A crescente entrada de empresas asiáticas e a diminuição das barreiras de entrada vêm aumentando de maneira significativa a concorrência na indústria calçadista global, o que está colocando o setor calçadista nacional em situação difícil e, portanto, todas as mudanças que ocorrem na indústria passam a ter importância estratégica caso afetem a competitividade das empresas, obrigando estas avaliarem seu posicionamento estratégico no mercado. Até o fim de 2004, o setor de exportação de calçados foi privilegiado por uma soma de fatores favoráveis, principalmente a taxa de câmbio. Em 2005, com a valorização do real frente ao dólar, o mercado se retraiu e as vendas externas sofreram uma queda de 23 milhões de pares em comparação com o ano anterior. Nos primeiros meses de 2006, o cenário desfavorável manteve-se e as empresas exportadoras continuaram registrando perdas. Os produtores chineses que atuam no setor estão elevando sua participação pelo mundo de forma avassaladora. Neste cenário que envolve a indústria calçadista nacional, surgem questões fundamentais para que o setor mantenha um desempenho positivo e com possibilidade de elevar sua participação no comércio mundial de calçados. Estas questões passam fundamentalmente por dois aspectos: o primeiro é a perda de competitividade da indústria nacional frente aos competidores asiáticos, o segundo são as alternativas que o setor possui para se manter competitivo no mercado externo e sustentar um desempenho crescente. Algumas hipóteses para estas questões passam pela alta vulnerabilidade do setor frente à variação cambial, influência da concorrência chinesa, legislação tributária e trabalhista extremamente onerosa e ultrapassada. Assim, identificar as possíveis alternativas estratégicas para sustentar a competitividade das empresas exportadoras de calçados, torna-se o objetivo principal desta dissertação. Outros aspectos substanciais serão desenvolvidos no decorrer do estudo, tais como: a descrição do panorama das exportações brasileiras de calçados a partir de 1990; análise do posicionamento estratégico das empresas; avaliação do impacto da variação cambial ao setor calçadista; identificação de opções estratégicas para as empresas exportadoras. Os custo inerentes de se produzir no Brasil atualmente não permitem mais que as empresas concorram com estratégia de baixo custo. Por isto, para que a indústria calçadista nacional seja mantida, é essencial, contudo, que as empresas brasileiras mirem nichos de mercados inexplorados que fiquem fora da concorrência voltada para o baixo custo, sendo necessário que se faça um forte investimento em tecnologia, design e recursos humanos, além de apelo de marketing para o desenvolvimento da marca própria. / The increasing entrance of Asian companies and the reduction of the entrance barriers comes increasing in significant way the competition in the global foowear industry, what it is placing the national footwear’s sector in difficult situation, therefore, all the changes that occur in the industry start to have strategical importance in case of affect the competitiveness of the companies, forcing evaluate its strategic positioning in the market. Until the 2004 end, the sector of exportation of footwear was privileged for an addition of favorable factors, mainly the exchange rate. In 2005, with the valuation of the real front to the dollar, the external market if retracted and business had suffered a fall from 23 million pairs in comparison with the previous year. In the first months of 2006, the favorable scene was remained and the exporting companies had continued registering losses. The Chinese producers that act in the sector are raising its participation for the world of overwhelming form. In this scene that involves the national footwear industry, basic questions so that the sector keeps a positive performance and with possibility appear to raise its participation in the world-wide commerce of footwear. These questions pass basically for two aspects: the first one is the loss of competitiveness of the national industry front to the Asian competitors, as they are the alternatives that the sector possesss to remain itself competitive in the external market and to support a performance increasing. Some hypotheses for these questions pass for the high vulnerability of the sector front to the exchage variation, influence of the Chinese competition, legislation tax and member of labor party extremely onerous and exceeded. Thus, to identify the possible strategical alternatives to support the competitiveness of the exporting companies of footwear, becomes the main objective of this dissertation. Other substantial aspects will be developed during of the study, such as: the description of the view of the Brazilian exportations of footwear from 1990; analysis of the strategical positioning of the companies; evaluation of the impact of the exchange variation to the footwear’s sector; identification of strategical options for the exporting companies. The cost inherent of if producing in Brazil currently do not allow more than the companies concur with strategy of low cost. For this, so that the national industry is kept, it is essential, however, that the Brazilian companies look niches of unexplored markets that are outside of the competition directed toward the low cost, being necessary that if makes a strong investment in technology, design and human resources, beyond appeal marketing the development of the proper mark.

The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.

Submitted by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-01-05T14:19:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RODRIGUES_Elizeu_2015.pdf: 45148626 bytes, checksum: c2601f6494ea32696c5123573351bd95 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-01-05T14:19:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RODRIGUES_Elizeu_2015.pdf: 45148626 bytes, checksum: c2601f6494ea32696c5123573351bd95 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-01-05T14:19:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RODRIGUES_Elizeu_2015.pdf: 45148626 bytes, checksum: c2601f6494ea32696c5123573351bd95 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-05T14:19:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RODRIGUES_Elizeu_2015.pdf: 45148626 bytes, checksum: c2601f6494ea32696c5123573351bd95 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-26 / Não recebi financiamento / This research aims to investigate the relation that exists between the exchange rate and the international competitiveness of the Brazilian transformation industries classified by level of technology. It begins with a synthesis of the several studies that show the importance of the exchange rate to the development of the country and, particularly to the Brazilian case, it highlights those that point a domestic currency appreciation and stress that appreciation is contributing to put the country down in backward position in technological terms. Therefore, some authors propose the Real should be depreciated relative to Dollar to promote an internal productive diversification and the sophisticated sectors development. That discussion motived us making econometrical analyses and graphics linking exchange rate, exports and international competitiveness index to investigate if exchange rate variations impacted in determinant form and distinctly the internacional competitiveness of Brazilian industries. The methodology was used the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index of Balassa (1965) and VAR models to connect exchange rate and industries exports. The RCA index time evolution was analyzed in graphics together with the exchange rate from 1999 until 2011. The results has been showed that occurred a loss of competitiveness to the majority of national industries and exchange rate appreciation most of the analyzed period still affected the industries in the distinct manner. Finally, almost all industries did not get competitiveness gains in the period of exchange rate depreciation as expected, because they did not have enough time to react. / Neste trabalho, buscou-se investigar as relações existentes entre a taxa de câmbio e a competitividade internacional das indústrias de transformação brasileiras classificadas por nível de tecnologia. Iniciou-se com uma síntese de vários estudos, que apresentam a importância do câmbio para o desenvolvimento de um país e, particularmente para o caso brasileiro, destacam-se àqueles que apontam uma apreciação cambial e frisam que isso está contribuindo para deixar o país em posição atrasada em termos tecnológicos. Por isso, alguns autores sugerem que o real deveria se depreciar frente ao dólar para favorecer a diversificação produtiva interna e o desenvolvimento dos setores de ponta. Motivado por essa discussão, foram feitas análises econométricas e gráficas relacionando taxa de câmbio, exportações e índice de competitividade internacional com o objetivo de investigar se as variações cambiais impactaram de forma determinante e distinta a competitividade internacional das indústrias brasileiras. Como metodologia foram utilizados o Índice de Vantagem Comparativa Revelada (IVCR) desenvolvido por Balassa (1965) e modelos VAR que relacionam taxa de câmbio e exportações das indústrias. A evolução temporal dos IVCR foi verificada em gráficos juntamente com a taxa de câmbio de 1999 até 2011. Os resultados mostraram que houve perda de competitividade para a maioria das indústrias nacionais e apreciação cambial na maior parte do período analisado, que a apreciação cambial atingiu as indústrias de maneira diversificada e que a maioria das indústrias não auferiu ganhos de competitividade no período de depreciação cambial, como se esperava, dado que o tempo que ela ocorre não foi o suficiente para que essas indústrias reagissem.

A crescente entrada de empresas asiáticas e a diminuição das barreiras de entrada vêm aumentando de maneira significativa a concorrência na indústria calçadista global, o que está colocando o setor calçadista nacional em situação difícil e, portanto, todas as mudanças que ocorrem na indústria passam a ter importância estratégica caso afetem a competitividade das empresas, obrigando estas avaliarem seu posicionamento estratégico no mercado. Até o fim de 2004, o setor de exportação de calçados foi privilegiado por uma soma de fatores favoráveis, principalmente a taxa de câmbio. Em 2005, com a valorização do real frente ao dólar, o mercado se retraiu e as vendas externas sofreram uma queda de 23 milhões de pares em comparação com o ano anterior. Nos primeiros meses de 2006, o cenário desfavorável manteve-se e as empresas exportadoras continuaram registrando perdas. Os produtores chineses que atuam no setor estão elevando sua participação pelo mundo de forma avassaladora. Neste cenário que envolve a indústria calçadista nacional, surgem questões fundamentais para que o setor mantenha um desempenho positivo e com possibilidade de elevar sua participação no comércio mundial de calçados. Estas questões passam fundamentalmente por dois aspectos: o primeiro é a perda de competitividade da indústria nacional frente aos competidores asiáticos, o segundo são as alternativas que o setor possui para se manter competitivo no mercado externo e sustentar um desempenho crescente. Algumas hipóteses para estas questões passam pela alta vulnerabilidade do setor frente à variação cambial, influência da concorrência chinesa, legislação tributária e trabalhista extremamente onerosa e ultrapassada. Assim, identificar as possíveis alternativas estratégicas para sustentar a competitividade das empresas exportadoras de calçados, torna-se o objetivo principal desta dissertação. Outros aspectos substanciais serão desenvolvidos no decorrer do estudo, tais como: a descrição do panorama das exportações brasileiras de calçados a partir de 1990; análise do posicionamento estratégico das empresas; avaliação do impacto da variação cambial ao setor calçadista; identificação de opções estratégicas para as empresas exportadoras. Os custo inerentes de se produzir no Brasil atualmente não permitem mais que as empresas concorram com estratégia de baixo custo. Por isto, para que a indústria calçadista nacional seja mantida, é essencial, contudo, que as empresas brasileiras mirem nichos de mercados inexplorados que fiquem fora da concorrência voltada para o baixo custo, sendo necessário que se faça um forte investimento em tecnologia, design e recursos humanos, além de apelo de marketing para o desenvolvimento da marca própria. / The increasing entrance of Asian companies and the reduction of the entrance barriers comes increasing in significant way the competition in the global foowear industry, what it is placing the national footwear’s sector in difficult situation, therefore, all the changes that occur in the industry start to have strategical importance in case of affect the competitiveness of the companies, forcing evaluate its strategic positioning in the market. Until the 2004 end, the sector of exportation of footwear was privileged for an addition of favorable factors, mainly the exchange rate. In 2005, with the valuation of the real front to the dollar, the external market if retracted and business had suffered a fall from 23 million pairs in comparison with the previous year. In the first months of 2006, the favorable scene was remained and the exporting companies had continued registering losses. The Chinese producers that act in the sector are raising its participation for the world of overwhelming form. In this scene that involves the national footwear industry, basic questions so that the sector keeps a positive performance and with possibility appear to raise its participation in the world-wide commerce of footwear. These questions pass basically for two aspects: the first one is the loss of competitiveness of the national industry front to the Asian competitors, as they are the alternatives that the sector possesss to remain itself competitive in the external market and to support a performance increasing. Some hypotheses for these questions pass for the high vulnerability of the sector front to the exchage variation, influence of the Chinese competition, legislation tax and member of labor party extremely onerous and exceeded. Thus, to identify the possible strategical alternatives to support the competitiveness of the exporting companies of footwear, becomes the main objective of this dissertation. Other substantial aspects will be developed during of the study, such as: the description of the view of the Brazilian exportations of footwear from 1990; analysis of the strategical positioning of the companies; evaluation of the impact of the exchange variation to the footwear’s sector; identification of strategical options for the exporting companies. The cost inherent of if producing in Brazil currently do not allow more than the companies concur with strategy of low cost. For this, so that the national industry is kept, it is essential, however, that the Brazilian companies look niches of unexplored markets that are outside of the competition directed toward the low cost, being necessary that if makes a strong investment in technology, design and human resources, beyond appeal marketing the development of the proper mark.

Orientadores: Marcio Luiz de Andrade Netto, Jose Roberto Securato , Alessandra de Avila Montini / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T14:31:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Freitas_AntonioAirtonCarneirode_D.pdf: 2395437 bytes, checksum: 02e1418421c18b7b627cbfe5f41ed90a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: A inferência sobre a previsibilidade de sistemas dinâmicos não lineares multivariados tem sido freqüentemente realizada a partir de testes que podem induzir à conclusões equivocadas. Isto porque em muitas pesquisas realizadas os testes utilizados são o de autocorrelação, o da razão de variância e do espectro, que só verificam a existência ou não da correlação serial de componentes lineares. Neste trabalho, também são utilizados testes para avaliar a correlação serial de componentes não lineares. Busca-se provar empiricamente se as classes de modelos ARMA-GARCH e neurais, bem como a combinação deles, tem qualidade de previsão superior ao modelo diferença Martingale em previsões na média condicional dos retornos da taxa de câmbio brasileira e da umidade em microclima. Um método de seleção de variáveis é proposto para melhorar os resultados obtidos com modelos de previsão multivariados não baseados em teoria. As não linearidades negligenciadas durante o ajuste dos modelos neurais são avaliadas por meio do teste de Blake and Kapetanios (2003). O teste de White (2000) é utilizado para comparar os modelos de previsão propostos em conjunto com o modelo benchmark. Foi constatado empiricamente que os dois processos analisados não são do tipo diferença Martingale / Abstract: The inference on predictability of nonlinear multivariate systems has been done with some possible misleading conclusions when the test statistics are insignificant because autocorrelation, variance ratio and spectrum tests check only serial uncorrelatedness (linear components). This work empirically explores the non linear components and if the ARMA-GARCH, neural network models, as well as their combination, outperform a Martingale model in the conditional mean out-of-sample forecasts. It is proposed a variable selection method to improve the results obtained with multivariate models without a priori knowledge. The neglected nonlinearities and data snooping bias were avoided applying respectively the Blake and Kapetanios (2003) and the White (2000) reality check tests. The empirical results indicate that the Brazilian exchange rates and the microclimate humidity are not Martingale differences / Doutorado / Engenharia de Computação / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.

This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.

The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

The purpose of this Master's Thesis is to analyze effects of Foreign Exchange Rates on financial statements under Czech accounting regulations and IFRS. It focuses on analyzing and comparing both regulations when choosing the reporting currency or when applying rules on the usage of the correct exchange rates. By using practical excercises it compares differencies in the calculation of transaction and translation differencies with the focus on the impact on the financial statements under the both regulations.