This study focuses on foreign direct investment ("FDI") and its importance to the economy of South Africa. Recognising that FDI, notwithstanding the type, can contribute to economic growth and development, most countries including South Africa are constantly working to attract it, and hence its demand has become highly competitive. However, FDI does not go without some negative effects, such as conflicts between host and investor country, and the creation of damaging competition to local firms. These negative effects could be minimised if policies and strategies for the promotion and attraction of FDI is part of, and integrated into, general economic development and economic reform policies, and not seen in isolation. Although South Africa has implemented strategies to attract more FDI, a refinement of some of these policies is needed if the country is to be successful in this regard. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

The contribution of this thesis is to build a small macro-econometric model of the Namibian economy, which demonstrates that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that there is a contemporaneous relationship between real wage, productivity, unemployment and interest rates in Namibia. This phenomenon has not yet been exploited using macro-econometric modelling, and thus, represents a significant contribution to modelling literature in Namibia. The determination of the sources of unemployment also receives special attention given that high unemployment is a chronic problem in Namibia. All models specified and estimated in the study use the SVAR methodology for the period 1980 to 2013. The study develops a small macro-econometric model using three modular experiments, which include, a basic model, models that separately append demand and exchange rate channels variables to the basic model, and the specification of a small macro-econometric model. The ultimate aim is to find out if monetary policy plays a role in influencing labour market and nominal variables. The hypothesis that the basic real wage, productivity, unemployment rate and interest rate system can be estimated simultaneously is validated. Further, demand and exchange rate channels variables are found to have important additional information, which explains the monetary transmission process, and that shocks to labour market variables affect monetary policy in Namibia. The results also show that the demand channel (import prices and bank credit to the private sector) and the exchange rate channel (nominal exchange rate) variables have important additional information, which affects monetary transmission process in Namibia, which justifies their inclusion in the small macro-econometric model. In addition, shocks to the import price and exchange rate in the macro-econometric model significantly affect labour market variables. However, shocks to bank credit only partially perform as expected, implying that its results need to be considered cautiously. The study further finds that tight monetary policy shocks significantly affect real and nominal variables in Namibia. The results also show that shocks to all variables in the unemployment model significantly affect unemployment, suggesting that the hysteresis assumption is corroborated. This implies that long run aggregate demand is non-neutral in Namibia. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship.<p><p>Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is). / Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The dissertation consists of four empirical papers in the field of monetary economics. The first paper examines the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in the selected euro area countries, the next two papers shed light on macroeconomic spillovers in the remaining EU countries which are not part of the single currency area, while the last paper focuses on the exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic.

Cette thèse traite de deux nouveaux débats sur le central banking qui ont émergé après la crise financière de 2008: le débat sur les pertes financières aux bilans des banques centrales, et le débat sur le niveau élevé des taux bancaires par rapport aux taux de marché après la crise. Les deux premiers chapitres s’inscrivent dans le premier débat. Le lien entre la solidité financière des banques centrales et l’inflation est étudié empiriquement dans le premier chapitre, en se basant sur un large panel de 82 pays. Théoriquement, ce lien est potentiellement présent lorsque le gouvernement ne soutient pas financièrement la banque centrale et que celle-ci ne peut donc compter que sur elle-même pour améliorer sa situation financière. Les résultats du premier chapitre montrent qu’en pratique tel est effectivement le cas: les détériorations aux bilans des banques centrales s’accompagnent d’une inflation plus forte lorsque la banque centrale n’a pas de soutien fiscal. Les résultats ne montrent pas de lien dans un contexte général, comme la théorie le suggère. Dans le second chapitre, il est analysé et conceptualisé l’argument selon lequel une banque centrale peut mettre fin à un régime de change fixe ou quasi-fixe par peur de futures pertes financières. L’analyse est ensuite appliquée au cas du cours plancher mis en place par la Banque Centrale de Suisse (BNS) entre 2011 et 2015 vis-à-vis de l’euro. Cet argument a été avancé par beaucoup pour expliquer la fin de la politique de cours plancher en Suisse, sans qu’aucune recherche avant celle-ci n’évalue sa pertinence. Les estimations empiriques du Chapitre 2 permettent de montrer que cet argument avait une crédibilité: elles montrent que dans des scénarios crédibles, en cassant le peg avec l’euro 17 mois plus tard, la BNS aurait essuyé une perte considérable, dépassant un seuil perçu comme limite par beaucoup de banquiers centraux. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse s’intéresse à l’écart entre les taux de dépôts et le taux de marché en zone euro (l’EURIBOR) qui est devenu significativement positif après la crise, conduisant certains à parler de « sur-rémunération » des dépôts. Ce chapitre soutient que la majorité de cet écart ne s’explique non pas par un comportement anormal des dépôts comme certains l’ont avancé, mais au contraire par une perte de pertinence de l’EURIBOR. Construisant une alternative à l’EURIBOR, ce chapitre conclut que le risque bancaire a eu une influence primordiale sur le niveau de rémunération des dépôts dans le monde d’après-crise. / This thesis deals with the new debates on central banking which arose after the 2008 global financial crisis. More particularly, two of such debates are addressed: the debates on the financial losses in central banks’ balance sheets, and the debates on the high level of bank rates compared to market interest rates following the financial crisis. The two first chapters are related to the first debate. The link between central bank financial strength and inflation is empirically examined in a large sample of 82 countries. Theoretically, this link is potentially present when the government does not fiscally support the central bank, so that the central bank can only rely on itself to improve its financial situation. The results show that in practice central bank balance sheet deteriorations indeed lead to higher inflation when fiscal support is absent. The results, based on a particularly meticulous and consistent sample selection, do not show the presence of a link between the two variables in a general context, as the theory suggests. In the second chapter, I analyze and conceptualize the argument according to which a central bank can end a peg exchange rate regime by fear of making significant losses in the future, and I apply this analysis to the Swiss franc peg between 2011 and 2015. This argument was brought forward by many commentators to explain the Swiss move, while no research before this one did study the relevance of this argument. The empirical estimates in Chapter 2 show that this argument indeed had some credibility: under some credible scenarios the Swiss central bank would have incurred significant losses by breaking its peg 17 months later, with losses exceeding a threshold judged as relevant by many central bankers. The last chapter of this thesis focuses on the spread between deposit rates and market interest rates in the Eurozone (more specifically, the EURIBOR), which became significantly positive after the financial crisis, leading some commentators to claim that deposits were over-remunerated. This chapter upholds that the major part of this spread is not due to an « abnormal » behavior of deposits but is rather due to the fact that the EURIBOR has become irrelevant after the global financial crisis. Building an alternative to the EURIBOR, the chapter concludes that banking risks have been having a major influence on the level of deposit remuneration.