Orientador: Sinclair Mallet-Guy Guerra / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T09:30:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Melo_ConradoAugustusde_M.pdf: 9829134 bytes, checksum: fd6457ae9df47403660eda3893d89e8a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: No Brasil existe a expectativa de aumento da participação do gás natural na matriz energética. Contabilizar os investimentos necessários à viabilização desse aumento, a renda potencial gerada com a comercialização do gás natural e as emissões de 'C¿¿O IND. 2¿, permite o balizamento da tomada de decisões e do planejamento estratégico proporcionando o desenvolvimento sustentável. Utilizando a metodologia de sistemas dinâmicos procura-se nesse trabalho projetar o comportamento dessas variáveis indicando os futuros possíveis e os pontos chaves para direcionamento dessa expansão; analisa-se o caso brasileiro e o caso específico do Mato Grosso do Sul. Verifica que existe a necessidade de uma constante projeção da matriz energética, que a renda gerada pela comercialização é suficiente para a efetivação do acréscimo da infraestrutura de distribuição e que a redução das emissões de 'C¿O IND. 2¿ é viável através da substituição da lenha e do óleo combustível por gás natural / Abstract: In Brazil the expectation of increase of the participation natural gas in the matrix energy exists. To analyze the necessary investments to the viabilization of this increase, the potential income generated with the commercialization of the natural gas and the 'C¿¿O IND. 2¿ emissions, allows the measurement of the decisions taking and the strategical planning providing the sustainable development. Using the methodology of dynamic systems the study projects the behavior ofthese variable indicating the possible futures and the key points for aiming of this expansion. It analyzes the Brazilian case and the specific case of the "Mato Grosso do Sul". Verify the necessity of a constant projection of the matrix energy, that the income generated by the commercialization would be enough for the effectuation of the increase of the distribution infrastructure and that the 'C¿¿O IND. 2¿ emission could be less through replace between firewood and oil BPF by natural gas / Mestrado / Politica Energetica / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

The purpose of this paper is to examine two of the alternatives for transporting natural gas from the Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea area of the Northwest Territories in Canada and from Prudhoe Bay on the Alaska north slope. The first of these is a Mackenzie Valley pipeline proposed by Canadian Arctic Gas Pipeline Ltd to transport both Alaskan and Mackenzie Delta gas to southern markets. The other alternative analysed is the all American El Paso proposal to transport solely Prudhoe Bay gas to U.S. markets. In particular the cost-benefit analyses of these proposals as undertaken by the D.0.I.-Aerospace study and by Helliwell et al., are examined. The paper attempts to highlight differences, both methodological and other, between two studies of the economic returns in exploiting northern natural gas resourses. The Department of the Interior study was undertaken to examine two alternative methods of transporting Prudhoe Bay gas from the Alaskan north slope; a pipeline and liquification route (proposed by El Paso Natural Gas Co.), and transportation via an all pipeline route which would traverse Alaska, the Yukon Territory, and the Northwest Territories, and thence through southern Canada into the continental U.S.A. The major differences highlighted include different estimates of capital and operating costs, for the proposed Mackenzie Valley Pipeline, between D.O.I, and CAGPL. Also evaluated are the different lifetime assumptions, estimates for the supply price of capital and the discount rate, and the treatment of Canadian taxes. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

El acceso universal al gas natural es ahora una política de Estado impostergable porque se trata una herramienta más para la lucha contra la pobreza y el cuidado del medio ambiente. Esta política de Estado se ha visto reflejada en la emisión de una normativa específica que está orientada a promover la masificación del gas natural al interior del país, con un criterio claro de inclusión social. En la actualidad ya están en marcha proyectos de inversión que tienen como objetivo impulsar este proceso de masificación, tales como las concesiones de transporte y distribución de gas natural comprimido y licuefactado en diversas provincias. No obstante, el alcance de estas concesiones es limitado, lo que implica que las poblaciones ubicadas fuera de su ámbito de acción se verán impedidas de acceder a los beneficios del gas natural en el corto y mediano plazo. Partiendo de estas premisas, el presente trabajo de investigación analizará si es competitivo suministrar gas natural licuefactado en zonas aisladas del sur-oeste del Perú, donde el concesionario de transporte y distribución de gas natural licuefactado no tiene previsto desarrollar infraestructura.

El procesamiento del gas natural para la extracción del etano e hidrocarburos superiores es una actividad de gran impor-tancia dentro del sistema gasífero de un país. El etano constituye la materia prima fundamental de la denominada petroquímica base gas, mientras que propano, butanos, pen-tanos y superiores, se comercializan fundamentalmente como combustibles. En el caso de Argentina, la actividad de proce-samiento forma parte del sistema de transporte y distribución de gas natural, el cual se encuentra regulado para asegurar una adecuada provisión de este insumo a los consumidores industriales y domiciliarios. Por este motivo suelen existir res-tricciones sobre la cantidad de hidrocarburo que puede extraerse del gas disponible. Por otra parte, el negocio de ex-tracción se encuentra sujeto a la incertidumbre inherente a los mercados en lo que respecta a demanda y precios de los productos del procesamiento así como a la variabilidad de los gasoductos en cuanto a calidad y cantidad de gas a proce-sar. Como consecuencia, esta actividad se encuentra sometida a una gran variabilidad a lo largo del año, lo que dic-ta la necesidad de ajustar en forma permanente la operación de los complejos de extracción para optimizar el negocio.Dada la complejidad estructural de las plantas de extracción moder-nas, esta tarea puede verse beneficiada por la disponibilidad de herramientas de asistencia en la toma de decisiones basa-das en modelos matemáticos de optimización. En esta tesis se presenta un modelo matemático para optimizar la operación del complejo de extracción de hidrocarburos instalado en la localidad de Gral. Daniel Cerri próxima a la ciudad de Bahía Blanca. El modelo no-lineal mixto-entero propuesto contempla las múltiples opciones de mezclado disponibles en el complejo así como la posibilidad de operar o pasar a reserva sus cinco plantas de extracción de hidrocarburos. Dichas plantas po-seen diferentes tecnologías de extracción y por lo tanto rendi-mientos distintos en función de sus respectivas variables ope-rativas. Los resultados del modelo se comparan contra datos históricos del proceso para cinco escenarios operativos fre-cuentes a lo largo del año, con el objeto de cuantificar los potenciales beneficios de su aplicación sistemática. Se presen-tan además diversas aplicaciones con el objeto de ilustrar su uso para asistir en la toma de decisiones tanto a escala ope-rativa, como táctica y estratégica. / The processing of the natural gas for the extraction of ethane and heavier hydrocarbons is of fundamental importance within the gas system of a country. Ethane is the basic raw material of the gas based petrochemical industry, while propane, buta-nes, pentanes and heavier compounds are mainly commer-cialized as fuels. In the case of Argentina, the processing ac-tivity is a part of the natural gas transport and distribution system, which is regulated by law in order to ensure an adequate provision for home and industrial use. For this rea-son, constraints on the amount of hydrocarbons that can be extracted from the available gas frequently arise. On the other hand, the extraction business is subject to market inhe-rent uncertainty regarding demands and prices of the pro-ducts, as well as to the variability of the pipelines regarding quality and availability of raw material. As a consequence,this activity faces a high variability along the year, which dictates the necessity of tuning the operation of the extraction complexes almost permanently in order to optimize the busi-ness. Due to the structural complexity of the modern extrac-tion plants, this task could benefit from the availability of deci-sion making support tools based on mathematical optimization models. In this thesis a mathematical model is presented aimed to optimize the operation of the hydrocarbon extraction complex located in Gral. Daniel Cerri close to Bahía Blanca city. The proposed mixed-integer-nonlinear model considers all the available gas mixing options in the process as well as the possibility of turning-on and shutting-down its five hydrocar-bon extraction plants. Such plants possess different technolo-gies and therefore different extraction efficiencies as func-tions of their respective operative variables. Model results are compared against historical process data for five frequent operating scenarios along the year in order to quantify the potential benefits of its systematic application. Several appli-cations are also proposed in order to illustrate its use in decision making at operational, tactical and strategic levels.

Sea level rise (SLR) has become a serious threat for coastal communities in recent years. Many communities, including South Florida, are already having the security of their daily lives impacted as climate change causes SLR and other environmental impacts to worsen. This study reviews the Miami-Dade Sea Level Rise Task Force Report to determine how this coastal county government views SLR as a threat. Using mixed content analysis to analyze the report qualitatively and quantitatively, the Task Force's recommendations are categorized based on their focus on security, infrastructure, economics, and the environment. One finds the concerns of the people to maintain their property and infrastructure, as well as their access to water and other basic needs, as insurance costs spike and funding becomes more difficult to obtain. Policies will have to be revised using updated scientific studies, modeling, and mapping to mitigate against the worse-case scenarios.

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This thesis covers the development of the natural numbers by means of the peano postulates.