No description available.

This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.

In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.

The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.

This thesis is focused on the description of the purchasing power parity theory and the theory of the interest rate as the fundamental aspects of exchange rate movements. A large part is devoted to the problems of equilibrium exchange rates and associated anomalies that these equilibrium rates are largely affected. The aim is to highlight the pros and cons of these theories and their practical use in nowadays world. Incomplete validity of purchasing power parity is analyzed by using available data which also leads to examine the presence of deviation from the equilibirum value. These anomalies are divided into economic origin anomalies and anomalies arising from non-market intervention. Despite the frequent critism the theory of purchasing power parity is still the most popular and frequently published theory.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / The main objective of this mini dissertation is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade. The finding of this mini dissertation is however that the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade could be either positive or negative depending on various reasons that will be discussed when the arguments of the theorists that have either found a positive, negative and sometimes indeterminate effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade are discussed. The focus of this mini dissertation will be on the manufacturing trade between the Republic of South Africa with the United States and China. The need for an analysis of exchange rate volatility on international trade arises from the fact that firstly no consensus has been reached on the true effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade and secondly knowledge of what the true effect of exchange rate volatility is on international trade could assist in drafting the appropriate policies at government level. The finding of this mini dissertation represents a challenge for policy recommendations as it reflects the fact that various industries, sectors and subsectors of the economy of the Republic of South Africa are impacted differently by the volatility of the Rand/Yuan and Rand/Dollar exchange rates, respectively, therefore any policy that is drawn up to improve international trade needs to be done on an individual basis for each industry, sector and subsector respectively taking into account the various dynamics and characteristics of each. Firstly in the literature review a detailed discussion of both sides of the exchange rate volatility debate will be outlined. It would be shown why there is a lack of consensus when it comes to the issue of what effect exchange rate volatility has on international trade. On the one hand the argument of those suggest that exchange rate volatility hampers international trade or has a negative effect on international trade, such as Sekantsi, (2008); Onafowora and Owoye, (2008); Chit, (2010); Vergil, (2008); Arize et al, (2000); Arize and Malindretos, (2002); Klaasen, (2004) and Doganlar, (2002), will be reviewed. The argument of those that say that in fact exchange rate volatility has no impact on international trade, such as Raddatz, (2008); Frankel, (2007); Arize and Malindretos, (2002); Arize et al, (2000); Klaasen, (2004); Chowdhury, (1993) and Hassan and Sukar, (1999), will also be reviewed. This discussion and the results that arise from exploring this debate have very important implications on the recommendations that are passed on to government to be considered when drafting policies, such as the New Growth Path (NGP). Secondly when the background of the manufacturing industry in South Africa is discussed, all the initiatives and policies such as the NGP that government has planned and put in place in order to rejuvenate the manufacturing industry will be outlined. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade has a direct impact on these policies. Recommendations regarding how best enhance the policies to rejuvenate the manufacturing industry cannot be possibly made when consensus about the impact of exchange rate volatility has not be reached. For this reason it was it imperative that the true impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade be made clear.

The aim of this thesis is to describe problematics of accounting and reporting of foreign currency, application of exchange rates and rise and settlement of exchange differences in reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards and Czech accounting regulations. The thesis is also focused on comparison of the dissimilarities between those systems, especially in the field of selection and proper use of foreign currencies, exchange rates and on dissimilarities in the rise and settlement of exchange differences in the various stages of the accounting period and various situations. Thesis clearly informs about problematics of currency and exchange rates and shows on practical examples application of such rules.

This dissertation deals with the links between stock market returns and foreign exchange rates, industrial production and exports to Germany in three Central and East European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland). The main questions addressed are: "Do macroeconomic factors related to foreign exchange rates and industrial production affect stock market returns in the Visegrad-3? And what is the impact of exports to Germany on those stock returns?" This analysis makes use of panel-data and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to produce results. Firstly, foreign exchange rates are found to have a negative effect on stock returns. However the divergence in currency returns between the three countries means that the overall effect may be due to some factors that are not accounted for in this analysis. Secondly, there is a positive, but lagged, association between industrial production and stock returns. Thirdly, exports to Germany from the region are also found to have a positive impact on the stock returns of the Visegrad-3. Finally, there is divergence among the three countries with respect to the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock returns. Poland and Hungary are seen to exert a significant amount of influence over the region's stock markets.

The topic researched for this project will be foreigh exchange hedging; the available forms, the uses, the procedures, and the value. This project will expand beyond the typical research and examine the value of hedging through the use of different foreign exchang currency trading strategies to small multinationational corporations.