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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

[en] DECOMPOSING THE BRAZILIAN YIELD CURVE / [pt] DECOMPOSIÇÃO DA CURVA DE JUROS BRASILEIRA

BRENO MAURICIO MATTOS MARTINS 02 February 2021 (has links)
[pt] Entender a formação da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros é de suma importância para a autoridade monetária e demais agentes do mercado. No presente trabalho, replicamos o modelo proposto por Adrian, Crump e Moench (2013) para decompor a curva de juros brasileira e criar séries históricas para as expectativas das taxas de juros futuras, e para os prêmios de risco variantes no tempo. Este modelo gaussiano afim de 5 fatores latentes estima a curva de juros brasileira a partir de um método por mínimos quadrados ordinários em três etapas e obtém a precificação neutra ao risco. Por fim, apesar de a literatura empírica de macroeconomia e finanças reconhecer as limitações dos modelos gaussianos afins, nossas previsões fora da amostra apresentaram resultados ligeiramente superiores ao modelo de random walk. / [en] Understanding the term structure of interest rate has an important role as a tool for the monetary authority and other market players. In the present work, we replicate the model proposed by Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013) to decompose the Brazilian yield curve and create historical series for expectations of future interest rates, and for time-varying risk premiums. This five-factor Gaussian model estimates the Brazilian yield curve using a three-step ordinary least squares method and obtains riskneutral pricing. Finally, although the empirical macroeconomics and finance literature recognizes the limitations of Affine models, our out-of-sample estimations showed results slightly superior to the random walk model.

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