Exchange rate risk, interest rate risk and oil price fluctuations are the most demonstrated risks in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries (Arouri and Nguyen, 2010). Research, however, in this area is still underdeveloped. The importance of this study is to contribute to this research gap. This research aims to show how these three risks affect firms' market values by examining 473 listed firms in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates for the period January 2007 to June 2012. The research further examines the determinants of these risks. The study uses the AR (1) EGARCH-M model. The results indicate that stock returns in GCC countries are influenced by the exchange rate risk, interest rate risk and oil price risk. However, the exposure was highest for exchange rate risk and lowest for interest rate risk. While the effects of these risks were mixed, overall, exchange rate risk and oil price risk showed more positive significance as compared to the interest rate risk that showed more negatively significant effect on firm values. The level of the effect of these risk also differed from country to country. However, firms in United Arab Emirates revealed the highest exposure to all the three risks while those in Saudi Arabia showed the least exposed to the three risks. Oman firms also showed high exposure to exchange rate and interest rate risks. The segregated results overall showed lower exposure of financial firms as compared to non-financial firms. However, the non-financial firms in Bahrain were more exposed to the risks than the financial firms. In Saudi Arabia, the financial firms revealed the least exposure to the risk suggesting effective risk management practices. In addition, foreign operations and firm size had a significant influence on the extent of the firms’ exposure to all the three risks. Leverage also influenced the level of exposure to interest rate risk. Profitability, growth and liquidity did not reveal a significant influence on the level of exposure. Further, increasing the risk does not lead to increased returns in most of the GCC countries. The risk-return parameters were largely negative. However, positive news increases return volatility more than negative news in most countries. Also, the current volatility of most GCC firms’ returns are time varying, are a function or past innovation and past volatility. The volatility of stock returns, which is affected by changes in the risk factors, could demonstrate the non-prioritisation of risk management by firms.

This thesis is based on three papers examining Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) financial markets. The member countries of the GCC are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have transitioned from developing to frontier markets over the past ten years, but there is considerable debate about whether GCC economies are efficient or affected by shocks in oil and other commodity markets. The first paper (chapter 2) considers GCC stock market returns and examines how they are affected by oil price shocks using a bivariate VAR-GARCH(1,1) approach. The conclusion of this essay is that GCC economies are more affected by shocks than are other countries considered for comparison purposes. The second paper (chapter 3) discusses how food prices are affected by oil price shocks, and it examines possible parameter shifts between food and oil that result from four recent events, including renewable fuel policies and the financial crisis. The third paper (chapter 4) uses an empirical approach to compare a least squares model and a non-linear Markov switching model to measure the effect of newspaper sentiment on stock market performance. The results indicate that all information is important to stock market investors and that non-linear models are better predictors of stock market performance then linear models when using data from newspaper articles. Chapter 5 offers some final conclusions and remarks.

[pt] Até meados dos anos 90 medidas para mensurar os riscos de mercado e crédito foram as maiores fontes de pesquisas acadêmicas em finanças, impulsionadas principalmente pela indústria financeira. Foi então que alguns eventos envolvendo fraudes e erros humanos causaram perdas catastróficas, inclusive a bancarrota de grandes instituições pelo mundo. Em decorrência destes eventos, surge um imenso e ainda pouco explorado campo de pesquisa para outro tipo de risco, o risco operacional. Entende-se que o Risco Operacional está associado à possíveis perdas como resultado de sistemas e/ou controles inadequados, falhas de gerenciamento e erros humanos. Em função de suas características, o risco operacional está presente em qualquer indústria, porém a maior parte de pesquisas acadêmicas e metodologias no âmbito prático estão voltadas para instituições financeiras. Após uma vasta pesquisa, não encontramos nenhuma referência bibliográfica semelhante à desenvolvida pelo setor bancário que pudesse elucidar o nível de maturidade de gestão de riscos operacionais em outros setores. Não encontramos sequer uma definição e classificação difundida dos riscos operacionais para demais indústrias. Desta forma, este trabalho explora os frameworks e metodologias desenvolvidas pela indústria financeira para avaliação e mensuração de riscos operacionais com objetivo de estender estes métodos para outras indústrias. Adicionalmente, aplicam-se os conceitos e metodologias levantados através de um estudo de caso em uma empresa no ramo de óleo e gás. / [en] Before 1990, market and credit risk measures were the major sources of academic research in finance field, motivated by finance industry. However as a consequence of recent financial scandals in the banking industry, involving fraud and human errors, which caused catastrophic losses and even bankruptcy of many institutions around the world, a new and unexplored kind of risk has started to be studied which is called the operational risk. It is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. Due to its risk characteristics, it is present in all kind of industry but most academic researches and methodologies are developed for financial institutions. After an extensive search, we didn’t find bibliographic references similar to those in banking sector which could elucidate the operational risk management level of maturity for other sectors. We could not even find a commom definition and classification of operational risks for other industries. Thus, this work intends to explore frameworks and methodologies, developed by financial industry for evaluation and measurement of operational risk, to see how this method can be extended for other industries. Additionally, we applied these concepts and methodologies for a sector of an oil and gas company.

The main subject of the thesis "The global financial crisis and its impact on the economy of Russia" is an investigation of the main course and causes of this financial crisis and an analysis of the impact of it on the economy of Russia from the perspective of the main macroeconomical indicators, social structure, real property market and funds market. Also some chapters of this thesis are devoted to the tasks for the leadership of this country for the purpose of stabilization of economy and prognosis of potencial further development of Russian economy in the coming years.

In dieser Arbeit wurden Angebotskurven für 22 bedeutende Ölförderländer ermittelt und anschließend zu globalen Angebotskurven aggregiert. Gemäß den ermittelten Angebotskurven sind nahezu alle gegenwärtig in der Förderphase befindlichen Ölprojekte in den Untersuchungsländern auch beim aktuellen Ölpreis von 35 bis 40 US-$ je Barrel unter Berücksichtigung der kurzfristigen Grenzkosten rentabel. Sollte der Ölpreis jedoch in den kommenden Jahren auf diesem Niveau verharren, wird es bis zum Jahr 2024 zu einem Angebotsengpass auf dem globalen Ölmarkt kommen, da zur Deckung der zukünftigen Nachfrage die Erschließung kostenintensiver, unkonventioneller Lagerstätten und von Lagerstätten in tiefen und sehr tiefen Gewässern notwendig ist. Damit es bis zum Jahr 2024 nicht zu einem solchen Angebotsengpass kommt, ist gemäß des ermittelten langfristigen Marktgleichgewichts ein Ölpreis von mindestens 80 (2014er) US-$ je Barrel notwendig.:1. Einleitung 2. Rohöl - Eine naturwissenschaftliche Einführung 3. Charakteristika von Rohölprojekten 4. Historie der Ölindustrie 5. Ökonomik von Rohölprojekten 6. Fallstudien zu den bedeutendsten Förderländern 7. Ermittlung regionaler und globaler Angebotskurven 8. Zusammenfassung