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Focusing on Seoul, the capital of Korea, this report will analyze the current demographic and housing trends by using census data from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), and then suggest recommendations for the direction of the future housing market of Korea based on the analyzed trends. Since Seoul is a center of the Korean housing markets and the housing market of Seoul accounts for the largest part of the national housing market, this report can support the future housing markets and policies both at national and local level. In the public sector it can be used as fundamental resources to establish long-term housing policies for the future. Moreover, in the private sector this report will be helpful for developers and contractors as an indicator for long-range housing business plans. Due to current demographic problems such as low birthrates and population aging, Korea cannot escape the demographic changes, and consequently these changes might affect the future housing market regarding housing supply and demand. / text

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

Housing units in China are sometimes sold with fittings (including internal finishes, interior decorations, fixtures, electrical appliances, etc.) and sometimes as bare units (without fittings). This study formulates hypotheses that explain these phenomena and test these hypotheses with empirical data from a sample of 1,704 development projects in China that were sold in the primary market between 2003 and 2007. Based on developers’ risk-aversive behavior, we hypothesize that they are less likely to sell new units with fittings in areas with low land prices. The value of fittings is the highest if the developers can accurately predict the tastes of potential buyers. The risk facing the former is that the fittings may not suit the latter. The risks are higher when the cost of installing the fittings constitutes a relatively high proportion of the market value of a housing unit, which is the case when land prices are relatively low. Since housing construction costs are similar across the different regions in China, land price is a major determinate of housing prices. Due to the problem of information asymmetry between developers and buyers, the former’s reputable or goodwill is important. The market would give a higher valuation for fittings provided by more reputable developers. In addition, potential buyers may worry that the fittings had been used to cover up defective or sub-standard work. Therefore, we hypothesize that reputable developers are more likely to sell housing units with fittings, especially for developments with a high construction cost to market value ratio. Demand and supply conditions play a role in determining a developer’s decision to sell units with fittings. When supply is relatively abundant, competition amongst developers is keen. Developers will tend to compete by providing fittings as sweeteners to attract buyers. The provision of fittings may also be a non-price competition strategy used by developers to differentiate their products from that of their competitors. Therefore, we hypothesize that developers are more likely to sell housing units with fittings when demand is weak or when supply is abundant. Finally, we conjectured that as people’s incomes increase, their time becomes more valuable. Therefore higher income households are less likely to buy bare units, since the costs of shopping for interior decoration contractors, finishes and fittings, etc. are higher for higher income households. We conjecture that developers tend to provide units with fittings in areas with higher average household income. With the exception of the last hypothesis, our empirical results supported all hypotheses. The lack of empirical evidence to support the last hypothesis could be due to a possible opposing force. This force arises from the possibility that higher income households have more sophisticated tastes that are more difficult to predict. Developers, being risk-averse, would tend to supply bare housing units in high income areas. The results in this study contribute to our understanding of developers’ behaviors in the real estate market, particularly in China. The results are also of practical relevance to home buyers, developers, investors, and policymakers. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The distance effect from the city centre on property price has long been considered as a major factor for a household’s decision on residential location choice given to understand that an acquisition of a home is the biggest single investment for a family. The decision is not simply a demand for the physical attribute pertaining to the building but also other housing and location attributes such as accessibility, size, tastes, neighborhood qualities and tradeoffs. The property prices in many countries have supported the saying of site value dependent on distance from the central business district (CBD). Major factors are transport costs and land prices. If people live closer to city centre, the savings from transport costs will be maximized. Difference in land value is also observed with distance from city centre and in the property market. Hence, household demand for property confronts tradeoffs between longer and more costly commutation and cheaper housing prices. This paper studies the distance effects or accessibility by including distance as variables in the hedonic model. Hedonic regressions are used to estimate the demands for the characteristics of a differentiated good such as the residential housing. In real estate study, we usually estimate housing price as a function of distance from the city centre. We expect to observe land prices decline with distance from the city centre which is referred to have a negative land price gradient. To assess the effects of the access attributes such as distance, commuting time and cost offer important inspiration in understanding the reasons for a household’s move and helps to indicate their final home choices. Generally speaking, higher income households may give higher value on access, married persons on shopping, retirees may choose to live closer to medical centre or their children and young families expecting children may choose to live near good schools and larger houses. Households who move for easier commute may indicate that accessibility is a priority. This paper examines the location choices of home owners, explores the major determinants in making a home owning decision, examines household’s priorities when choosing a specific location for dwelling and the tradeoffs involved. Empirical evidence relating the price gradient collected via the private residential property market in Hong Kong and a survey conducted by the author by questionnaires confirmed that the negative price gradient does exist and other explanatory variables like age, size, tastes and neighborhood qualities also affect the housing prices and tradeoffs. / published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

The role of liquidity in asset pricing model has attracted much attention in recent financial studies; however there is a paucity of literature with respect to liquidity risk and asset pricing in the direct housing market. The housing market is characterized by costly searching, inelastic supply and short-sale constraints. It is expected that the housing market should incur more significant illiquid effects, since it is much more illiquid than stock market. Motivated by this intuition, this thesis aims to explore 1) whether and to what extent liquidity can explain variations in over-time/crosssectional housing returns; and 2) whether liquidity factor plays a role in explaining the second moment (i.e. volatility) of housing price. We employ the panel regression and Fama-MacBeth two-stage procedure to investigate over-time and cross-sectional relations between liquidity and housing return. Liquidity asset pricing theory suggests that assets with lower degree of liquidity offer higher expected returns. Consistent with this prediction, the panel regression results suggest that housing return is a decreasing function of liquidity in previous year, while it is positively relative to contemporary liquidity shocks. For the cross-sectional asset pricing tests, housing estate specific betas are estimated using rolling time-series regressions of a three-factor asset pricing model. We investigate the proposition that housing estates with greater return sensitivity to market liquidity earns higher expected return. Using a disaggregate dataset of 55 popular housing estates, we find (1) both market liquidity beta and housing estate specific liquidity risk are significantly priced in the cross-sectional housing estate returns, implying that cross-sectional differences in estate premium partially represent the liquidity premium. (2) The market beta, sentiment beta and market liquidity beta explain 14.36% of variations in cross-sectional estate returns. The results are robust across different specifications. (3) Investors are less willing to bear liquidity risk during the down markets, which shed new light on the positive price-volume correlation. These findings complement the cross-sectional liquidity-return relationship in the financial literature. Measuring housing price volatility is fundamental to the study of the dynamics of housing price risk. We investigate the effects of liquidity on housing price volatility in different housing classes (classified by size of the housing unit according to the Rating and Valuation Department’s definitions). Housing price volatility is measured as the conditional variance of a GARCH model under the Adaptive Expectations framework. We reveal that volatility transmits from small housing units to large housing units, which indirectly supports the trade-up effect in previous literature. Besides, the starter and high-end housing classes are extraordinarily sensitive to negative and positive liquidity shocks respectively. Consistent with the friction search theory, we find that the pricing errors are alleviated as the trading volume increases, since the valuated price tends to be more accurate as more information arrives. Lastly, the variance decomposition and impulse response results imply that the positive liquidity shock accounts for a large proportion of variations in housing volatility. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The emergence of a new type of residential form always accompanies a change in the dominant political ideology. In China, the rise of the work-unit compound resulted from the domination of socialism. After the reform in 1978, capitalism gradually replaced socialist thoughts, and the change in ideology resulted in the boom of the gated community in urban areas. Current studies on the establishment of residential form are conducted in two directions. One is represented by typology and morphology, which focus on the physical structure of residential buildings, whereas the other direction is urban sociology, which considers the social aspects of the urban phenomenon. These two branches are well-developed in their own field, but the relationship between the physical forms and their social bases has not been systematically studied for a long time. The objective of this thesis is to fill the research gap on physical housing and urban social conditions, as well as to explore the relationship between changes in political ideology and the emergence of a residential form. To achieve the research objectives, this study will focus on the following questions: (1) What is the role of political ideology in the establishment of a residential form? and (2) How does the political influence the establishment of a certain residential form? The theoretical framework is based on a parallel literature review on both fields of typology and urban sociology, especially on the space production theory proposed by Marxist urban sociologists. The conceptual framework explains the role of the dominant political ideology in the establishment of a residential form based on the space production theory by Lefebvre. The analytical elements generated by the review of typology and morphology are integrated into the main conceptual framework. Qualitative research methods including case study, interview and documentary research has been used in this research. The leading argument of this research is that the dominant political ideology has a strong influence on the establishment of a residential form, which is a result of the manipulation of political power. Political power can influence the establishment of a residential form through the distribution of spatial resources and by guiding people’s preferences among spatial resources. Meanwhile, a residential form adopts the preferred social relation of the current political power, thus reinforcing the social structure. The work-unit compound in Socialist Beijing is a way for the Communist Party of China (CPC) to exhibit its power and control resource distribution. The gated community also represents the preference of the government because it helps to realize the privatization process. / published_or_final_version / Architecture / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

In Hong Kong, there are so many different types of community disputes relate to housing management. Sometimes the complaints could be as trivial as casing nuisance to the premises nearby or serious as breach of covenant or legislation. Since dispute may easily rise between owners in the multi-storey building, especially in the high density of living environment in Hong Kong, dispute resolution becomes a “day-to-day” work of housing managers. However, housing managers should not only aim to resolve the dispute effectively, but also to keep maintaining the long-term relationship between the residents and the housing managers themselves, where good and long-term relationship between the disputing parties is one of the important tasks for mediators. Thus, there is a prima facie interrelated relationship between mediation and housing management, and this relationship is relatively important. Through empirical study, literature review and in-depth interviews, this dissertation has evaluated the applicability of mediation concepts and skills to housing management by comparing their similarities and dissimilarities. The findings suggested that the objectives of dispute resolution for housing managers and mediators are similar, however, the ultimate goals, approaches or skills are not the same. During the study on the applicability of mediation concepts and skills to housing management, we found that some legal and practical constraints could apply most of the key mediation concepts. For example, the doctrine of confidentiality is found as inapplicable to housing management during the dispute resolution process. The mediation concepts are therefore considered not applicable to housing management. Nevertheless, the skills possessed by the mediators, especially the communication skills and negotiation skills are considered applicable to housing management in the course of dispute resolution. To achieve the best outcome of dispute resolution, housing managers should act as conciliator as what they are doing but the improvements on communication and negotiation skills are required. Therefore, recommendations are made to the management companies, academic institutions and trade institutes for provision of relevant trainings to the practitioners in order to resolve the disputes in the estates effectively, so that the goal of improving the living conditions in order to turn house into home can be achieved and the harmony between neighbourhoods can be maintained. / published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

This study specifies and estimates qualitative dependent variable and truncated variable models of mortgage demand using Family Expenditure Survey Data for 1986. The focus of the research is the better understanding of mortgage choices under conditions of rationing and subsequent to the financial deregulation of mortgage markets. Mortgage choices involve the decision to incur mortgage debt, the size of that debt and the choice of mortgage instrument. The links between these various mortgage choices, through the user cost of owner occupation, are also explored. The econometric methodology allows for the presence of rationing in the estimation of the discrete choice of entering owner occupation with mortgage debt and choosing its size. A double hurdle model of mortgage demand is specified and tested and compared with a Tobit where zero observations are assumed to reflect equilibrium rather than rationed decisions. The modelling is extended by estimating a model of the choice of mortgage instrument. This is done with a bivariate probit with sample selection. The empirical specifications are motivated by life cycle theory. The results indicate that rationing had an influence upon the discrete and continuous dimensions of mortgage choice. The double hurdle model appears a more appropriate specification than the Tobit. The choice of mortgage instrument also appears to be influenced by the presence of liquidity constraints and a concern for cash flow.

The thesis presents a critical analysis of the physical, social and cultural determinants of the traditional Chinese courtyard house. A number of factors which contributed to the stability of the form and spatial arrangement of the courtyard house in traditional China are identified. Early chapters examine the physical and broad social influences upon the form of the courtyard house and explain the different forms of spatial organisation. The discussion then centres on the importance of the Chinese family system and how it was reflected in the spatial arrangement within the house form. The symbol system related to Chinese houses is then considered, paying particular attention to its development from prehistoric China to the Han Dynasty and thereafter, including the concept of Ch'i and the cosmic framework of the Chinese people, which laid the basis for Yang Chai Theory. Ideal residential environments according to the two main Schools of Yang Chai Theory are then described. An example of how the various physical and socio-cultural factors are embodied in an actual courtyard house from the traditional period, taking into account the various elements of Yang Chai Theory, is then illustrated and analysed. The courtyard house reached its demise with the transformation of Chinese societies from agricultural to industrial, as social values and family structure were adjusted to suit the new life-styles. Nevertheless, Yang Chai Theory remains strongly embedded in Chinese culture. The thesis concludes with a discussion of how its components are taken into consideration even nowadays in the forming of residential environments.