above factors, financial spreadsheets were designed utilizing the Lotus 123 software programme to evaluate the impact of the variables. A series approach to sensitivity analysis was followed, calculating most likely, highest and lowest outcomes for the different variables. A base case utilizing modified Mossgas cost figures was designed and subsequent spreadsheets to evaluate specific scenarios were developed. A base case was developed evaluating the land and offshore facilities as two separate projects, linked by a transfer price for gas. The price is determined to benefit both the land and offshore projects and designed to lead to equal profitability. Equity capital is assumed to be the only source of financing for the base case. Internal rate of return (IRR) was used as a decision-making criterion throughout the analysis...

A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty of Humanities In partial fulfillment of the requirements for obtaining the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations / Africa’s wave of democratisation since 1990 has transformed political institutions in the region. But while democracy is a desirable end in itself, considerable doubts remain about whether it is contributing to better development outcomes. This study investigates the impact of political constraints on electricity generating capacity, using cross-national data for 46 sub-Saharan African countries. It tests the hypothesis that institutions that restrain arbitrary executive authority result in higher levels of electricity generating capacity. The hypothesis is informed by the theory of credible commitment. This theory holds that political constraints provide a stable political and policy environment that reduces temptations for governments to renege on their commitments. Credible commitments are especially important in attracting investment with a long gestation period, such as investment in electricity generating capacity. In my method I use a combination of statistical analysis and nested case studies to probe the congruence of these outcomes with my hypothesis. For the nested analysis I use the statistically chosen countries of Rwanda and Kenya, which in themselves conform to the pattern of the hypothesis. My central finding is that the presence of democratic political institutions has led to improved electricity generating outcomes in African states. In this way the study contributes to the understanding of the developmental consequences of democratisation in Africa.

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