Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T11:52:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-07-30Bitstream added on 2015-03-03T12:06:38Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000811185_20160630.pdf: 241917 bytes, checksum: 980a2b2d7ef326c13784a7051c0be59f (MD5) Bitstreams deleted on 2016-07-01T13:02:15Z: 000811185_20160630.pdf,. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-07-01T13:03:14Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000811185.pdf: 1318806 bytes, checksum: b28e0cb8cfb5c183cc9d4bb267805af1 (MD5) / This thesis aimed to identify patterns of Aedes (Stegomya) L. aegypti, vector of dengue disease in cities of São Paulo state between 2003-2011. The studied cities were Araçatuba, Bauru, Campinas, Marília, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Santos, Sorocaba, Ribeirão Preto and Presidente Prudente in Brazil. The statistical technique of Cluster Analysis was used to classify these cities, where the variables related to dengue vector were chosen. The annual variables adopted were mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, rainy days, average rainfall, population density, index of house infestation (IIP), resistance to temephos, rate of indigenous and imported dengue cases, as well as the altitude as fixed variable. The results showed that the patterns of dengue are dynamic throughout the studied period for the cities in focus. Cities were grouped into three more permanent groups, although there are changes in formation of these groups over studied time. The most consistent groups indicated a relation to the climatic classification of Köppen-Geiger, showing that the climate affects the dengue vector and its epidemiology. The city of Santos was classified as the only group in each year to present a distinct profile for bioecology and resistance to temephos in Ae. aegypti and dengue consecutively

Orientador: Fernando Frei / Banca: Pitágoras da Conceição Bispo / Banca: Luciamare Perinetti Alves Martins / Resumo:Essa dissertação teve por objetivo principal a identificação de padrões do Aedes (Stegomya) aegypti L., vetor da doença dengue, em municípios do estado de São Paulo entre os anos de 2003 a 2011. Os municípios estudados foram Araçatuba, Bauru, Campinas, Marília, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Santos, Sorocaba, Ribeirão Preto e Presidente Prudente. Foi utilizada a técnica estatística de Análise de Agrupamentos para classificação dos municípios, onde foram escolhidas as variáveis relacionadas ao vetor da dengue. As variáveis anuais adotadas foram temperatura média máxima, temperatura média mínima, dias de chuva, precipitação média, densidade populacional, índice de infestação predial (IIP), resistência ao temephos, taxa de casos de dengue autóctones e importados, além da altitude como variável fixa. As variáveis estudadas não classificaram de forma consistente os municípios em todo o período analisado. Os municípios foram agrupados em três grupos mais permanentes, apesar de existir alteração na formação desses agrupamentos ao longo do tempo avaliado. Os grupos mais frequentes na análise temporal indicaram relação com a classificação climática de Köppen-Geiger, exibindo a relação intensa do clima com o vetor e a epidemiologia da dengue. O município de Santos foi classificado como grupo único em todos os anos por apresentar um perfil distinto para a bioecologia e resistência ao temephos do Ae. aegypti, e consecutivamente da dengue / Abstract: This thesis aimed to identify patterns of Aedes (Stegomya) L. aegypti, vector of dengue disease in cities of São Paulo state between 2003-2011. The studied cities were Araçatuba, Bauru, Campinas, Marília, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Santos, Sorocaba, Ribeirão Preto and Presidente Prudente in Brazil. The statistical technique of Cluster Analysis was used to classify these cities, where the variables related to dengue vector were chosen. The annual variables adopted were mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, rainy days, average rainfall, population density, index of house infestation (IIP), resistance to temephos, rate of indigenous and imported dengue cases, as well as the altitude as fixed variable. The results showed that the patterns of dengue are dynamic throughout the studied period for the cities in focus. Cities were grouped into three more permanent groups, although there are changes in formation of these groups over studied time. The most consistent groups indicated a relation to the climatic classification of Köppen-Geiger, showing that the climate affects the dengue vector and its epidemiology. The city of Santos was classified as the only group in each year to present a distinct profile for bioecology and resistance to temephos in Ae. aegypti and dengue consecutively / Mestre

The foreseen massive deployment of the internet of things (IoT) is expected to suffer from high security risks. This mainly results from the difficulty to monitor and cure the IoT devices in such large-scale deployment. In this thesis, we propose a spatial random deployment of special nodes (firewalls) which can detect and cure infected nodes within certain radius. An important concern is to add sufficient number of firewalls to make an epidemics finite and, hence, prevent malware outbreak over the whole network. The problem will be analyzed using percolation theory. Namely, we derive an upperbound for the critical intensity of spatial firewalls which guarantees prevention of large-scale network epidemics, regardless of the intensity of regular nodes. Using tools from percolation theory, we analyze the proposed solution and show the conditions required to ensure its efficiency.

Background: The city of Manaus, Brazil, has seen two collapses of the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We report anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibody seroconversion rates and associated risk factors in Manaus residents before the second wave of the epidemic in Brazil. Methods: A convenience sample of adult (aged ≥18 years) residents of Manaus was recruited through online and university website advertising into the DETECTCoV-19 study cohort. The current analysis of seroconversion included a subgroup of DETECTCoV-19 participants who had at least two serum sample collections separated by at least 4 weeks between Aug 19 and Oct 2, 2020 (visit 1), and Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020 (visit 2). Those who reported (or had no data on) having a COVID-19 diagnosis before visit 1, and who were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at visit 1 were excluded. Using an in-house ELISA, the reactivity index (RI; calculated as the optical density ratio of the sample to the negative control) for serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was measured at both visits. We calculated the incidence of seroconversion (defined as RI values ≤1·5 at visit 1 and ≥1·5 at visit 2, and a ratio >2 between the visit 2 and visit 1 RI values) during the study period, as well as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) through cluster-corrected and adjusted Poisson regression models to analyse associations between seroconversion and variables related to sociodemographic characteristics, health access, comorbidities, COVID-19 exposure, protective behaviours, and symptoms. Findings: 2496 DETECTCoV-19 cohort participants returned for a follow-up visit between Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020, of whom 204 reported having COVID-19 before the first visit and 24 had no data regarding previous disease status. 559 participants were seropositive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at baseline. Of the remaining 1709 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 71 did not meet the criteria for seroconversion and were excluded from the analyses. Among the remaining 1638 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 214 showed seroconversion at visit 2. The seroconversion incidence was 13·06% (95% CI 11·52–14·79) overall and 6·78% (5·61–8·10) for symptomatic seroconversion, over a median follow-up period of 57 days (IQR 54–61). 48·1% of seroconversion events were estimated to be asymptomatic. The sample had higher proportions of affluent and higher-educated people than those reported for the Manaus city population. In the fully adjusted and corrected model, risk factors for seroconversion before visit 2 were having a COVID-19 case in the household (IRR 1·49 [95% CI 1·21–1·83]), not wearing a mask during contact with a person with COVID-19 (1·25 [1·09–1·45]), relaxation of physical distancing (1·31 [1·05–1·64]), and having flu-like symptoms (1·79 [1·23–2·59]) or a COVID-19 diagnosis (3·57 [2·27–5·63]) between the first and second visits, whereas working remotely was associated with lower incidence (0·74 [0·56–0·97]). Interpretation: An intense infection transmission period preceded the second wave of COVID-19 in Manaus. Several modifiable behaviours increased the risk of seroconversion, including non-compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions measures such as not wearing a mask during contact, relaxation of protective measures, and non-remote working. Increased testing in high-transmission areas is needed to provide timely information about ongoing transmission and aid appropriate implementation of transmission mitigation measures. Funding: Ministry of Education, Brazil; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas; Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO. / World Health Organization / Revisión por pares

This dissertation contributes to a methodology and a better understanding that can be used to study the effects of strategies during a pandemic, especially in multi-community networks. The dissertation is structured as the following: In the first chapter, we introduce the concept of networks and its properties, and node and link percolation, which is an important process embedded in networks. Then we discuss different epidemic models, among which the SIR model is representative of many infectious diseases, and can also be mapped into a link percolation problem. We bring up two quantities that are most important in evaluating the effectiveness of epidemic strategies, one is the total fraction of individuals ever been infected by the final steady state of the SIR model, the other is the peak fraction of infected throughout the process, the second of which has seldom been studied before. There have been many researches on epidemic models within isolated networks, but recently people start getting more interested in network of networks, due to its better representation of real world systems. So we study those two quantities and their dependence on the fraction of bridge nodes in multi-community networks, in the second and third chapters: In the second chapter, we look at the final steady state of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model, which can be mapped as one cluster in a link percolation problem. Using the scaling relations for the cluster size distributions around the critical point within isolated networks, we find multiple regimes in a network with two communities so that the total fraction of individuals ever been infected asymptotically follows different power laws with the fraction of bridge nodes within each regime. We also find crossovers between neighbor regimes so that the power law exponent changes from one regime to the other. It is interesting to note that the power-law relations get steeper in regimes with smaller transmissibilities, so those epidemic strategies that reduce connections between communities are more effective in those regimes. In the third chapter, we look at the peak fraction of infected of the SIR model, which also shows power law relations with the fraction of bridge nodes in different regimes, as well as crossovers between regimes. We also find that the power-law relation for the peak fraction of infected with the fraction of bridge nodes is steeper than the one for the total fraction of individuals ever been infected in the same regime, which indicates that the peak fraction of infected is more sensitive to strategies that reduce connections between communities. This explains why strategies to flatten the curve are usually taken when there are limited medical resources.

This research about women’s caregiving experiences in Jamaica uses the conceptual frameworks of intersectionality and anti-racist feminist perspectives to interpret and analyze the experiences of informal and formally trained nurses and folk healers in post-slavery Jamaica. This study explores how race, colour, class, gender, citizenship, and national identity intersected to define and shape women’s experiences as caregivers in Jamaica between the 1850s and the 1910s. By integrating scholarly interpretations about a plural health system with case studies about the management of diseases and developments in nursing, this research presents an inclusive analysis of female caregivers (British, Euro-American, and Afro-Jamaican nurses and folk healers) in post-slavery Jamaica. The late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries was the period of the “new” imperialism characterized by the growth of caregiving and medical philanthropy in aiding the expansion of imperial pursuits and the civilizing mission of empires (British and US). Caregiving reveals how gender, race, class, and national identity intersected to shape the management of diseases in post-slavery Jamaica. On the one hand, formal caregiving was a tool for empire-building through colonial medical policies that aimed to heal the bodies and “civilize” the mentality of colonized peoples. On the other hand, informal caregiving empowered oppressed people to reshape cultural customs by adapting healing and religious practices to challenge British imperialism and claim citizenship. / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This study examines the management of epidemics and disease in post-slavery Jamaica by highlighting the contributions of female caregivers, such as informally and formally trained nurses and Afro-Jamaican folk healers. It argues that caregiving provided by the government medical system and Afro-Jamaican folk healing developed from the mid-nineteenth to the early twentieth century in response to the challenges of adjusting to emancipation, frequent epidemics and encounters with disease. However, the government’s efforts to contain epidemics and disease were inadequate because of a shortage of medical practitioners, insufficient medical infrastructure, and white medical elites’ racial and class prejudices toward the labouring class. Nursing developed in parallel with establishing public hospitals and medical institutions in the urban centre as sites to control the labouring-class to mitigate epidemics and disease in post-slavery Jamaica. British, Euro-American, and Afro-Jamaican female caregivers deployed religious and medical services (caregiving) that reinforced and challenged racial, class and gender hierarchies during the post-slavery period in Jamaica.

MENVSC (Geography) / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / Semi-arid regions of Africa are prone to epidemics of malaria. Epidemic malaria occurs along the geographical margins of endemic regions, when the equilibrium between the human, parasite and mosquito vector populations are occasionally disturbed by changes in one or more meteorological factors and a sharp but temporary increase in disease incidence results. Monthly rainfall and temperature data from the South African Weather Service and malaria incidence data from Department of Health were used to determine the influence of meteorological variables on malaria transmission in Limpopo from 1998-2014. Meteorological influences on malaria transmission were analyzed using time series analysis techniques. Climate suitability for malaria transmission was determined using MARA distribution model. There are three distinct modes of rainfall variability over Limpopo which can be associated with land falling tropical cyclones, cloud bands and intensity of the Botswana upper high. ENSO and ENSO-Modoki explains about 58% of this variability. Malaria epidemics were identified using a standardized index, where cases greater than two standard deviations from the mean are identified as epidemics. Significant positive correlations between meteorological variables and monthly malaria incidence is observed at least one month lag time, except for rainfall which shows positive correlation at three months lag time. Malaria transmission appears to be strongly influenced by minimum temperature and relative humidity (R = 0.52, p<0.001). A SARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 0, 0)12 model fitted with only malaria cases has prediction performance of about 53%. Warm SSTs of the SWIO and Benguela Niño region west of Angola are the dominant predictors of malaria epidemics in Limpopo in the absence of La Niña. Warm SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic and Benguela Niño region results in the relaxation of the St. Helena high thus shifting the rainy weather to south-east Africa. La Niña have been linked with increased malaria cases in south-east Africa. During El Niño when rain bearing systems have migrated east of Madagascar ridging of the St. Helena high may produce conducive conditions for malaria transmission. Anomalously warmer and moist winters preceding the malaria transmission season are likely to allow for high mosquito survival and the availability of the breeding sites thus high population in the beginning of the transmission season hence resulting in increased epidemics. / NRF

Master of Science / Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Todd W. Easton / With the present threat of bioterrorist attacks and new natural disease strains developing, efficient and effective countermeasures must be in place in case of an epidemic outbreak. The best strategy is to stop the attack or natural phenomenon before it happens, but governments and individual citizens must have measures in place to limit the spread of a biological threat or infectious disease if it is ever introduced into society. The objective of this research is to know, before an outbreak, the best quarantine areas. Quarantines force similar individuals together and can be mathematically modeled as clustering people into distinct groups. In order to effectively determine the clustering solution to use as a quarantine plan, this research developed a simulation core that is highly adaptable to different disease types and different contact networks. The input needed for the simulation core is the characteristics of the disease as well as the contact network of the area to be modeled. Clustering is a mathematical problem that groups entities based on their similarities while keeping dissimilar entities in separate groups. Clustering has been widely used by civilian and military researchers to provide quality solutions to numerous problems. This research builds a mathematical model to find clusters from a community’s contact network. These clusters are then the preplanned quarantine areas. To find quality clusters a Clustering Heuristic using Integer Programming (CHIP) is developed. CHIP is a large neighborhood, hill-climbing heuristic and some computational results verify that it quickly generates good clustering solutions. CHIP is an effective heuristic to group people into clusters to be used as quarantine areas prior to the development of a disease or biological attack. Through a small computational study, CHIP is shown to produce clustering solutions that are about 25% better than the commonly used K-means clustering heuristic. CHIP provides an effective tool to combat the spread of an infectious disease or a biological terroristic attack and serves as a potential deterrent to possible terrorist attacks due to the fact that it would limit their destructive power. CHIP leads to the next level of preparation that could save countless lives in the event of an epidemic.

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Ypač pavojingos užkrečiamosios ligos ištisus amžius sėjo mirtį pasaulyje. Nuo XIX a. susirgimai šiomis ligomis Europoje registruoti rečiau nei Viduramžiais, o pastaraisiais amžiais tos ligos tapo retenybe. Tačiau Pasaulio sveikatos organizacija įspėja – turime išlikti budrūs, nes sergamumas maru, cholera ir kitomis ypač pavojingomis užkrečiamosiomis ligomis vis dar stebimas kai kuriose Azijos valstybėse (Indija, Kinija), Arabijoje, Afrikoje. Pagal Pavojingų ir ypač pavojingų užkrečiamųjų ligų, dėl kurių ligoniai, asmenys, įtariami, kad serga pavojingomis ar ypač pavojingomis užkrečiamosiomis ligomis, asmenys, turėję sąlytį, ar šių ligų sukėlėjų nešiotojai turi būti hospitalizuojami, izoliuojami, tiriami ir (ar) gydomi privalomai, sąrašą (toliau Pavojingų ir ypač pavojingų užkrečiamųjų ligų sąrašas), ypač pavojingoms užkrečiamosioms ligoms priskiriamos: &#61558; maras, &#61558; cholera ar sukėlėjo nešiojimas, &#61558; beždžionių raupai, &#61558; geltonoji karštligė, &#61558; virusinės hemoraginės karštligės. Šiame magistro darbe dižiausias dėmesys skiriamas maro istorinei raidai Lietuvoje XIV – XVIII a. a., kadangi ši liga darė didžiausią įtaką tautos demografiniam kitimui mūsų nagrinėtu laikotarpiu. Šis darbas užpildys medicinos ir visuomenės sveikatos istorijos spragą, kurioje labai trūksta duomenų apie minėtų amžių ypač pavojingas užkrečiamąsias ligas. Darbe taip pat pateikta informacija apie sifilio protrūkius Lietuvoje. Sifilis, pagal aukščiau minėtą Pavojingų ir ypač... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The especially dangerous contagious diseases were very important in every century. From the 19th century comparing to the Medieval centuries there were less cases of especially dangerous contagious diseases in Europe and at the last time that cases became very rare. But the World Health Organization warns – people have to stay careful because various dangerious contagious diseases like plague or cholera are still common in such Asia countries like India, China, in Africa continent and in Arabic countries too. According to the Health Care minister’s order of Dangerous and especially dangerous contagious diseases, the especially dangerous contagious diseases are classified like that: &#61558; Plague, &#61558; Cholera, &#61558; Monkey’s variola, &#61558; The yellow fever, &#61558; The viral haemorrhage fever. On this Master’s Final Thesis the most information is concentrated on plague history in Lithuania in 14th – 18th centuries, because plague was the most important reason of the country’s population demographic changes. These Thesis will fill the section of medicine’s history part of the contagious diseases in 14th – 18th centuries. The syphilis is mentioned on that Thesis too, because this disease is classified as dangerous contagious disease on the list of dangerous contagious diseases by the order of minister. Cholera and variola are important for Lithuania’s medicine history too, but knowing because the diseases started in a country just from the 19th century, so we are... [to full text]