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Sub-National Borrowing, Is It Really a Danger?Vulovic, Violeta 14 December 2011 (has links)
Due to widespread decentralization of spending responsibilities, increasing revenue power and borrowing capacity of sub-national governments, sub-national borrowing has become an increasingly important source of sub-national finance. While there are arguments for and against giving sub-national authorities room for raising their own financial resources, appropriate sub-national borrowing regulatory framework can reduce chances of defaults and fiscal crises.
This dissertation investigates the effectiveness of sub-national borrowing regulations in maintaining fiscal sustainability. More precisely, it tests the hypothesis that is sub-national borrowing is restricted to financing capital investments (the “golden rule”), and if the sub-national governments are provided with some measure of revenue autonomy, then the sub-national borrowing should not endanger fiscal sustainability. Based on the sub-national government panel data for 57 countries between 1990 and 2008 and applying the system GMM estimator and the survival analysis, this dissertation provides support for this hypothesis.
The results suggest that the “golden rule” is effective in maintaining fiscal sustainability at both general and sub-national government level. Sub-national tax autonomy, however, seems to have positive but very small marginal effect on fiscal sustainability. The obtained results also emphasize the risk of the soft budget constraint and the moral hazard. Significant central government financing may give encouraging signs to the sub-national governments to over-borrow and to expect being bailed out by the central government. The results obtained in this dissertation imply following policy recommendations. First, sub-national government borrowing does not have to endanger fiscal sustainability if the borrowing regulation framework is well designed and according to specific country circumstances. Second, reducing fiscal dependence on central government financing reduces the risk of moral hazard and improves the effectiveness of borrowing control in maintaining fiscal balance at the sustainable level.
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Trade openness and economic growth in a set of Scandinavian countries : A study on trade openness and the impact it has on economic growth for Sweden and Norway and DenmarkMuzaffer Mustafa, Mohammed January 2016 (has links)
Significant growth rates are in many times associated with countries embracing the ongoing globalization and openness to the international market of exchanging goods and services as well as ideas and technologies. Many researchers believe that participating in an international economy is a primary source of growth. The question is how strong the relationship between openness and growth is and has interested many researchers. This paper aims to investigate the effects of trade openness on economic growth in the long run and begins from Adam smith`s discussion on absolute advantage and specialization to discussions on trade organizations and policies. This study explores the relationship between trade openness and economic growth using a sample of 3 developed countries over the period (1970 – 2006) in a panel data analysis. The fixed effects model analysis indicates that trade openness has a positive and significant effect on economic growth.
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Essays in panel data and financial econometricsPakel, Cavit January 2012 (has links)
This thesis is concerned with volatility estimation using financial panels and bias-reduction in non-linear dynamic panels in the presence of dependence. Traditional GARCH-type volatility models require large time-series for accurate estimation. This makes it impossible to analyse some interesting datasets which do not have a large enough history of observations. This study contributes to the literature by introducing the GARCH Panel model, which exploits both time-series and cross-section information, in order to make up for this lack of time-series variation. It is shown that this approach leads to gains both in- and out-of-sample, but suffers from the well-known incidental parameter issue and therefore, cannot deal with short data either. As a response, a bias-correction approach valid for a general variety of models beyond GARCH is proposed. This extends the analytical bias-reduction literature to cross-section dependence and is a theoretical contribution to the panel data literature. In the final chapter, these two contributions are combined in order to develop a new approach to volatility estimation in short panels. Simulation analysis reveals that this approach is capable of removing a substantial portion of the bias even when only 150-200 observations are available. This is in stark contrast with the standard methods which require 1,000-1,500 observations for accurate estimation. This approach is used to model monthly hedge fund volatility, which is another novel contribution, as it has hitherto been impossible to analyse hedge fund volatility, due to their typically short histories. The analysis reveals that hedge funds exhibit variation in their volatility characteristics both across and within investment strategies. Moreover, the sample distributions of fund volatilities are asymmetric, have large right tails and react to major economic events such as the recent credit crunch episode.
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Education and Crime: A Panel Data Analysis of the Czech RepublicLin, Hsin-I January 2015 (has links)
This thesis focuses on the relationship between crime and education, as well as macroeconomic and demographic factors such as police efficiency, GDP per capita, employment rate, population density, age and sexual composition of the society. We use the data of fourteen regions of the Czech Republic from 2000 to 2012. First, we apply the fixed-effect model in the data analysis, and further we use GMM for the estimation of new dynamic panel dataset. In addition, taking the possible time effects into account, we also add the time dummies in both regression models. Our finding finds the unexpectedly positive effects of secondary education with A-level exam, GDP per capita and the proportion of population aged 30-59 years old on most of criminal offences. On the other hand, the male ratio in population and the clearance rate are found to influence crimes negatively. Higher education and employment rate are also found to be related negatively with economic crimes. JEL Classification A14, E69, I21, I23, I25, I29, J19, R19 Keywords education, crime, employment, GDP, gender ratio, age, the Czech Republic, panel data, fixed-effect, GMM Author's e-mail cindy1114@livemail.tw Supervisor's e-mail brizova.ies@seznam.cz
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Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability in EuropeGorobetchi, Marina January 2015 (has links)
The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...
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Co ovlyvňuje spotřebitelskou důvěru? / What drives consumer confidence?Mičáková, Miroslava January 2015 (has links)
No description available.
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Determinants of Financial DevelopmentBzhalava, Eri January 2014 (has links)
Determinants of financial development Abstract The paper studies effects of country level determinants on the rate of financial development and, in particular, assesses the empirical question whether democracy and political freedom can enhance financial development, as measured by Bank Private Credit to GDP and Liquid Liabilities to GDP. Using Fixed Effects estimation techniques and a panel data for a list of 39 countries over the period 1990 to 2011, we provide evidence that suggests positive link between political openness and financial development. The empirical evidence also confirms financial openness and real per capita income to be positively correlated to financial deepening and in contrast, we find that size of financial sector does not spur the rate of financial development.
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Gravity model for Czech Republic - Test of the effects of indirect trade / Gravity model for Czech Republic - Test of the effects of indirect tradeWlazel, Marek January 2014 (has links)
The aim of this thesis is to incorporate the effects of the indirect trade into the gravity model for Czech Republic. Using data from the recently released OECD-WTO TiVA database, a panel of 56 countries in 5 years between 1995 and 2009 is constructed. The traditional approach of estimating the log- linear form of the equation is questioned and in line with current academic research, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method is applied. The empirical analysis does not reveal any unambiguous effect of adjusting the gross exports for their foreign content; it rather confirms that Czech ex- ports are significantly driven by the demand for German exports and finds that they are the higher the greater is the share of services value added. Furthermore, it is found that the destination of Czech exports is not signif- icantly determined by target country's participation in global value chains. JEL Classification C13, C23, C67, F14, F60 Keywords gravity model, indirect trade, trade in value added, Czech Republic, Poisson regression, panel data Author's e-mail marek.wlazel@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vsemerak@yahoo.com
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Odhad gravitační rovnice na panelových datech. Je používání logaritmické transformace vhodným postupem? / Gravity model estimation using panel data - is logarithmic transformation advisable?Bobková, Božena January 2012 (has links)
This thesis investigates the question if the estimation of gravity model of in- ternational trade based on the logarithmic transformation of the model is ad- visable when panel data are employed for the estimation. We have derived theoretically that in the presence of heteroskedasticity the logarithmic trans- formation causes inconsistency of the estimated coefficients. According to the literature, we have recommended rather the Poisson pseudo maximum likeli- hood estimation technique for the empirical research of the gravity model. We have also provided an empirical analysis of Czech and German panel data sets based on the comparison of the performance of traditional and Poisson estima- tion approaches. This analysis confirrms Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method as a more proper method for estimating the coefficients of the gravity equation.
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The Determinants of Inflation Differentials across Central and Eastern European CountriesGurbulea, Mihaela January 2015 (has links)
The thesis aims at identifying the reasons behind the heterogeneous inflation performance of countries across Central and Eastern Europe. The impact of a large number of variables is being assessed in a dynamic panel data model covering 20 countries over the period 2003-2013. The empirical results suggest that cross-country differences in inflation are attributed to the structure of the economy, to the capital deepening effects and openness. Along with the structural factors, cyclical positions also prove to be of particular importance in explaining inflation across the region, since during the last decade most of the Central and Eastern European countries have experienced fast GDP growth, a credit boom and increased domestic demand that in turn fueled inflation.
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