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This study develops a method for estimating confidence intervals surrounding futures based forecasts of natural gas prices. The method utilizes the Barone-Adesi and Whaley model for option valuation to "back-out" the market's assessment of the annualized standard deviation of natural gas futures prices. The various implied standard deviations are then weighted and combined to form a single weighted implied standard deviation following the procedures outlined by Chiras and Manaster. This option implied weighted standard deviation is then tested against the more traditional "historical" measure of the standard deviation. The paper then develops the procedure to transform the weighted standard deviation and futures price into a price range at the option expiration date. The accuracy of this forecast is then tested against 15 and 30 day average forecasts. / Master of Arts

Over the past decade, public concerns have grown over America's energy use and production. Pushes towards more environmentally friendly and sustainable sources of energy have moved out of fringe politics and into mainstream political discourse. Advances in drilling technology and increased exploration of shale gas plays have made natural gas more available and accessible. The abundance of natural gas has led to its growing role in the U.S. electric production and has provided the United States with an opportunity to become a net exporter of energy in the near future. The availability of natural gas, coupled with uncertainty in the liquid petroleum market, has prompted stakeholders to search out additional uses for this low-cost energy source. The result has been a large-scale effort to encourage the use of natural gas-based fuel within the trucking industry. Commercial long-haul trucks and truck fleets are a v prime target of these efforts. The number of natural gas fueling stations around the country is increasing, and there are growing investments in new technologies and government incentives to retrofit and upgrade the nation's trucking fleet, making the logistics of a large-scale switch from a liquid petroleum-based fuel to natural gas much less complicated. Through a detailed analysis of natural gas trucks, fueling infrastructure, and case studies this report seeks to reach conclusions over the role natural gas vehicles (NGVs) should play in the future U.S. transportation system. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to natural gas. Chapter 2 discusses the current state of natural gas in the United States. Chapter 3 provides an overview of natural gas vehicle and infrastructure technology. Chapter 4 discusses marketplace NGV adoption factors. Chapter 5 deals with benefits of adoption and policy options for expansion of NGVs. Chapter 6 provides an overview of current federal, state and local policies and incentives. Chapter 7 discusses barriers and opportunities for NGV adoption. The report synthesizes and concludes that natural gas trucking offers the U.S. a cheaper alternative to liquid petroleum while promoting environmental sustainability and economic prosperity. / text

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Typescript (photocopy). / Digitized by Kansas Correctional Industries

Call number: LD2668 .T4 1959 A34

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Thesis advisor: Philip E. Strahan / The first essay of this dissertation measures the real effect of increases in local deposit supply on local economic outcomes. To identify this effect, I use exogenous variation in local deposit supply from oil and natural gas shale discoveries. A change in deposit supply should have its largest effect on areas where credit supply frictions are the strongest. I find that the effect is strongest in areas dominated by small banks. The second essay analyzes the investment policies of public and private natural gas firms, and is joint work with Jérôme Taillard. We find that privately held firms are 60% less responsive to natural gas price changes than publicly traded firms. Additionally, we find that private firms do not respond to new shale investment opportunities, whereas public firms do. We believe these results are consistent with private firms having a higher cost of external capital. The third essay empirically tests whether firms increase risk taking activity when they are close to distress due to the risk taking incentives of equity-holders. I find that firms actually reduce risk taking when they are close to distress, and in the years prior to bankruptcy. This evidence suggests that risk reduction incentives may be more important for the average firm as it gets close to distress. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.