This study examines the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth in developing countries. Based on deduction from the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, the study tests the following hypotheses regarding the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth. First, fiscal deficits have significant positive or negative impact on economic growth in developing countries. Second, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the size of deficits as a percentage of GDP - that is, there is a non-linear relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth. Third, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the ways in which deficits are financed. Fourth, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on what deficit financing is used for. The study also examines whether there are any significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries. The study uses panel data for thirty-one developing countries covering the period 1972- 2001, which is analysed based on the econometric estimation of a dynamic growth model using the Arellano and Bond (1991) generalised method of moments (GMM) technique. Overall, the results suggest the following. First, fiscal deficits per se have no any significant positive or negative impact on economic growth. Second, by contrast, when the deficit is substituted by domestic and foreign financing, we find that both domestic and foreign financing of fiscal deficits exerts a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth with a lag. Third, we find that both categories of economic classification of government expenditure, namely, capital and current expenditure, have no significant impact on economic growth. When government expenditure is disaggregated on the basis of a functional classification, the results suggest that spending on education, defence and economic services have positive but insignificant impact on growth, while spending on health and general public services have positive and significant impact. Fourth, in terms of regional differences with regard to the estimated relationships, the study finds that, while there are some regional differences between the four different regions represented in our sample of thirty-one developing countries - namely, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa - these differences are not statistically significant. On the basis of these findings, the study concludes that fiscal deficits per se are not necessarily good or bad for economic growth in developing countries; how the deficits are financed and what they are used for matters. In addition, the study concludes that there are no statistically significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries.

Este estudo tem como objetivo identificar evidências empíricas sobre os determinantes do desempenho dos postos de combustíveis urbanos brasileiros, em termos do volume mensal de vendas de gasolina comum. Para tanto, com base numa amostra de 372 postos de combustíveis, operando sob a bandeira da Petrobras Distribuidora, para os quais foram amostradas observações sobre o volume mensal de gasolina comum comercializado e seu respectivo preço de venda, o preço de venda do álcool combustível, a renda do consumidor e o estoque da frota de veículos leves, compondo um painel completo de dados, para o período compreendido entre janeiro de 2010 a dezembro de 2012. Assim, utilizando as ferramentas econométricas para dados em painel, concluiu-se que a abordagem dos efeitos fixos é a que melhor se adequa aos dados da amostra, evidenciando que há influência de efeitos específicos (heterogeneidade não observável) inerentes a cada unidade de corte transversal sobre o respectivo volume de vendas de gasolina. Além disso, foram estimadas as elasticidades da demanda em relação ao preço, à renda e ao estoque da frota de veículos, bem como a elasticidade-preço cruzada em relação aoálcool combustível.A demanda por gasolina comum mostrou-se elástica com relação ao seu preço. Foi confirmado o corretoemprego do etanol como um substituto imperfeito da gasolina. Constatou-se que, o estoque da frota de veículos tende a ter influênciasignificativa e positiva sobre a demanda de gasolina. Entretanto, contrariando a teoria econômica, foi rejeitada a hipótese de influência da variável renda sobre as vendas de gasolina comum. / This study aims to identify empirical evidence on the determinants of the performance of the Brazilian urban fuel stations, in terms of monthly sales of gasoline. Therefore, based on a sample of 372 gas stations operating under the banner of PetrobrasDistribuidora, for which were sampled observations on the monthly volume of traded gasoline and its respective saleprice, the sale price of ethanol, consumer income and the stock of the light vehicle fleet, composing a complete panel data for the period from January 2010 to December 2012. Thus, using econometric tools to panel data, it was concluded that the approach the fixed effects is the best suited to the sample data, evidencing the influence of specific effects (unobservable heterogeneity) inherent in every cross-section unit on the respective volume of gas sales. Moreover, the demand elasticities were estimated in relation to price, income and stock of the vehicle fleet, as well as the cross-price elasticity in relation to ethanol. Demand for regular gasoline was shown to be elastic with respect to its price. It was confirmed the use of ethanol as an imperfect substitute for gasoline. It was found that the stock of vehicle fleet tends to have significant and positive influence on the demand for gasoline. However, contrary to economic theory, the hypothesis of the influence of variable income on sales of gasoline was rejected.

Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo estimar os efeitos dos Programas Condicionais de Transferência de Renda (PCTR) no Brasil sobre a oferta de trabalho dos jovens inseridos na situação denominada \"nem-nem\", ou seja, aqueles que não estudam não trabalham e nem estão em busca de emprego. Tendo como base o trabalho de Foguel e Barros (2010) propõe-se verificar se os programas sociais produzem o efeito indesejável de incentivar jovens moradores de domicílios beneficiários a ofertarem menos trabalho, a partir da estimação de modelos de dados em painel aplicados aos microdados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE). Foram construídos dois painéis formados pelo mesmo conjunto de municípios durante dois períodos: de 2001 a 2009 e de 2011 a 2014 e com o desenvolvimento deste projeto foi possível identificar o perfil dos jovens nem-nem no Brasil, os fatores associados a essa condição e a evolução nos últimos anos. Durante todo o período em análise o percentual de jovens nem-nem se manteve relativamente estável, mas apresentou comportamentos distintos entre os grupos avaliados neste trabalho: jovens do sexo masculino, feminino, jovens mães e não mães. De um modo geral, a maioria dos jovens nem-nem se concentra em domicílios de baixa renda, tem baixa escolaridade e destaca-se nessa condição as jovens com filho devido ainda a forte exigência da participação dessas mulheres nas atividades domésticas e cuidados com parentes e/ou crianças. Em relação ao impacto dos PCTR na probabilidade de o domicílio possuir jovens fora do mercado de trabalho e da escola observou-se que apenas para as jovens mães o resultado foi significativo - e nesse caso deve-se considerar a falta de disponibilidade de vagas nas creches e pré-escolas como um intensificador da vulnerabilidade das mulheres nessa condição. Por outro lado, embora os jovens do sexo masculino apresentem o menor percentual de nem-nem entre os grupos analisados, observou-se uma tendência de alta, principalmente entre os menos escolarizados. Dessa forma, políticas públicas de incentivo ao aumento de vagas nas pré-escolas para as crianças devem ser adotadas no sentido de garantir às jovens mães oportunidades de inserção no mercado de trabalho e/ou retorno aos estudos. Deve-se também adotar políticas voltadas para a redução do abandono escolar de jovens do sexo masculino, a fim de evitar círculo vicioso de baixa escolaridade e dificuldade de inserção no mercado de trabalho. / This research aims to estimate the effects of the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programmes in Brazil on the labor supply of NEET, that is, youths neither working nor studying or looking for a job. Based on the study of Foguel and Barros (2010), this study verifies if social programs have the undesirable effect of encouraging young people from beneficiary households to offer less work, based on the estimation of panel data models applied to microdata Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD / IBGE). Two panels were built by the same set of municipalities during two periods: from 2001 to 2009 and from 2011 to 2014. It was possible to identify the profile of NEET in Brazil, the factors associated with this condition and developments in recent years. Throughout the study period, the percentage of inactive youths remained relatively stable, but presented different behaviors among the groups evaluated in this study: young men, women, young mothers and non-mothers. Generally, the majority of NEET are in on low-income households, have low schooling levels and stands out in this condition the young women with children because they have a large participation in domestic activities and group of children and relative care. Regarding the impact of PCTRs on the probability that there is NEET in the household, it was observed that only for the young mothers the result was significant - and in this case one should consider the lack of availability of day care centers and pre-schools as an intensifier of women\'s vulnerability in this condition. On the other hand, although young males had the lowest percentage of idles among the groups analyzed, there was an increase trend among the less educated youths. Thus, public policies that increase the number of pre-schools for children should be adopted in order to guarantee young mothers\' opportunities to enter into the labor market and/or to return to school. Moreover, it is recommended the implementation of policies to reduce school drop-outs for young males, in order to avoid the vicious cycle of low schooling and difficulty to entering in the labor market.

nÃo hà / O objetivo deste trabalho à construir uma funÃÃo de demanda por serviÃos de hotelaria para o Brasil, de modo a oferecer à indÃstria hoteleira um diagnÃstico adequado sobre os principais determinantes da taxa de ocupaÃÃo. Tal processo serà realizado a partir de informaÃÃes extraÃdas do FÃrum de Operadores Hoteleiros do Brasil â FOHB, o qual apresenta observaÃÃes sobre a taxa de ocupaÃÃo, revpar, diÃria mÃdia, localizaÃÃo, fluxo de indÃviduos e sazonalidade para dez capitais brasileiras, as quais sÃo: SÃo Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, VitÃria, Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Salvador, BrasÃlia, Curitiba, Porto Alegre e Manaus. Os dados apresentam-se de forma mensal e corresponde ao perÃodo entre janeiro de 2009 e dezembro de 2012. A metodologia utilizada baseia-se na tÃcnica de dados em painel, em suas versÃes para efeito fixo, efeito aleatÃrio e modelo dinÃmico. Os resultados destacam o efeito depreciativo do preÃo da diÃria, do componente sazonal e do fluxo de indivÃduos sobre a ocupaÃÃo, enquanto que a dummy de localizaÃÃo e o RevPar impactaram de forma positiva. Tais fatos indicam que o serviÃo de hotelaria à um bem do tipo comum, que apresentam variaÃÃes negativas no consumo em perÃodos de baixa estaÃÃo e flutuÃÃes positivas quanto maior a qualidade do serviÃo. / The objective of this work is to construct a function of demand for hotel services to Brazil, in order to offer the hotel industry a proper diagnosis of the main determinants of occupancy. This process will be conducted based on information extracted from the Hotel Operators Forum Brazil - FOHB, which presents observations on the rate of occupancy, RevPAR, daily price, location, seasonality and flow individuals to ten Brazilian capitals, which are SÃo Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, VitÃria, Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Salvador, BrasÃlia, Curitiba, Porto Alegreand Manaus. The data are presented on a monthly basis and corresponds to the period between January 2009 and December 2012. The methodology used is based on the technique of panel data, in its versions for fixed effect, random effect and dynamic model . The results highlight the prejudicial effect of the daily rate, the seasonal component and the flow of individuals on the occupation, while the dummy location and RevPAR positively impacted. These facts indicate that the hotel service is a very common type, which exhibit negative changes in consumption during the low season and positive the higher the quality of service fluctuations.

nÃo hà / O mote de polÃticas pÃblicas no Brasil tem se pautado pela busca da superaÃÃo dos Ãndices de pobreza e pela melhoria das condiÃÃes de vida da populaÃÃo. Neste sentido, a verificaÃÃo da efetividade de tais polÃticas tÃm se focado na avaliaÃÃo de indicadores, tais como os de saÃde, educaÃÃo e renda, vistos individualmente ou de forma consolidada a partir do indicador de desenvolvimento humano. Este trabalho visa avaliar a situaÃÃo dos indicadores sociais, principalmente, de saÃde, como a esperanÃa de vida ao nascer, a mortalidade na infÃncia e infantil, bem como o Ãndice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IDHM) dos municÃpios do Estado do Cearà a partir das informaÃÃes dos Censos DemogrÃficos realizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatÃstica (IBGE) nos anos de 1991, 2000 a 2010, extraÃdas do Atlas de Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil de 2013. A anÃlise descritiva dos dados indicou, a priori, que os municÃpios cearenses apresentaram uma melhora significativa em seus indicadores sociais, bem como uma reduÃÃo na disparidade. Em relaÃÃo aos modelos economÃtricos, de uma maneira geral, estimados por efeitos fixos, verificou-se que o principal determinante à a educaÃÃo, ou a falta dela, com Ãnfase no analfabetismo adulto. / The motto of public policies in Brazil has been guided by the search for overcoming poverty rates and improvement of living conditions of the population. In this sense, the verification of the effectiveness of such policies have focused on evaluating indicators such as health, education and income, individually or consolidated, as viewed from the human development indicator. This study aims to evaluate the situation of social indicators, mainly health and life expectancy at birth, infant mortality and the Municipal Human Development Index (IDHM), using data from 184 municipalities in Ceara State, with information from demographic census, conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the years of 1991, 2000 and 2010, extracted from the Atlas of Human Development in Brazil 2013. The descriptive analysis of the data, indicated, a priori, that the municipalities of Ceara showed a significant improvement in social indicators, as well as a reduction in the disparity. Regarding the econometric models, in general, estimated by fixed effects, it was found that the main determinant is education, or the lack of it, with emphasis on adult illiteracy.

Nota-se que, entre os inícios das décadas de 1990 e 2000, destacando-se, de forma mais evidente o meio dos anos 1990, ocorreu um expressivo fluxo de inversões espanholas em direção à América Latina. Esse montante chegou a representar, em alguns anos, mais de 30% do total de investimento externo recebido pelos países latino-americanos. Apesar desse expressivo aporte de inversões das empresas espanholas na América Latina, não se encontra um significativo número de trabalhos sobre esse tema, ao passo que, ao se buscar análises que utilizem a metodologia estatística, esse número se reduz consideravelmente. Com efeito, a tese aqui apresentada busca identificar os componentes macroeconômicos determinantes do movimento recente de internacionalização produtiva da economia espanhola na América Latina, empregando, basicamente, uma metodologia econométrica de dados em painel, caracterizando os push-pull factors dessa dinâmica. Para uma melhor compreensão da estrutura do modelo econométrico utilizado e, também, das respostas estatísticas alcançadas neste trabalho, faz-se primeiramente uma revisão nos conceitos teóricos das principais escolas econômicas relacionadas aos determinantes dos gastos com investimento em geral. Em seguida, apresentam-se as principais referências teóricas que tratam exclusivamente do investimento estrangeiro direto (IED). Também abordam-se a caracterização da metodologia de dados em painel, com seus respectivos estimadores, e os testes de especificação estatística utilizados. Por fim, já delimitadas as investigações teóricas e a metodologia usada neste trabalho, expõem-se os resultados encontrados. Com efeito, chegou-se a resultados estatísticos suportados por outros trabalhos que analisaram o mesmo tema, porém, com uma abordagem metodológica diversa. Ou seja, o IED espanhol direcionado à América Latina teve como push factors, basicamente, o nível de atividade da economia espanhola, com uma relação positiva, e a absorção interna desse país, com uma relação negativa. A primeira variável possibilita uma significativa acumulação interna às empresas da Espanha. Já o segundo componente aponta para a expectativa de não crescimento da demanda interna desse país ibérico. Os pull factors que, especificados a partir de uma relação positiva com o IED espanhol, se tornaram estatisticamente significativos foram: o tamanho de mercado, a absorção interna, a produtividade, uma variável binária que representa as privatizações, a taxa de câmbio nominal da moeda local contra o Euro e o grau de abertura. Assim, conclui-se que o processo de privatizações e a desvalorização da moeda local frente ao Euro na América Latina possibilitaram um movimento de internacionalização produtiva de alguns subsetores da Espanha que visavam a um aumento de escala, propiciando enfrentar a concorrência de empresas instaladas no mercado comum europeu. / An expressive inflow of investments from Spain towards Latin America occurred between the beginning of 1990’s and 2000’s, especially in the middle of 1990’s. This sum has come to represented in some years more than 30% of total foreign investment received by Latin-American countries. Despite this significant investments inflow from Spanish companies in Latin America, there is not an expressive number of papers related to the subject. Besides, works using statistical methodology are even rarer. The hypothesis encompassed at the present work aims at identifying the macroeconomic determinants to a recent movement of productive internationalization of Spanish economy in Latin America. For this purpose, a panel data econometric methodology has been used, revealing the pushpull factors of this dynamics. For a better understanding of both econometric model structure and reached statistical responses, first it was conducted a revision of theoretical concepts of the main economic schools regarding determinants to investment expenditures in general. Next, it is presented the major theoretical references that deal exclusively with foreign direct investment (FDI). The characterization of panel data methodology, with its respective estimators and statistical specification tests, is also covered. Finally, after having narrowed down theoretical investigation and the methodology applied in this study, the results achieved are discussed. In effect, reached statistical results are in conformity with those supported by other works that had the same issue under consideration, but used different methodological approaches. Hence, the push factors to Spanish FDI directed to Latin America were basically the level of economic activity in Spain, as a positive relation, and absorption rate in this country, as a negative relation. The first variable enabled a significant capital accumulation to Spanish companies. On the other hand, the second component points to the expectation of non-growth of this country’s domestic demand. The pull factors that have become statistically significant were market size, absorption rate, productivity, trade openness, a binary variable that represented privatizations, and nominal exchange rate of local currency against Euro, all of them with a positive relation to the Spanish FDI. Thus, it’s possible to conclude that process of privatizations and devaluation of Latin-American local currencies against Euro allowed a movement of productive internationalization of some subsectors in Spain, which aimed to increase their scale gains in order to face competition from companies installed in European market.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-03-20T12:47:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Matheus Samarone Machado.pdf: 1277931 bytes, checksum: 9a603e1870a69edfdca485aaacc9c807 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-20T12:47:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Matheus Samarone Machado.pdf: 1277931 bytes, checksum: 9a603e1870a69edfdca485aaacc9c807 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-23 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The present research seeks to estimate, through a panel data model, the impacts of the infrastructure investments financed by the BNDES per capita on GDP per capita in each region of Brazil, in order to compare the results between the regions in the period 2003-2014. In order to analyze differences between their multipliers and their conditions after the investments, the impacts were estimated with a one-year gap and without any gap between investments in infrastructure and GDP per capita in the regions. In addition, this research also discusses investments in infrastructure in Brazil, its recent history, the role of BNDES in its promotion and its effects on economic growth / O presente trabalho buscou estimar, por meio de um modelo de dados em painel, os impactos dos investimentos per capita em infraestrutura financiados pelo BNDES sobre o PIB per capita em cada região do Brasil, de modo a comparar os resultados entre as regiões no período 2003-2014. Com o objetivo de analisar diferenças entre seus multiplicadores e suas condições após os investimentos, estimou-se os impactos imediatos e com defasagem de um ano entre os investimentos em infraestrutura e os PIBs per capita nas regiões. Adicionalmente, este trabalho também discute os investimentos em infraestrutura no Brasil, sua história recente, o papel do BNDES em sua promoção e seus efeitos sobre o crescimento econômico

This thesis investigates the relationship between conflict, economic growth, state capacity and natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa. It contributes to the limited research in this area and empirically examines these relationships using different econometric models. The first empirical chapter uses a panel dataset that covers the period 1997 - 2013 to analyse the effects of economic growth on conflict in Nigeria using the negative binomial model. The findings support the direct relationship between economic growth and conflict in Nigeria. Controlling for other factors, the results indicate that increase in growth rate - measured by annual growth rate of GDP per capita - decreases the expected number of conflicts. The study finds no evidence of a relationship between levels of wealth in a state and the incidence of conflicts. The analysis controls for factors such as spill-over effects from other states and year and state effects. Finally, to address potential concerns that economic growth could be a cause of conflict or that other unobserved factors could confound the relationship between economic growth and conflict, the chapter employs instrumental variable (IV) estimation using percentage change in rainfall as an instrument. The results with the IV estimation are similar to the results without IV in terms of both sign and significance, indicating that the negative effect of economic growth on conflicts is not due to reverse causality or omitted variables. For robustness checks, a Panel Autoregressive model (PVAR) is also employed. The second empirical chapter analyses the effect of conflict on state capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa. State capacity is measured in terms of fiscal and legal capacity. It also looks at the effects of internal and external conflicts on state capacity. The chapter adopts the Ordinary least squared (OLS) and the system generalised methods of moments (GMM) estimation methods to analyse the panel data consisting of 49 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 2000 - 2015. The results suggest that conflicts have a negative and significant effect on state capacity. However, when military expenditure is used as a proxy for state capacity it is found that conflict strengthens state capacity. The results are consistent with theoretical argument that internal conflicts polarise societies and make it more difficult for governments to reach a consensus in investing in state capacity, while external conflicts mobilise domestic population against a common enemy thereby helping in state capacity building. Finally, the third empirical chapter examines the effect of natural resources on conflict onset and duration using discrete choice models with a dataset covering the period 1980 -2016. The results on the duration analysis show that natural resources prolong duration of conflicts. However, it is found that not all natural resources prolong duration of conflicts. Oil production does not seem to affect duration, whereas oil reserves and gas production lengthens the duration. The findings from the onset analysis show that both production and reserves of natural resources increase the risk of conflict onset.

Economia / MASTERS IN ECONOMICS / The relationship between patents and R&D involves different levels besides the ones most obvious to us. Throughout the history of economics, patents have arisen as the core of a system of incentives to private pursue of R&D investments, providing the mechanism that guaranteed the appropriability of the output of the knowledge produced. The seminal work of Romer (1990) demonstrated the need to develop a system to assure the necessary return on innovative efforts and thus privately sustain a model of continuous technological improvement and economic growth. Patenting would result in imperfect competition and legally establish the monopoly over the use of the knowledge produced. This led to patents being perceived as an intermediate output of R&D efforts. Though this relationship has been subject of intensive study by economists, the reverse causality issue remains to be thoroughly analyzed, particularly in a negative sense. Can more patents have a negative effect on R&D investment? In the present thesis we address this question, synthesizing the theoretical and empirical studies concerning both the conventional R&D-patents relationship and the reverse causality, in particular, the potential for a negative impact of patents over R&D. The theoretical survey on this issue uncovered several gaps in the literature, specifically in terms of availability of empirical analysis at the country level. Despite the literature on reverse causality direction being scarce; the macroeconomic perspective on this issue is even more unexplored. In fact, there is no evidence that ruled out the possibility of asymmetric effects of patents on R&D in accordance to the level of GDP and technology in general, and to `convergence clubs in particular. Using panel data econometric estimation methods on a sample of 88 countries, over a eight-year period (1996-2003), and controlling for clubs of convergence to account for differences among countries in stages of economic development, we found mix support to the negativity of patent on R&D investment. Stratifying the sample by convergence clubs we obtain that accumulated patents positively impact on R&D intensity for the set of less developed countries whereas no statistically significant effect emerges in the case of higher developed converge clubs. Interestingly, when we restrict the highest developed convergence club down to countries with a R&D intensity above 3%, the negativity reverse causality arises, corroborating the asymmetric impact of patents on R&D investment depending on countries development and technological stage. Finally, we demonstrate that albeit causality appears to be stronger in the most intuitive appealing traditional direction, there is evidence supporting the theoretical conveyed double causality between R&D and Patent. JEL-codes: O31, O34

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the extent of competition between generic products and therapeutic substitutes under different regulatory regimes in the European Union (EU) pharmaceutical industry. In particular, this study investigates generic competition among the five largest European pharmaceutical markets; the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, with comprehensive IMS data for 10 years (1994-2003), in order to estimate the effect of generic entry on drug prices at the product level. This analysis finds that generic entry has a negative effect on prices in countries with free pricing originator market, whereas in EU countries with strict price and reimbursement regulation, generic competition is ineffective and/or counterproductive. Fewer generics and less competitive late entrants are consistent with incentives in regulated environments: low regulated prices for originator products discourage generic entry following patent expiration. These findings suggest that regulation of both manufacturers' prices and retail pharmacy prices undermines price competition in the off-patent sector, and that budgetary savings from generic price competition are not realized in countries with strict regulatory systems.