A presente dissertação discute o repasse cambial para o IPCA na economia brasileira durante o período compreendido entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. A ampla maioria dos trabalhos que versam sobre este tema aborda a redução do repasse após a adoção do regime de metas de inflação e/ou tem como único foco o impacto das desvalorizações cambiais no aumento dos índices de preços. Este trabalho, por outro lado, aborda de maneira explícita o papel da valorização do Real sobre a variação do IPCA no período recente, configurando o que denominamos de repasse cambial reverso. Para tanto, estimamos o repasse cambial por meio de um modelo de vetores auto-regressivos tanto para o referido período (1999-2007), quanto para outros dois recortes temporais: entre janeiro de 1999 e junho 2003 (amostra 1), período no qual se verifica uma tendência de desvalorização cambial e aumento de preços; e de julho de 2003 a dezembro de 2007 (amostra 2), período caracterizado pelo processo inverso, de valorização da taxa de câmbio e de cumprimento das metas de inflação na maioria dos anos. Os principais resultados foram: (i) no longo prazo os coeficientes de repasse cambial para o IPCA para as duas amostras foram superiores àqueles verificados para o período completo; e (ii) o repasse estimado para a amostra 2 foi bem elevado, ainda que inferior àquele obtido para a amostra 1. Estes resultados reforçam o argumento de que a taxa de câmbio desempenhou um papel proeminente no controle da inflação no período 2003-2007. / The present dissertation discusses the exchange rate pass-through to the headline inflation index, i.e. extensive national consumer price index (IPCA) in the Brazilian economy between January 1999 and December 2007. The vast majority of works dealing with this issue addresses the reduction of the pass-through after the adoption of the inflation targeting regime and / or focuses on the impact of exchange rate devaluation over the price index. This work, alternatively, discusses the role of the Brazilian currency appreciation in the recent period, resulting in what was labeled as reverse exchange rate pass-through. Thus, we have used a model of auto-regressive vectors to estimate the exchange rate pass-through for the full period (1999-2007), and for two other periods: between January 1999 and June 2003 (sample 1), during which there was a tendency for devaluation and increase in domestic prices, and from July 2003 to December 2007 (sample 2), that was a period characterized by the reverse process, that is exchange rate appreciation and in the most cases the achieving of the inflation targets. The main results were: (i) in the long run the exchange rate pass-through coefficients to IPCA of the two samples were higher than those observed for the full period, and (ii) the pass-through estimated for the sample 2 was very high, despite the fact that it was lower than that obtained for the sample 1. Those results reinforce the argument that the exchange rate played a prominent role in controlling inflation in the period 2003-2007.

This thesis investigates the role of the exchange rate and interest rate channels in the monetary transmission mechanism in Ukraine. The responses on the domes- tic as well as Russian economy shocks are estimated using the Vector Autoregression Model with block-exogeneity restriction. Monetary transmission did not prove to be strongly effective via neither of the estimated channels, although the exchange rate channel demonstrates the results which are more in line with the economic theory. In addition, the exchange rate channel shows the higher and more significant pass through. Further, we estimate the importance of the shocks of both home and for- eign economies for the domestic variables deviations using variance decomposition technique. The relevance of the Russian shocks in fluctuations of home variables is found out. The current estimation of the transmission mechanism is relevant due to the planned inflation targeting regime implementation in Ukraine which requires understanding of that processes in the economy. 1

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / South Africa is among a number of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework since 1990. This policy was adopted in the year 2000 in South Africa, and there have been a growing number of concerns about the effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. The main purpose of this study is to determine these effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. In this paper, the author used co-integration and error correction model to empirically examine the long-run and short-run dynamics of inflation targeting effects on economic growth. A final conclusion that inflation targeting does not have significant negative effects on economic growth is drawn from two interesting results. Firstly, there is an insignificant negative relationship between inflation targeting and economic growth. Secondly, the influence that inflation targeting has on the relationship between the lag of inflation and economic growth is also insignificant. These findings have important policy implications. Therefore, the critique that the SARB achieves relatively low inflation at the expense of low economic growth is a misconception. This led to the conclusion that the SARB should maintain its monetary policy framework of inflation targeting which has helped it to reduce inflation. Keywords: Inflation targeting, inflation, economic growth, error correction model, monetary policy.

<p>Av flera anledningar har i många länder mål för prisstabilitet ersatt den aktiva stabiliseringspolitiken där mål för nationalprodukt och sysselsättning stått i centrum. Centralbanker bedriver och har bedrivit penningpolitik för att uppnå prisstabilitet på olika sätt och det ärdenna fråga som står i fokus i denna uppsats. Detta aktualiseras ytterligare då den europeiska centralbanken (ECB) är i ett startskede vad det gäller att bedriva penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål. I detta perspektiv är det av intresse att studera Bundesbank närmare då denna under relativt lång tid bedrivit penningpolitik inriktad på prisstabilitet. För att belysa frågan om penningpolitik har, efter en teoretisk presentation, en empirisk studie av Bundesbank genomförts. Den studerade perioden sträcker sig från 1975 fram till 1996. Grunden för arbetet är följande frågeställningar: (1)Hur framgångsrik har Bundesbank varit med sin penningpolitik? (2)I vad mån har monetarismens läror satt sina spår i Bundesbanks penningpolitik? (3)Diskussion om ECB:s framtid med beaktande av de kunskaper studiet av Bundesbank ger. Bundesbank kan sägas ha bedrivit penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål relativt framgångsrikt. Vissa fakta talar för att det är Bundesbanks styrka som institution, där transparens och trovärdighet spelat en stor roll, som ligger bakom framgången. Monetarismen kan sägas ha lämnat ett avtryck i Bundesbanks penningpolitik i form av en viss överhängande prägel på den penningpolitiska designen. I praktiken är dock spåren från monetarismen vaga. Penningmängdens betydelse vid genomförandet av penningpolitiken kan ifrågasättas. Den kanske viktigaste lärdomen är nog hur Bundesbank fungerat som institution.</p>

Av flera anledningar har i många länder mål för prisstabilitet ersatt den aktiva stabiliseringspolitiken där mål för nationalprodukt och sysselsättning stått i centrum. Centralbanker bedriver och har bedrivit penningpolitik för att uppnå prisstabilitet på olika sätt och det ärdenna fråga som står i fokus i denna uppsats. Detta aktualiseras ytterligare då den europeiska centralbanken (ECB) är i ett startskede vad det gäller att bedriva penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål. I detta perspektiv är det av intresse att studera Bundesbank närmare då denna under relativt lång tid bedrivit penningpolitik inriktad på prisstabilitet. För att belysa frågan om penningpolitik har, efter en teoretisk presentation, en empirisk studie av Bundesbank genomförts. Den studerade perioden sträcker sig från 1975 fram till 1996. Grunden för arbetet är följande frågeställningar: (1)Hur framgångsrik har Bundesbank varit med sin penningpolitik? (2)I vad mån har monetarismens läror satt sina spår i Bundesbanks penningpolitik? (3)Diskussion om ECB:s framtid med beaktande av de kunskaper studiet av Bundesbank ger. Bundesbank kan sägas ha bedrivit penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål relativt framgångsrikt. Vissa fakta talar för att det är Bundesbanks styrka som institution, där transparens och trovärdighet spelat en stor roll, som ligger bakom framgången. Monetarismen kan sägas ha lämnat ett avtryck i Bundesbanks penningpolitik i form av en viss överhängande prägel på den penningpolitiska designen. I praktiken är dock spåren från monetarismen vaga. Penningmängdens betydelse vid genomförandet av penningpolitiken kan ifrågasättas. Den kanske viktigaste lärdomen är nog hur Bundesbank fungerat som institution.

The primary purpose of this study is to test the effects of inflation targeting in Turkey in terms of providing stability in the financial system by lowering the volatility in the Turkish stock market. Although there are many factors other than monetary policy which can affect stock market volatility, this study examines whether the volatility due to monetary policy can be reduced by increasing the accuracy of investors&rsquo / expectations about the central bank&rsquo / s future actions. In the first part, a &ldquo / Volatility Analysis&rdquo / is conducted for three sub-periods including the pre- and post-periods of the implementation of inflation targeting in order to see whether the volatility in the Istanbul Stock Exchange changed over time. Second, an &ldquo / Announcement Effect Analysis&rdquo / is carried out by using the central bank&rsquo / s interest rate and inflation rate announcement dates in order to evaluate how investors&rsquo / expectations react to a change in these rates during period from 2002 to 2007. Finally, a &ldquo / Combined Analysis&rdquo / is done in order to examine the relationship between the returns in the Turkish stock market and the surprise caused by the realized interest and inflation rates being different from their expected values. The empirical findings about the level of volatility indicate that there is a decline in volatility of the Istanbul Stock Exchange returns when volatility is compared on a pre- and post-policy period basis. Also, it is found that the announcement effect was present, meaning interest rate announcements generally came as a surprise to stock market participants. However, this announcement effect has a notably decreasing trend from 2002 to 2007 which is another evidence of the inflation targeting regime&rsquo / s success at reducing stock market volatility. Finally, the &ldquo / combined analysis&rdquo / shows that CBT&rsquo / s power to effect stock returns and to direct investors&rsquo / expectations increases from 2002 to 2007.

In this study, we aim to investigate the impact of inflation targeting (IT) and the recent global disinflation on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:1 for 51 industrial and emerging market (EM) countries. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel data estimation methods but also the recent Common Correlated Effects Pooled estimation procedure by Pesaran (2006) which allows estimating the impact of common global shocks such as global inflation. We also explore some other determinants of ERPT during the recent global disinflation period. Furthermore, we consider asymmetric effects of positive and negative output gaps as proxies for domestic demand conditions on ERPT for IT industrial and EM countries. Our results strongly suggest that, for the non-IT samples, ERPT is significantly higher in EM countries than industrial countries. For every country groups excluding Euro area countries, we find that ERPT declined substantially during the recent global disinflation period. The decline in the ERPT is, however, much higher in IT countries especially in EM ones. One striking result is the convergence of ERPT coefficients of EM countries to industrial IT countries with the adoption of IT. This supports the endogenous response of ERPT to monetary policy credibility and price stability. Consequently, a high ERPT, per se, may be interpreted as not a binding constraint for the adoption of IT as it tends to decline with the success of monetary policy regime. We also find that ERPT appears to be more sensitive to positive output gaps in IT industrial countries whilst it does not have such a response to positive or negative output gaps in IT emerging market countries.

No description available.

This PhD dissertation is made of four papers on central banking in inflation-targeting emerging economies. The first part of the dissertation is dedicated to two empirical works, based on the experiences of the 19 emerging economies that have adopted an inflation-targeting framework. I examine what exchange rate arrangement these economies are implementing together with the inflation targeting strategy, and what can explain their choice. ln the first chapter, I propose a new method to build up taxonomies of exchange-rate regimes. My approach is based on Gaussian mixture estimates. ln the second chapter, the choices for exchange-rate arrangements are explained though panel econometrics analysis. The second part of the dissertation is about the theory of optimal monetary policy. ln the first chapter, I propose an original dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study what should monetary policy do when food price hikes, in a small open emerging economy. ln the last chapter, a similar modeling approach is used to analysis how credit constraints impact monetary policy in financially venerable emerging economies.

Univ., Diss.--Uppsala, 2007.