This thesis analyses the influence of monetary policy on the general price level in Zimbabwe during periods of hyperinflation and dollarisation. The first part of the analysis covers the period January 2006 to July 2008 when the country experienced high inflation and ultimately hyperinflation. The second part covers the period 2009 to 2012, when the country adopted the multi-currency system and became fully dollarised. In terms of motivation, the study firstly sought to empirically examine the factors that led to hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, paying particular attention to the influence of monetary policy. Secondly, the thesis sought to determine the major factors that influenced price formation in a dollarised Zimbabwean economy; a completely new macro-economic environment. A significant development in this new macro-economic environment was the loss of monetary policy autonomy of the central bank, which also contributed to the relevance of the study. This thesis makes two contributions. The first contribution is the finding that hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was caused by expansionary monetary policy as a result of the activities of an unrestrained and unaccountable central bank. The second contribution was the empirical finding that in the fully dollarised economy inflation is largely determined by external factors. This implies that the domestic economy has no control over domestic inflation developments and as such, Zimbabwean authorities should formulate appropriate economic policies to respond to the impact of external shocks on domestic price formation when the need arises. The role of monetary policy in Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode is assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches with monthly data from January 2006 to July 2008. The impact of monetary policy on hyperinflation is captured by the coefficient of broad money supply and the interest rate. Results indicate that hyperinflation was caused by expansionary monetary policy, the exchange rate premium and inflation expectations for both the short and long term. Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode which peaked during the period 2007 to 2008 brings to the fore the importance of ensuring that the central bank is independent in executing its mandate of influencing the monetary policy process in a manner that ensures price stability. The ARDL and ECM approaches are also used to explore the dynamics of inflation in the dollarised Zimbabwean economy, with monthly data from January 2009 to December 2012. The main drivers of inflation under the multi-currency system were found to be the United States of America dollar/South African rand exchange rate, international oil prices, inflation expectations and the South African inflation rate. The findings contrast with the hyperinflationary era, where empirical studies have cited excessive money supply growth as the major driver of inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe. The results also suggest a higher exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, consistent with empirical literature which postulates that inflation in dollarised economies is largely explained by movements in the exchange rate of major trading partners and international prices. The policy implication from the analysis is the need for policy makers to aggressively promote policies that ensure increased productivity of the economy. An improvement in productivity would influence the relative prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and ultimately the general price level in the economy. The study also quantified the independence of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) using the Mathew (2006), “new index for institutional quality” and the results showed that the RBZ is not an independent central bank. The central bank is found to have a low index of central bank independence (CBI), against a high level of inflation. While this relationship does not imply causality it can be inferred that the lack of independence of the RBZ could have influenced inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe. Only a subordinated central bank can be compelled to engage in inflationary deficit financing and also fund quasi-fiscal activities. The provisions of the RBZ Act [Chapter 22:15] in their current form make the central bank an appendage of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and this has, to a large extent, resulted in conflict between the political goals of government and the central bank’s primary objective of achieving price stability. In the event that Zimbabwe reintroduces its own currency in future, the achievement of the primary goal of price stability by the central bank will only be realised if the apex bank is given more autonomy.

This paper examines Czech experience with inflation targeting. It tries to assess empirically character of deviations from inflation targets throughout the time. It assess situation also in an international context. Consequently it analyse ability of IT regime to anchor inflation expectations in context of CNB?s forecasting performance. Results imply that although deviations were quite frequent in the Czech Republic, their occurrence has not been a barrier for delivering lower inflation and its lower volatility. Notwithstanding, its volatility remains significantly above the range experienced in the EU and the EMU countries. Regarding the inflation expectations, monetary policy surprises tend to be smaller over time,signalising that IT regime is priced by the markets. Thus, credibility of the CNB, concerning anchoring of inflation expectations, seems to improve after introduction of IT regime. It also indicates that IT regime is a quite appropriate regime for the upcoming period of time, which will be end up by the entry in the EMU.

The degree work is focused on analysis of inflation with help of suitable econometric models. Inflation with it's forms and possibilities of measuring is described at the beginning of the paper. There is mentioned an importance of monitoring and analysing inflation in view of Czech national bank. Consequently there are described characteristics of time series, which are important from viewpoint of construction of econometric models. Next part of this paper is focused on characterization of econometrics models. At first there is vector autoregression model, in this connection there is discussed the essence of Granger causality and impulse reaction. There are also noticed both error correction model and vector error correction model. The empirical part of degree work involves the use of these models on selected macroeconomic time series of the Czech republic. The objective is to analyze the relationship between inflation and other individual macroeconomic quantities. There is established the optimal vector autoregressive model and the results of Granger causality and impulse reaction are interpretated. Both error correction model and vector error correction model examining cointegration are also applied.

Aim of this work is to answer question, if inflation targeting as a final goal of monetary policy, is possible in Islamic country with interest free financial system. Firs part of this work compares primer characteristics of Islamic financial system to conventional system of west countries. Second part focuses on possible macroeconomic model changes to correspond to Islamic system. Third part tests previous presumptions for inflation targeting. Final part proposes some measures to monetary policy performance.

The subject of the presented thesis is the relationship between monetary policy executed within inflation targeting, asset prices and financial stability in the broader sense in order to identify key problems of the current approach and draw some conclusions on how inflation targeting could possibly further evolve. Flexible inflation targeting remained the best available monetary policy framework, despite some revisions are apparently needed. It turned out, that changes in the financial sector have much greater impact on economic activity, than previously thought, and which the new approach will need to take into account.

This diploma thesis presents results of analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic employing the vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The responsible authority for monetary policy is Czech National Bank that has been using the inflation targeting regime to conduct its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation rate changes, i.e. the changes in repo rate represent a monetary tool for steering actual inflation rate towards the projected or "target" inflation rate. The linear correlation between 2 weeks repo rate and 1 month PRIBOR rate is confirmed. The transmission mechanism is examined within the VAR framework and the relationships between the 1 month PRIBOR rate, gross domestic product and inflation rate are studied. The VAR model including 1 lag is considered as the best performing model. The relationships among variables are analysed by related approaches -- Granger causality, impulse response functions and cointegration. The ability of model to create forecasts is assessed and the ex ante forecasts are produced for one-year horizon. The effects of alternative monetary policies are the subject of scenario analysis.

The appropriateness of inflation targeting in South Africa is examined. South Africa has adopted flexible inflation targeting, wherein considerations for other macroeconomic variables are prioritized. There is evidence of growing concern regarding South Africa’s monetary policy framework., emerging primarily from the trade union movement and the communist party. The concerns are borne out of the developmental challenges that are still facing South Africa, ranging from high unemployment, high levels of poverty and inequality, and low economic growth. In attempt to understand these concerns, the following key economic variables GDP, Manufacturing Data, Exchange Rate, and Repo Rate were investigated using both Eviews and Stat tool. To eliminate the impact of the recent global recession, the data that has been analyzed is up to 2008. The research compares two periods, namely; the pre inflation targeting period (1990 – 1999) and post inflation targeting period (2000 – 2008). The study has found that despite unemployment, inequality and economic growth having being sluggish over the years, these factors are not as a result of inflation targeting. Evidence indicates that inflation has been reduced and stabilized since the adoption of inflation targeting. This research argues that this methodology is important for South Africa’s economic development, as evident by increased output. This research concludes that the implementation of inflation targeting is appropriate for South Africa. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Inflationsmålets historia sträcker sig drygt 30 år tillbaka i tiden. En förutsägbar centralbank skapar möjligheter för marknadsaktörerna att sätta upp inflationsförväntningar i linje med det uppsatta målet som bidrar till att prisstegringstakten följer den önskade nivån. I dag har en stor majoritet av de mest ekonomiskt utvecklade länderna valt att införa ett inflationsmål som ett riktmärke för landets centralbank att rikta penningpolitiken mot. Samtidigt som inflationsnivåerna har sjunkit har också stora delar av länderna idag låga räntenivåer. Det innebär att centralbankens ammunition kan vara förbrukad ifall inflationen skulle behövas tryckas upp om inflationsnivån är under sitt mål. Syftet är att försöka förklara om inflationsmålet har haft någon betydelse avseende att minska inflationsvariansen samt om det även har haft en påverkan på BNP-gapet. För att undersöka inflationsmålets betydelse har vi undersökt flera ekonomiskt välutvecklade länder från inflationsmålets introduktion fram tills nu. Relevansen och legitimiteten i studien grundas på ett flertal tidigare studier. Studien ger en historisk överblick över inflationsnivån och dess stabilitet för länderna sedan 80-talet. Resultaten visar en stadig nedgång samt stabilisering på inflationen för samtliga länder. Däremot finner vi inga stöd för att det enbart skulle vara inflationsmålets förtjänst. Vi kan inte heller observera någon skillnad för BNP-gapet med eller utan inflationsmål. Även om vi inte kan hitta bevis på skillnader av att ha ett inflationsmål eller inte, så tror vi att det har haft en betydelse för de stabiliseringar som inflationen fått tack vare att aktörer lättare kan anpassa sina förväntningar mot målet. / The inflation target's history stretches back over 30 years. A predictable central bank creates opportunities for the market participants to set inflation expectations in line with what is set to be made at the price increase that follows the desired level. Today, a large majority of the most economically well-developed countries have chosen to introduce an inflation target as a benchmark for the country's central bank to target its monetary policy. At the same time as inflation levels have fallen, large proportion of the countries today also have low interest rates. This means that the central bank's ammunition can’t be used in case a rise of inflation is needed if the level of inflation is below its target. The purpose of the thesis is to explain whether the inflation target has had any significance in reducing the inflation variance and whether it has had an impact on the output-gap. To investigate the significance of the inflation target, we have examined several economically well-developed countries from the introduction of the inflation target until now. The relevance and legitimacy of the study is based on a number of previous studies in the field of inflation targeting. The study provides a historical overview of inflation levels and stability for countries since the 1980s. The results show a steady decline and stabilization of inflation for all countries. We find no support for it being solely the merit of the inflation target. Nor can we observe any difference for the GDP gap with or without inflation targets. Although we cannot find evidence of differences in having an inflation target or not, we believe that it has had an impact on the stabilizations that inflation has gained due to the fact that actors can more easily adjust their expectations to the target.

Karel Husník: Economic and Legal Position of the Czech National Bank in the Environment of Inflation and Deflation The aim of this thesis is to analyse the position of the Czech National Bank (CNB) from the legal and economic point of view and to analyse the monetary policy instruments which the central bank can use efficiently in inflation targeting. The primary criterium is macroeconomic environment of inflation, respectively deflation. The thesis newly divides the monetary policy instruments on conventional and non-conventional. The thesis uses multidisciplinary approach, it combines economic and legal point of view. The methodology of this thesis is analysis, description in historical projection and comparation. The laws of the Czech Republic and the documents of CNB, which are available online, are used. Author also worked with data from the Czech Statistical Office and with various economic studies and papers. The first chapter of the thesis analyses position of independent Czech National Bank in its constitutional and lawful position. The Law of the Czech National Bank and the Constitution of the Czech Republic defines the purpose of the CNB and her relationship with other components of state power. The CNB's monetary policy objective is set forth in Article 98 of the Constitution of the...

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