O clássico Equilíbrio Econômico nunca foi realidade, especialmente após as primeiras crises dos mercados financeiros. Hoje se sabe que as economias estão longe da situação de equilíbrio, sendo vistas mais como um processo em construção do que um estado estático propriamente dito. Se assemelham a um sistema estocástico, e não determinístico como um dia se pensou. O Brasil é um país jovem, e seus sistemas econômico e político ainda estão em formação. Tendo em vista todas as mudanças e crises que o país tem sofrido em sua história recente, este estudo busca uma forma alternativa para que tais eventos possam ser detectados e, principalmente, de certa forma antecipados, para que as providências cabíveis possam ser tomadas a tempo de se evitar grandes perdas financeiras. Para tal, as medidas de Complexidade de SDL e LMC são aplicadas às séries do câmbio dolar-real, Ibovespa e CDS Brasil e avaliadas durante eventos de crises. Detectados os principais eventos de cada série, \"volta-se no tempo\", ao início da crise, e avalia-se, dada a informação disponível naquele momento, a possibilidade de se detectar a crise em seus primeiros estágios. Ao fim, conclui-se que as Medidas de Complexidade LMC e SDL são robustas na detecção de aumentos de volatilidade nos dados de séries financeiras. Assim sendo, apresentam grande potencial como indicadores precoces de crises financeiras. Para tal, não são necessários cálculos extensivos, nem grandes históricos de dados; e também não são necessárias hipóteses sobre a distribuição de probabilidades destes dados. Acredita-se que este seja o primeiro passo em direção à construção de um monitor de crises em tempo real. / The classical Economic Equilibrium has never been a reality, especially after the first financial markets crisis events. It is known nowadays that economies are far from their Equilibrium, they are seen more as a process under construction, not a static state; a stochastic instead of deterministic process, as it was thought before. Brazil is a young country, hence its economic and political systems are still maturing. In light of all the changes and crises it has been suffering in the recent history, this research seeks for an alternative mechanism to detect and anticipate these crisis events, in order to avoid massive financial losses. To this end, the LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are applied to the Dollar-Real exchange rates, Ibovespa and Brazilian CDS time series during crisis events. After detecting the main events, the idea is to \"turn back in time\", to the events\' inception, and analyse if, given the limited amount of information on that time, the crises could be detected on their early stages. Finally, this research concludes that both LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are robust in detecting volatility increases on the financial series, revealing good potential as crises early warning. However, no extensive calculus, large samples, or strong assumptions about the data probability distributions are needed to this aim. Therefore, these results represent the very first step towards a crises real time monitor.

Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA. To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated. Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona. In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period. The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.

This thesis examines the relationship between food prices, oil prices, carbon emission prices, exchange rates and global risk perception. To obtain the effects of these variables on the food prices, Toda and Yamamoto procedure is employed for 5-day week daily time series covering the period February 27, 2008 and March 21, 2011. The empirical results indicate that only volatility index Granger causes food prices. Furthermore, according to results of generalized impulse response plots food prices respond to all variables in the short run.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

<p>Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile</p><p>exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA.</p><p>To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated.</p><p>Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased</p><p>with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona.</p><p>In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next</p><p>period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period.</p><p>The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.</p>

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2000. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-114). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2000. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-114). Also available on the Internet.

This study reviews three of Tobin’s major contributions to economics, namely; Tobin’s q , liquidity preference as a behavior towards risk, and Tobin’s global transaction tax on foreign exchange transactions to identify any potential unifying features. The original suggestion of this thesis, given Tobin’s last contribution, is the role of savings that links all three contributions. The extension of this study aims to review these contributions so as to come up with po ssible links between them and apply the theory of q to a sample of forty five South African firms to a ssess firm diversification and performance measurement when it comes to monopoly profits, as well as the stability of any exchange rate when it comes to the Tobin tax issue, given South Africa’s links to the Pound, Dollar and Euro. Our findings out of the empirical analysis performed hints at investors how to go abo ut in maximizing profit in the South African market based on the diversification s trategies they can adopt. Indeed non-diversified firms have a higher risk involved a nd performed better than diversified ones from 2007 to 2009. Our results bas ed on book values are also of great relevancy to entrepreneurs in assessing the degree of diversification optional to them. The deviation of q from unity is another interesting point to note wh en it comes to ordinary profits for monopoly firms like Eskom. Tobin’s q and risk are indeed connected through discounting and the relationship between risk and a transaction tax imposed on international financial transactions is taxation itself. In order for economic growth to arise into an economy, investment is cruc ial and this is achieved if volatility in financial markets is reduced, and hence the impo rtance of reviewing the Tobin tax. The focus here is to link savings, the Tobin tax an d the issue of international financial market liberalization to determine the impact on gl obal developments and trace these through to the South African situation. We also rev iew Tobin’s q and its important link to the IS/LM framework which differs from the normal textbook a nd Keynesian view. In other words we explore in detail, Tobin’s (1969) general equilibrium approach to monetary policy and look at how financi al policies and events can influence aggregate demand, through an effect on th e valuation of physical assets relative to their replacement cost. As the review h opes to find a common theme, in the three contributions, we present a discussion of eac h original article in some detail. Chapter Two and Three includes Tobin’s q and portfolio decisions respectively. Chapter Four covers the tax on foreign exchange tra nsactions in greater detail, and vii attempts to view this as a solution to the passing current world economic crisis. A final chapter provides a summary of our results and modest macroeconomic proposals for South Africa. / Thesis (M.Comm.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.

This study investigates the validity of the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential (RERI) relationship for a sample of twenty-three developing and developed countries. The results based on the Johansen cointegration analysis suggest the validity of the long-run RERI relationship only for a small number of countries including Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Chile, Israel and Norway. Real interest rate differentials are found to be positively associated with real exchange rates in the long-run for every country except Israel. The results of the weak exogeneity tests suggest that real exchange rates are the adjusting variables for Italy, Switzerland, Belgium and Israel. Consistent with an endogenous response of domestic interest rates to a real exchange rate shock policy rule, real interest rate differentials are found to be endogenous for the parameters of the cointegration vector for Canada, Chile and Norway.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, 2005. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-88).