Orientadores: Luiz Koodi Hotta, Mauricio Enrique Zevallos Herencia / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matematica, Estatistica e Computação Cientifica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T01:07:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula_Julianade_M.pdf: 3543274 bytes, checksum: 420906ec38aaafeee50d465a68850a25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O conceito de contagio tem sido um dos mais discutidos na literatura de finanças internacionais a partir da ultima década do século XX. Embora não exista uma forte concordância em relação à sua definição, todos concordam em que ele esta relacionado ao fato de que crises econômicas iniciadas em um período podem propagarem-se por outros países através do aumento das conexões entre os países envolvidos. Neste sentido, um dos indicadores utilizados para verificar a existência de contágio e o aumento da correlação condicional em um período de crise com relação a períodos tranqüilos. Neste trabalho são estudadas algumas técnicas estatísticas para estimar a correlação condicional. São considerados estimativas através do método do alisamento exponencial, de modelos da família GARCH multivariada e utilizando a analise fatorial com modelos de volatilidade estocástica. Estas técnicas são empregadas para estudar o contagio que envolvam países latino-americanos e alguns países asiáticos, quais sejam, Brasil, México, Argentina, Malásia e Rússia ao longo do período de 05/09/1995 a 30/12/2004. Nota-se que existe unanimidade nos resultados com relação a existência ou não de contagio entre as técnicas para alguns países em determinados período de tempo, principalmente durante a crise asiática, mas existem períodos onde essas técnicas levam a conclusões diferentes / Abstract: The issue of contagion has been one of the most debated in the international finance literature in the last years. Although there is no general agreement regarding the definition of contagion, it is known that this issue is related to the fact that crisis started in one country tend to propagate to other countries. Therefore, a measure used as an indication of the presence of contagion is the growth of the conditional correlation during crisis periods. This dissertation review some of the statistical techniques used to estimate conditional correlation: the exponential smoothing method, multivariate GARCH type models and factor analysis with stochastic volatility model. These techniques are applied in order to study contagion among Latin American and some asian market countries, i.e. Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Malaysia and Russia covering the period from 05/09/1995 until 30/12/2004. In some crisis period, mainly during the Asian crisis there is a general agreement among all techniques, but there also cases where they lead to different conclusions / Mestrado / Mestre em Estatística

Este estudo preocupou-se em analisar os efeitos da globalização financeira sobre o mercado de capitais brasileiros. A globalização foi caracterizada através da emissão de ADRs, do inglês American Depositary Receipts, ou Recibos de Depósitos Americanos – instrumentos financeiros que possibilitam que uma empresa estrangeira liste suas ações em bolsas de valores domésticas e internacionais e obtenha o acesso ao mercado de capitais norte-americano. O mercado de ADRs em bolsas norte-americanas foi caracterizado em relação à sua contribuição ao processo de formação de portfólios internacionais e à sua eficiência informacional fraca. Os resultados obtidos indicaram uma importante contribuição dos ADRs para carteiras norte-americanas, com reduções de riscos e aumentos dos retornos. As respostas dos diversos testes estatísticos aplicados, também, permitiram concluir quanto à eficiência informacional fraca destes mercados. A contribuição decorrente da emissão dos ADRs para o mercado brasileiro foi analisada com ênfase no eventual aumento dos níveis de eficiência informacional e alocacional do mercado doméstico. Aplicações do teste de raiz unitária de Phillips-Peron não permitiram verificar contribuições ao aumento da eficiência informacional fraca dos preços de fechamento das ações. A análise das séries de cotações anteriores e posteriores ao evento de emissão de ADRs possibilita caracterizar o mercado como informacionalmente eficiente em ambos os períodos, não sendo possível verificar um aumento da eficiência alocacional após a emissão de ADRs. Por outro lado, a comparação e posterior análise do custo de capital próprio em instantes anteriores e posteriores ao lançamento de ADRs evidenciou a contribuição deste instrumento à eficiência alocacional do mercado brasileiro, com significativas reduções do custo de capital próprio, expresso através da variação negativa dos betas das ações. Outro ponto analisado no estudo referiu-se à análise da eficiência semi-forte do mercado de capitais doméstico, ilustrada através do evento relativo à emissão de ADRs. Os resultados indicaram a presença de retornos anormais maiores no período anterior ao evento, anormais significativos e positivos em torno do evento e negativos no período posterior – o que corrobora com as evidências de reduções nos níveis do custo de capital. / The present study was undertaken with the intent of analyzing the effects of the financial globalization upon the Brazilian stock market. Globalization was marked by the issuance of American Depositary Receipts, ADR’s, which are financial instruments that enable a foreign company to be listed twice in the domestic and international stock exhange as well as to access to the US stock market. ADR’s market in the US stock exchanges was characterized by its contribution to both the arrangement process of international portfolios and its weak informative efficiency. The results achieved pointed out a remarkable contribution made by the ADR’s to the US portfolios, by reducing risks and increasing yields. The responses to several statistical tests carried out also allow conclusions concerned with the weak informative efficiency of such markets to be taken. The contribution arising from ADR’s issuance to the Brazilian market was analyzed with an emphasis on the occasional increase in both information and allocation efficiency levels in the domestic market. Phillips-Peron’s Unitary background tests did not allow contributions to the increase in the share-closing prices’ weak informative efficiency to be checked out. The analysis of the exchange series before and after ADR’s issuance event enable the market to be regarded as informatively efficient in both of the periods, what causes a verification of an increase in the allocations’ efficiency to become impossible once the ADR’s are issued. On the other hand, the comparison as well as the posterior analysis of the own capital cost in moments before and after ADR’s release stressed the contribution of this instrument to the allocations’ efficiency in the Brazilian market, by presenting significant reductions of the own capital cost, expressed by the betas’negative ratio in shares. Another analyzed matter in the study relates to the analysis of the semi-strong efficiency of the domestic stock market, clearly shown by the ADR’s issuance event. The results pointed out the presence of abnormal bigger yields in the period preceding the event, significant and positive abnormal yields around the event time and negative yields in the posterior period – what confirms the evidences of reductions in capital cost levels.

No ensino de Administração de Empresas, o uso de Jogos de Empresas é uma prática relevante dado que existe a necessidade de um laboratório onde os alunos possam realizar experimentos com base na teoria ensinada, em um ambiente controlado, e com grande aderência com a realidade. Os Jogos de Empresas aplicados a cada área da administração, têm a vantagem de serem direcionados para as disciplinas, e dentre estas o Jogo de Bancos é um caso específico de Finanças e tem relevância para a área de Administração Financeira. Os Jogos de Empresas vêm se desenvolvendo dentro do contexto de Educação à Distância pela sua grande dependência tecnológica, muito embora sejam aplicados constantemente na forma presencial. O estudo levanta a seguinte hipótese: se for dada a oportunidade para que os alunos escolham as carteiras em que desejam atuar durante os exercícios, após uma fase inicial de ambientação, isso pode significar uma vantagem sobre a metodologia linear seqüencial adotada. Normalmente, as rodadas no Jogo de Bancos são aplicadas seqüencialmente cobrindo todos os tópicos, que por vezes são repetitivos. O objetivo do trabalho é testar sob forma controlada, em uma turma de graduação, como se desenvolve a aplicação das duas formas (\"linear seqüencial\" e \"com maior complexidade\") de aplicação do Jogo de Bancos, e compara os resultados apresentando um conjunto de observações que sugere uma abordagem não linear nos modelos de Jogos de Empresas. / In the education of Business administration, the use of Business Games is one excellent use since that there is the necessity of a laboratory where the pupils can carry through experiments on the basis of the taught theory, in a controlled environment, and with great tack with the reality. The Business Games applied to each area of the administration, have the advantage to be directed for the discipline, and amongst these the Banking Game is a specific case in Finance and has relevance for the area of Financial Administration. The Business Games are developing inside of the context of Distance Education for its great technological dependence, although is applied constantly in the actual form. The study raises the following hypothesis: if you give the pupils the chance that the pupils choose portfolios where they desire to act during the exercises, after an initial phase of adaptation, this can mean an advantage on the adopted sequential linear methodology. Normally, the rounds in the Banking Game are applied sequentially covering all the topics, that sometimes are repetitive. The objective of the work is to test under controlled way, in a graduation class, the two forms (\"linear sequential\" and \"with bigger complexity\") of the Banking Game, and compare the results presenting a set of comments that a not linear boarding in the models of Business Games suggests.

Orientador: José Dari Krein / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T15:32:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cunha_SebastiaoFerreirada_D.pdf: 1805411 bytes, checksum: c9e695addac49a4be63391ba3e049375 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: O objetivo central desta tese foi desvendar possíveis correlações entre a expansão do capital financeiro e as mudanças que redundaram na precarização das condições e relações de trabalho no Brasil na década de noventa. Observou-se que o capital financeiro fomenta os processos de fusão e de aquisição, colaborando para a concentração e centralização de capitais, que recrudesceram nestas últimas décadas em nível mundial. Como resultado, arranjos institucionais, a exemplo da holding, utilizam-se da reestruturação produtiva como forma de organizar a produção, seja internamente, na relação com fornecedores, ou entre os membros do grupo. Para ampliar a capacidade de extração de mais-valia e de enfrentar a concorrência, a utilização da flexibilização e da terceirização tornou-se elemento essencial. Assim, amplia-se a lucratividade operacional, indicador fartamente utilizado na estratégia da governança corporativa de acompanhar as possibilidades de ganhos no mercado financeiro. A terceirização, associada à empresa-rede, funciona como instrumento para viabilizar tanto a redução de custos quanto a flexibilidade numérica, ao mesmo tempo em que serve como colchão amortecedor dos riscos relacionados ao longo prazo do investimento. Esta realidade, associada a fatores políticos e econômicos, como o recrudescimento das políticas liberalizantes e a manutenção de uma agenda de reformas, também de cunho liberal, que redundaram em mudanças no comportamento do estadonação brasileiro, conduziram ao estreitamento do mercado de trabalho nacional e à precarização das condições e relações de trabalho. As pesquisas desenvolvidas permitem afirmar que os determinantes últimos destes movimentos estão associados a vários fatores e que é preciso levar em consideração o conflito permanente entre capital e trabalho / Abstract: The central purpose of this thesis was to uncover possible correlations between the expansion of finance capital and the changes that resulted in precarious conditions and labor relations in Brazil in the nineties. It was noted that financial capital fosters the fusion and acquisition, contributing to the concentration and centralization of capital, which in recent decades reinvigorated worldwide. As a result, institutional arrangements, such as the holding, use up the restructuring process as a way of organizing production, either internally or in relation to suppliers between group members. To enlarge the capacity of extraction of surplus value and to compete, and the use of the flexibility and the outsourcing has become essential to expand the operating profitability, an indicator widely used in the corporate governance strategy to monitor the potential for market gains financial. The outsourcing company network serves as a means for achieving both the reduction of cost as numerical flexibility, while also serving as mattress cushion risks related to long-term investment. This reality, coupled with political and economic factors, such as the resurgence of liberalizing policies and maintenance of a reform agenda, also liberal slant, which resulted in changes in the behavior of the Brazilian nation-state, led to the narrowing of the Brazilian labor market and the precarious conditions and labor relations. Surveys have revealed that developed the ultimate determining these movements are associated with several factors, but it is necessary to take into account the ongoing conflict between capital and labor / Doutorado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Doutor em Desenvolvimento Economico

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T05:46:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Souza_LeonardoFlauzinode_M.pdf: 1156212 bytes, checksum: 680a27401a91a86efbf66d613a7ad412 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A crise econômica de 2008 pode ser analisada pelo arcabouço das teorias keynesianas, em especial a partir das interpretações em torno da teoria da preferência pela liquidez. Esta foi elaborada primeiramente na Teoria Geral de Keynes, mas alcançou interpretações muito diversas nas obras de Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson e Minsky. As idéias expostas por estes autores são capazes de fornecer algumas explicações sobre as escolhas de ativos, em especial os relacionados aos mercados financeiros, e analisar os impactos dinâmicos das decisões de financiamento e alocação do capital. Entretanto, algumas inovações financeiras, como a securitização e os derivativos, que tiveram uma participação fundamental na constituição da crise, não são, de forma geral, exploradas por estes autores. Desta forma, o presente trabalho se propõe a explorar a teoria e as interpretações supracitadas, a fim de construir uma analise teórica da crise de 2008, abarcando as contribuições das inovações financeiras mencionadas. O contexto histórico em torno da crise de 2008, analisado pelo viés teórico keynesiano, é capaz de explicar como esta tomou a forma de uma das mais severas crises da história do capitalismo contemporâneo. Ao se iniciar como uma crise de crédito convencional e aos poucos tomar a forma de uma crise de liquidez e solvência, destaca-se o papel crucial da securitização de créditos e dos derivativos financeiros neste processo, alterando as escolhas de portfólio, as decisões de financiamento e a dinâmica das interações entre os balanços das diversas instituições financeiras da economia norte-americana e mundial / Abstract: The 2008 economic crisis can be analyzed by the framework of post-Keynesian theories, especially the interpretations around the liquidity preference theory. This one was first presented in Keynes' General Theory, but it reached very different interpretations in the work of Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson and Minsky. The ideas put forward by these authors can provide some explanations about the asset choices, particularly those related to financial markets, and analyze the dynamic impact of finance decisions and capital allocation. However, some financial innovations, such as securitization and derivatives, which had a seminal role in the constitution of the crisis, are not generally exploited by these authors. Thus, this study aims to explore the theory and the interpretations above, in order to build a theoretical analysis of the 2008 economic crisis, covering the contributions of the financial innovations mentioned. The historical context surrounding the 2008 economic crisis, analyzed by the bias of Keynesian theory, is able to explain how that took the form of one of the most severe crises in the history of contemporary capitalism. When it start as a conventional credit crisis and gradually take the form of a crisis of liquidity and solvency, it highlight the crucial role of securitization of loans and financial derivatives in this process, changing the portfolio choices, funding decisions and the dynamics of interactions between the balance sheets of many financial institutions in the U.S. economy and the world / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

This bachelor thesis aims to give an overview of the last ten years research on financial market forecasting with Artificial Intelligence techniques. Reviews of this topic have been made earlier, but it can behard to get a sense to what degree this type of research have been made and to what extent specific topicshave been covered. To answer this and also what research type and how these topics have changed overtime, a systematic mapping is performed with backward snowballing as literature search method. Theresults show that various hybrids and Artificial Neural Networks applied to the stock market are the mostcommon combinations and most research is new attempts at trying to predict future market movementsand values.

This collected volume gives a concise account of the most relevant scientific results of the COST Action IS1104 "The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy Evaluation", a four-year project supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). It is divided into three parts reflecting the different perspectives under which complex spatial economic systems have been studied: (i) the Macro perspective looks at the interactions among international or regional trading partners; (ii) the Meso perspective considers the functioning of (financial, labour) markets as social network structures; and, finally, (iii) the Micro perspective focuses on the strategic choices of single firms and households. This Volume points also at open issues to be addressed in future research.

This collected volume gives a concise account of the most relevant scientific results of the COST Action IS1104 "The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy evaluation", a four-year project supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). It is divided into three parts reflecting the different perspectives under which complex spatial economic systems have been studied: (i) the Macro perspective looks at the interactions among international or regional trading partners; (ii) the Meso perspective considers the functioning of (financial, labour) markets as social network structures; and, finally, (iii) the Micro perspective focuses on the strategic choices of single firms and households. This Volume points also at open issues to be addressed in future research.

Depuis les scandales financiers notamment d’Enron, Worldcom, Vivendi et Parmalat, la transparence est au cœur de tous les débats dès que la situation l'exige. Ainsi, tout le monde appelle à la transparence. Cette invocation est partagée par des politiciens, des avocats, des économistes, des financiers et l'opinion publique. Ainsi transparence souhaité par tous et qui correspond à la quantité d'informations diffusées par les entreprises, est devenu l'instrument privilégié de la régulation des marchés financiers. De nombreux pays occidentaux ont adopté des lois pour garantir la sécurité des marchés et des investisseurs. En France, il existe des lois comme la loi sur les Nouvelles Régulations Economiques (NRE) de 2001, la loi sur La Sécurité Financière (LSF) de 2003 et la loi Breton de 2005. Au niveau européen, il existe aussi des lois et les plus importantes sont la Directive Transparence de 2013, sur l'harmonisation des obligations de transparence concernant à l'information sur les émetteurs dont les valeurs mobilières sont admises à la négociation sur un marché réglementé, Directive concernant les Marchés d’Instruments Financiers (MiFID) 2014, la directive Abus de Marché (MAD) de 2014 et European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) de 2012. Cependant au sein des sociétés, on assiste à une instrumentalisation de l’information, orchestrant des « guerres » entre dirigeants et actionnaires. La transparence est ainsi détournée de son rôle premier pour satisfaire les intérêts égoïstes de ces personnes. Grâce à une manipulation de l’information dont il est dépositaire, le dirigeant peut mettre en place des stratégies dans le but de conserver son fauteuil. Les actionnaires dépositaires du contrôle de la société, peuvent opérer un contrôle purement économique, et n’agiront pas dans l’intérêt de la société mais dans leur intérêt patrimonial, en fonction d’une stratégie de création de valeur et d’investissement préalablement arrêtée. / Since financial scandals including Enron, Worldcom, Vivendi and Parmalat, transparency is at the heart of all discussions as soon as the situation requires. Thus, everyone calls for transparency. This invocation is shared by politicians, lawyers, economists, financiers and public opinion. Thus the transparency desired by all and which corresponds to the amount of information published by companies, became the privileged instrument of regulation of financial markets. Many Western countries have adopted laws to guarantee the safety of the markets and investors. In France, there are laws such as Act New Regulations Economic (NRE) of 2001, the Law on Security Finance (LSF) of 2003 and 2005 Breton law. A European level, there are also laws and the most important are the 2013 Transparency Directive, on harmonization of the transparency requirements for information about issuers whose securities are admitted to trading on a regulated market, Directive concerning the markets in Financial Instruments (MiFID) of 2014, Market Abuse Directive Abuse (MAD) of 2014 and 2012 European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). However within societies, there is a manipulation of information, orchestrating “wars” between officers and shareholders. Transparency is thus diverted from its role as first to satisfy the selfish interest of these persons. Through the manipulation of information which he is the depositary, the leader can implement policies ti keep his chair. The custodians of the control of the company shareholders, can operate a purely economic control, and will not act in the interest of society but in their heritage interest, based on a previously stopped creating value and investment strategy.

Cette thèse fait appel à la théorie des ondelettes pour estimer le paramètre de mémoire longue dans le cadre stationnaire et non stationnaire lors de la modélisation des séries financières, et pour l'estimation non paramétrique de la copule lors de l'examen de leurs interdépendances. L'avantage de la méthode des ondelettes comparée à l'analyse de Fourier est d'être parfaitement localisée dans le domaine temporel et celui des fréquences.Dans une première étape, nous nous sommes intéressés à la modélisation de la dynamique des séries de variations. À cette fin, nous proposons un modèle économétrique qui permet de tenir compte, en plus de la composante mémoire longue dans la moyenne, une dépendance de long terme dans la variance conditionnelle.D'une part, nous étudions les liens de causalité entre les séries obtenus par décomposition en ondelettes à chaque niveau de résolution. D'autre part, nous nous orientons vers la théorie de cointégration fractionnaire. À cet égard,nous estimons un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur dans lequel la vitesse d'ajustement à l'équilibre de long terme est plus lente que la vitesse associée à la cointégration linéaire. L'atout de cette approche est de détecter la présence d'une relation de long terme en plus des fluctuations de court terme et de mettre en œuvre des liens de causalité durables.Dans une deuxième étape, nous proposons une analyse des dépendances multivariées entre les risques financiers et leurs impacts sur les mesures de risques communément rencontrées en gestion des risques. Nous exposons une application de la théorie des copules à l'analyse de la structure des dépendances entre différentes séries financières. Les résultats empiriques obtenus montrent que la structure de dépendance devient accentuée lorsque les séries sont filtrées de l'effet mémoire. Ensuite, nous étudions l'effet du changement de la structure de dépendance dans la frontière d'efficience et dans les mesures du risque sur l'ensemble des portefeuilles optimaux en considérant le modèle moyenne-variance-copules et en élaborant une mesure du risque basée sur l'approche CVaR-copules. Les résultats empiriques prouvent que nous sommes loin des portefeuilles optimaux de Markowitz.Enfin, nous proposons un nouvel estimateur dans le cadre des ondelettes qui constitue une extension de celui de Shimotsu et Phillips (2005, 2010). / This thesis uses wavelet theory to estimate the long memory parameter in the stationary and non stationary framework when modeling financial time series, and non parametric estimation of the copula in the examination of their interdependencies. The advantage of the wavelet method compared to the Fourier analysis is to be fully localized in the time domain and that of the frequency. In a first step, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of series of variations. To this end, we propose an econometric model that takes into account, in addition to the long memory component in the mean, a long term dependence in the conditional variance. On the first hand, we study the causal links between the series obtained by wavelet decomposition at each level of resolution. On the second hand, we are moving towards the theory of fractional cointegration. In this regard, we consider a vector error correction model in which the speed of adjustment to the long run equilibrium is slower than the speed associated with the linear cointegration. The advantage of this approach is to detect the presence of a long term relationship in addition to short term fluctuations and implement long run causal links.In a second step, we deal a multivariate analysis of dependencies between risks and their impacts on financial measures of risk commonly used in risk management. We present an application of copula theory to analyze the structure of dependencies between different financial series. The empirical results show that the dependence structure becomes accentuated when the series are filtered from the memory effect. Next, we investigate the effect of changing the structure of dependence in the efficiency frontier and the risk measures on all optimal portfolios considering the mean-variance-copulas model and developing a risk measure based on the CVaR-copula approach. The empirical results show that we are far from optimal portfolios Markowitz . Finally, we propose a new estimator in the wavelet domain which is an extension of the estimator of the Shimotsu and Phillips (2005, 2010).