This collected volume gives a concise account of the most rel-evant scientific results of the COST Action IS1104 "The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy evaluation", a four-year project supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). It is divided into three parts reflecting the different perspectives under which complex spatial economic systems have been studied: (i) the Macro perspective looks at the interactions among international or regional trading partners; (ii) the Meso perspective considers the functioning of (financial, labour) markets as social network structures; and, finally, (iii) the Micro perspective focuses on the strategic choices of single firms and households. This Volume points also at open issues to be addressed in future research.

Le régulateur des marchés financiers, en réponse à l'augmentation progressive de ses pouvoirs de sanction, s'est vu enfermé dans un carcan procédural si étroit qu'il risque à terme d'en paralyser le fonctionnement. Cette thèse vise à démontrer comment le couple formé par l'AMF et l'autorité judiciaire se complète pour animer le système français de régulation des marchés financiers. La première partie détaille l'évolution historique de la régulation française qui a vu ses régulateurs successifs étendre leurs champs de pouvoirs, de sanction notamment. Pour légitimer ses nouvelles attributions quasi juridictionnelles le régulateur a été contraint de se voir doté d'un socle procédural de droit commun, qu'il partage avec les juridictions qui sous certains aspects semblent avoir absorbé sa fonction régulatrice des marchés financiers, ramenant l'AMF à un rôle d'auxiliaire de justice. La seconde partie montre que le contrôle judiciaire des décisions de l'AM F tient néanmoins compte de la spécificité de sa mission, adoptant une vision globale des différents niveaux de régulation, au risque parfois de perdre en sécurité juridique pourtant attendue par les acteurs des marchés financier. En effet, le juge participant à l'œuvre générale de régulation aux cotés de l'AMF, se voit doté d'un pouvoir quasi régulationnel. Pour que l'AMF réintègre pleinement sa fonction régulatrice qui fait sa raison d'être nous plaiderons pour un renforcement de ses pouvoirs spécifiques. / The regulator of financial markets, in response to a gradual increase in its powers of sanction was locked in a narrow procedural system that could eventually paralyze the regulator. This thesis aims to demonstrate how the couple formed by the AMF and the judiciary is completed to animate the French system of regulation of financial markets. The first part describes the historical evolution of the French regulation which has seen successive regulators expand their fields of power, including sanctions .To legitimize his new quasi-judicial functions the regulator was forced to be with a procedural basis of common law , which it shares with the courts which in some ways seem to have absorbed its regulatory function of financial markets, reducing the AMF to a judicial officer state. The second part shows that the judicial review of decisions of the AMF take nevertheless into account the specificity of its mission, taking a holistic view of the different levels of regulation ,sometimes at the risk of losing in legal certainty yet expected by the actors in the financial markets. Indeed, the judge involved in the overall implementation of regulation with AMF, is seen with a quasi regulationnal power. For the AMF fully reinstated its regulatory function that motivated its creation we plead for a strengthening of its specific powers.

Seguindo as linhas de pesquisa que visam relacionar o impacto do relacionamento com os clientes aos resultados financeiros da empresa, o presente estudo procura avaliar o impacto do word-of-mouth (WOM) negativo no retorno da ação da empresa. O comportamento de falar mal da empresa por parte dos consumidores insatisfeitos pode destruir o valor dos market-based assets (customer equity e brand equity), comprometendo o desempenho das ações da companhia. Considerando a literatura existente, esta pesquisa busca identificar o impacto do WOM negativo no desempenho das ações das empresas no curto e no longo prazo. O primeiro estudo replica o modelo de Luo (2007) para identificar o impacto do WOM negativo nos retornos de curto prazo da ação das empresas. O segundo estudo busca verificar o impacto de longo prazo a partir da comparação do desempenho de portfólios compostos por ações de empresas em relação ao seu nível de reclamações. Os resultados do primeiro estudo convergiram em certa medida com os resultados apresentados por Luo (2007) para o setor bancário, apontando para um impacto negativo das reclamações no retorno da ação, mas foram mistos quando as empresas foram avaliadas individualmente. O segundo estudo demonstrou que o portfólio composto por ações de empresas menos reclamadas teve um retorno acumulado superior ao portfólio composto pelas ações mais reclamadas, além de apresentar um risco inferior ao risco de mercado. As implicações e limitações do estudo são discutidas e são sugeridas pesquisas futuras a partir deste estudo. / Following previous research that seek to integrate customer relationship impact to firm value, the present study focus to assess the impact of negative word-of-mouth (WOM) on stock returns. Dissatisfied customers that spread negative WOM about the company can ruin market-based assets (customer equity and brand equity) and hurt its performance. Based on present literature, this research seeks to identify the impact of negative WOM on stocks’ short and long term performances. The first study replicates Luo’s (2007) model to identify the short term impact of negative WOM on stock performance. The second aims to identify the long term impact of negative WOM by comparing the performance of portfolios created based on companies level of complaints. The first study accomplished to partially replicate the results found by Luo (2007) for banking industry, finding a negative impact of negative WOM on firm stock returns, although it found mixed results when the impact was assessed for each company individually. The second study demonstrates that a portfolio with less complained companies has a superior performance over a portfolio with more complained companies, while presenting a risk below market’s level. The results implications and limitations are discussed and further studies suggestions are made.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:26:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-12-17Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:54:26Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 nervis_jj_me_bauru.pdf: 692937 bytes, checksum: a9ef52afbfe5a4ae6482213875cfd47d (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Estudos que proporcionem conhecer de forma mais adequada o mercado de capitais brasileiro são uma necessidade para um país que a cada dia tem a sua importância no cenário internacional acentuada. Compreender a dinâmica das flutuações do mercado de ações é um desafio científico possibilitado, no Brasil, por dois aspectos importantes: disponibilidade de dados de alta frequencia sobre os preços praticados no mercado e a utilização de métodos computacionais. O objetivo dessa pesquisa é verificar e analisar os principais fatos estilizados observados em séries temporais financeiras: agrupamento de volatilidade, distribuições de probabilidade com caudas gordas e a presença de memória de longo alcance na série temporal dos retornos absolutos. Para isso, foram utilizadas e analisadas as cotações intraday de ações de dez companhias negociadas na Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros que correspondem juntas a uma participação de 52,1%, para a data de 01/09/2009, no Ìndice Bovespa. Verificou-se a existência de vários fatos estilizados em todas as ações da amostra, bem como se procedeu a caracterização desses comportamentos por meio de gráficos e medidas estatísticas / Studies that provide to know in a more suitable way the Brazilian money market are a necessity for a country that has its importance increased in the international scenery every day. Understanding the dynamics of the stock market fluctuation is a scientific challenge possible, in Brazil, because of two important aspects: availability of high frequency data on the prices practiced in the stock market and the use of computing methods. The objective of this survey is to verify and analyze the stylized facts observed in financial seasonal series: gathering of volatility, probability distribution with fat tails and the presence of high reaching memory in the seasonal series of abolute recurrence. For this, it was used and analyzed the intraday quotations over stocks of ten enterprises in the stock exchange, commodities and futures that correspond together to a participation of 52,1% to th data of 09/01/2009, in the Bovespa index. It was verified the existence os several stylized fact in all stock samples and how it was preceded the characterization of this behavior by graphic displays and statistical measures

The effects associated with foreign direct investments onto a host economy are perceived to be multi folded. FDI is perceived to enhance, not only, the accumulation of capital in a host country, but also to promote productivity, enable introduction of new processes and skills as well as enable access to new markets. However, empirical research upon if foreign direct investments affects economic growth is ambiguous. The purpose of this thesis is due to such to investigate whether the local financial market enable FDI to affect growth positively. Hence, the aim of this paper is to establish if the domestic financial sector is a vital precondition for foreign direct investment to have a positive significant effect on GDP per capita growth for developing countries. By the use of panel data regressions and three regression models, 26 countries were investigated between the years 1996 and 2015. The empirical results enabled the conclusion that local financial markets do in fact improve the effect associated with foreign direct investment for the 26 countries investigated between the years 1996 and 2015. Thus, local financial markets are a significant and crucial precondition for FDI to affect a host economy's growth positively. Due to such, developing countries should aim towards preserving as well as developing their financial markets.

Cette thèse est divisée en deux sections. La première section adresse la question sur les conséquences des interventions des politiques budgétaires sur l'économie et la deuxième section traite de la problématique de la liquidité des titres européens de la dette souveraine pendant la récente crise financière, l'effet d'un choc de liquidité sur ces titres et les conséquences des réponses politiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact d'un choc de politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur l'activité économique et d'autres variables macroéconomiques en utilisant une approche alternative à deux étapes pour l'identification d'un choc budgétaire. Le deuxième chapitre analyse conjointement les effets d'une combinaison de chocs de politique fiscale et monétaire sur les variables macroéconomiques et financières, en utilisant un modèle de Time- V arying Parameters Factor Augmented Vector (TVP-F A V AR). Le troisième chapitre étudie le rôle des titres de la dette souveraine comme collatéral dans le marché interbancaire . En particulier, dans le marché dès pensions livrées, on montre comment une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, peut représenter un canal dans la transmission des crises bancaires aux crises de la dette souveraine dans les pays de la périphérie de la zone euro. Une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, qui ont comme collatéraux les titres de la dette souveraine peut être modélisée comme un choc de liquidité sur les titres de la dette souveraine. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l'impact de ce choc dans un modèle stochastique dynamique d'équilibre général (DSGE) avec frictions financières et analyse les conséquences des mesures économiques non-conventionnelles pour restaurer la liquidité dans les marchés financiers. / This dissertation is divided in two sections. The first section addresses the question of the consequences of fiscal policy interventions on the economy and the second section analyzes the issue of the liquidity of European Government bonds during the recent financial crisis, the effect ofliquidity shock on these securities and consequences ofpolicy responses. The frrst chapter studies the impact of a discretionary government spending shock on economic activity and other macroeconomic variables by using an alternative two-step procedure for the identification of the govemment spending shock. The second chapter analyzes the effects of a combination of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables using a Time Varying Parameters Factor Augmented VAR (TVP-FA VAR) mode!. The third chapter investigates the European market of repurchase agreements and shows that government bonds represent a key fraction of the collateral in these transactions. lt also examines the effects of a rise in haircuts on the value of govemment bonds and shows that this mechanism may represent a channel in the transmission mechanism of banking and sovereign-debt crises in the periphery of the Eurozone. Following the empirical findings of the third chapter, the last chapter proposes a DSGE model with financial frictions to assess the impact of a negative liquidity shock and the consequences ofunconventional policy.

Seguindo as linhas de pesquisa que visam relacionar o impacto do relacionamento com os clientes aos resultados financeiros da empresa, o presente estudo procura avaliar o impacto do word-of-mouth (WOM) negativo no retorno da ação da empresa. O comportamento de falar mal da empresa por parte dos consumidores insatisfeitos pode destruir o valor dos market-based assets (customer equity e brand equity), comprometendo o desempenho das ações da companhia. Considerando a literatura existente, esta pesquisa busca identificar o impacto do WOM negativo no desempenho das ações das empresas no curto e no longo prazo. O primeiro estudo replica o modelo de Luo (2007) para identificar o impacto do WOM negativo nos retornos de curto prazo da ação das empresas. O segundo estudo busca verificar o impacto de longo prazo a partir da comparação do desempenho de portfólios compostos por ações de empresas em relação ao seu nível de reclamações. Os resultados do primeiro estudo convergiram em certa medida com os resultados apresentados por Luo (2007) para o setor bancário, apontando para um impacto negativo das reclamações no retorno da ação, mas foram mistos quando as empresas foram avaliadas individualmente. O segundo estudo demonstrou que o portfólio composto por ações de empresas menos reclamadas teve um retorno acumulado superior ao portfólio composto pelas ações mais reclamadas, além de apresentar um risco inferior ao risco de mercado. As implicações e limitações do estudo são discutidas e são sugeridas pesquisas futuras a partir deste estudo. / Following previous research that seek to integrate customer relationship impact to firm value, the present study focus to assess the impact of negative word-of-mouth (WOM) on stock returns. Dissatisfied customers that spread negative WOM about the company can ruin market-based assets (customer equity and brand equity) and hurt its performance. Based on present literature, this research seeks to identify the impact of negative WOM on stocks’ short and long term performances. The first study replicates Luo’s (2007) model to identify the short term impact of negative WOM on stock performance. The second aims to identify the long term impact of negative WOM by comparing the performance of portfolios created based on companies level of complaints. The first study accomplished to partially replicate the results found by Luo (2007) for banking industry, finding a negative impact of negative WOM on firm stock returns, although it found mixed results when the impact was assessed for each company individually. The second study demonstrates that a portfolio with less complained companies has a superior performance over a portfolio with more complained companies, while presenting a risk below market’s level. The results implications and limitations are discussed and further studies suggestions are made.

Le but de cette thèse est d’approfondir les connaissances académiques sur les variations jointes des actifs financiers à haute fréquence en les analysant sous un point de vue novateur. Nous tirons profit d’une base de données de prix tick-by-tick pour mettre en lumière de nouveaux faits stylises sur la corrélation haute fréquence, et également pour tester la validité empirique de modèles multivariés. Dans le chapitre 1, nous discutons des raisons pour lesquelles la corrélation haute fréquence est d’une importance capitale pour le trading. Par ailleurs, nous passons en revue la littérature empirique et théorique sur la corrélation à de petites échelles de temps. Puis nous décrivons les principales caractéristiques du jeu de données que nous utilisons. Enfin, nous énonçons les résultats obtenus dans cette thèse. Dans le chapitre 2, nous proposons une extension du modèle de subordination au cas multivarié. Elle repose sur la définition d’un temps événementiel global qui agrège l’activité financière de tous les actifs considérés. Nous testons la capacité de notre modèle à capturer les propriétés notables de la distribution multivariée empirique des rendements et observons de convaincantes similarités. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les relations lead/lag à haute fréquence en utilisant un estimateur de fonction de corrélation adapte aux données tick-by-tick. Nous illustrons sa supériorité par rapport à l’estimateur standard de corrélation pour détecter le phénomène de lead/lag. Nous établissons un parallèle entre le lead/lag et des mesures classiques de liquidité et révélons un arbitrage pour déterminer les paires optimales pour le trading de lead/lag. Enfin, nous évaluons la performance d’un indicateur basé sur le lead/lag pour prévoir l’évolution des prix à court terme. Dans le chapitre 4, nous nous intéressons au profil saisonnier de la corrélation intra-journalière. Nous estimons ce profil sur quatre univers d’actions et observons des ressemblances frappantes. Nous tentons d’incorporer ce fait stylise dans un modèle de prix tick-by-tick base sur des processus de Hawkes. Le modèle ainsi construit capture le profil de corrélation empirique assez finement, malgré sa difficulté à atteindre le niveau de corrélation absolu. / This thesis aims at providing insight into comovements of financial assets at high frequency from an original point of view. We take advantage of a database of tick-by-tick prices to bring to light new stylized facts on high frequency correlation as well as to check the empirical validity of multivariate modelling frameworks. In chapter 1, we elaborate on the reasons why high frequency correlation is of the utmost importance for trading purposes. We also briefly review the empirical and theoretical literature on correlation at small time scales. Then, we describe the main features of the data set we use. Finally, we enunciate the results obtained in this thesis. In chapter 2, we suggest a way of extending the subordination modelling to the multivariate case. This relies on the definition of a global event time that merges the trading activity of all assets under consideration. We test the ability of our model to capture salient features of the empirical multivariate probability distribution of returns and find a convincing agreement. In chapter 3, we study high frequency lead/lag relationships using a suitable cross-correlation estimator for tick-by-tick data. We show its superiority over the classical correlation estimator in detecting lead/lag patterns. We relate lead/lag to standard liquidity measures and exhibit a trade-off to find optimal pairs for lead/lag trading. Finally, we evaluate the performance of a lead/lag indicator in forecasting the short-term evolution of prices. In chapter 4, we focus on the intraday correlation seasonal pattern. We estimate this pattern over four universes of stocks and observe striking similarities. We attempt to incorporate this stylized fact into a tick-by-tick price model based upon Hawkes processes. The resulting model captures the empirical profile of correlation quite well, though it doesn’t match the absolute level of correlation.

This paper examined the probability that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congresses. Based on historical data, it used the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of the weekly and monthly percentage change of the SSE50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate one week and one month prior to the most recent 17th, 18th and 19th CPC National Congress. The results indicate that the weekly and monthly percentage change of both the SSE 50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate prior to all three Congresses would be extremely unlikely if both markets have moved in a manner consistent with their previous stochastic movements. It is highly likely that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congress. This study also makes conjectures about manipulators’ motivations behind the market manipulation, assuming the existence of market manipulations.

Seguindo as linhas de pesquisa que visam relacionar o impacto do relacionamento com os clientes aos resultados financeiros da empresa, o presente estudo procura avaliar o impacto do word-of-mouth (WOM) negativo no retorno da ação da empresa. O comportamento de falar mal da empresa por parte dos consumidores insatisfeitos pode destruir o valor dos market-based assets (customer equity e brand equity), comprometendo o desempenho das ações da companhia. Considerando a literatura existente, esta pesquisa busca identificar o impacto do WOM negativo no desempenho das ações das empresas no curto e no longo prazo. O primeiro estudo replica o modelo de Luo (2007) para identificar o impacto do WOM negativo nos retornos de curto prazo da ação das empresas. O segundo estudo busca verificar o impacto de longo prazo a partir da comparação do desempenho de portfólios compostos por ações de empresas em relação ao seu nível de reclamações. Os resultados do primeiro estudo convergiram em certa medida com os resultados apresentados por Luo (2007) para o setor bancário, apontando para um impacto negativo das reclamações no retorno da ação, mas foram mistos quando as empresas foram avaliadas individualmente. O segundo estudo demonstrou que o portfólio composto por ações de empresas menos reclamadas teve um retorno acumulado superior ao portfólio composto pelas ações mais reclamadas, além de apresentar um risco inferior ao risco de mercado. As implicações e limitações do estudo são discutidas e são sugeridas pesquisas futuras a partir deste estudo. / Following previous research that seek to integrate customer relationship impact to firm value, the present study focus to assess the impact of negative word-of-mouth (WOM) on stock returns. Dissatisfied customers that spread negative WOM about the company can ruin market-based assets (customer equity and brand equity) and hurt its performance. Based on present literature, this research seeks to identify the impact of negative WOM on stocks’ short and long term performances. The first study replicates Luo’s (2007) model to identify the short term impact of negative WOM on stock performance. The second aims to identify the long term impact of negative WOM by comparing the performance of portfolios created based on companies level of complaints. The first study accomplished to partially replicate the results found by Luo (2007) for banking industry, finding a negative impact of negative WOM on firm stock returns, although it found mixed results when the impact was assessed for each company individually. The second study demonstrates that a portfolio with less complained companies has a superior performance over a portfolio with more complained companies, while presenting a risk below market’s level. The results implications and limitations are discussed and further studies suggestions are made.