Agricultural support levels are at a crossroad with reduced distortions in OECD countries and increasing support for agricultural producers in emerging economies over the last decades. This paper studies the determinants of distortions in the agricultural markets by putting a specific focus on the role of trade policy. Applying various different dynamic panel data estimators and explicitly accounting for potential endogeneity of trade policy agreements, we find that an increase in the number of bilateral free trade agreements exhibits significant short- and long-run distortion reducing effects. By contrast, WTO's Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture has not been able to systematically contribute to a reduction in agriculture trade distortions. From a policy point of view our findings thus point to a lack of effectiveness of multilateral trade negotiations. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Cette thèse de doctorat porte sur la compréhension des aspects concurrentiels du marché de l’innovation incrémentale en France en s’appuyant sur une approche empirique. A cette fin, l’analyse porte plus particulièrement sur l’innovation incrémentale et les dynamiques concurrentielles des médicaments appelés en France « similaires ». La littérature anglophone retient les expressions « me-too » ou « follow-on » pour définir les produits pharmaceutiques à faible valeur ajoutée et qui ont des caractéristiques anatomiques, thérapeutiques et chimiques proches des molécules précédemment mises sur le marché. Le premier chapitre vise notamment l’étude sur les parts de marché des médicaments « follow-on » et le lien avec la variable stratégique définie par l’ordre d’arrivée sur le marché. Dans ce chapitre de thèse, on vérifie que les premiers follow-on d’une classe thérapeutique ont un avantage concurrentiel en ce qui concerne la capacité des capturer et de maintenir des parts de marché pendant une longue période. En outre, les parts de marché sont positivement corrélés avec l’habilité de la firme de fixer un prix supérieur au premier médicament de la classe. Cet avantage stratégique des premiers entrants est aussi intrinsèquement lié aux caractéristiques qualitatives des produits puisque nous avons pu constater que les parts de marché des médicaments sont directement corrélés avec le niveau d’innovation du produit. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse apporte des éléments sur la nature concurrentielle en termes de prix du marché de l’innovation pharmaceutique incrémentale. Deux variables dépendantes mesurant le prix ont été considérées : le prix du produit calculé en coût du traitement journalier et le prix du médicament divisé par la moyenne des prix des médicaments similaires dans la classe. Nous vérifions que les derniers entrants ont une tendance à avoir un prix inférieur aux premières molécules « follow-on ». Cela implique une caractérisation des derniers entrants ayant un moindre pouvoir de négociation avec le régulateur autour du prix, notamment en raison d’une qualité innovatrice intrinsèque plus faible. Le troisième chapitre présente une analyse empirique autour de la confrontation des deux marchés émergents et d’importance majeure pour la régulation des systèmes de santé : le marché des génériques et le marché des médicaments « follow-on ». L’analyse se concentre sur les aspects de l’intensité de la compétition dans le marché des médicaments brevetés similaires et son impact sur la pénétration des versions génériques de ces derniers. Le constat est que l’intensité de la compétition de médicaments similaires est positivement et significativement corrélée avec l’introduction des génériques. Plus de produits « follow-on » entrainerait donc une baisse encore plus importante des prix des génériques des derniers « follow-on » dans la classe thérapeutique. L’approche essentiellement empirique de cette thèse doctorale permet ainsi de mieux comprendre les déterminants et la dynamique de ce marché relativement émergent et qui suscite des nombreux débats au sein de la communauté scientifique. Enfin nous terminons par une brève conclusion générale fondé autour des résultats de cette recherche permettent d’affirmer que dans un marché régulé comme celui qui prévaut en France, l’intensité de la compétition, engendré notamment par l’arrivé sur le marché des médicaments « follow-on », peut avoir des conséquences positives sur les aspects concurrentiels du secteur du médicament...... / The dynamics of pharmaceutical markets have been constantly changing last years. The development of the so called “follow-on” or “me-too” drugs has been in the centre of a major debate concerning the ability of innovation in the health sector. These drugs are characterized by having a minor level of innovation and do not add any therapeutic value in relation to the previous drugs launched in the market. This doctoral dissertation proposes three empirical essays concerning competition aspects in the market of incremental innovation in France. The first chapter focuses on the impact of entry order on “follow-on” drugs competition in the French market between years 2001 and 2007. More precisely, this study examines the effects on market share of first entrants in the follow-on drug market and how this possible competitive advantage changes over time. Our results are coherent with theoretical microeconomic issues concerning the importance of being first. We find evidence that first movers in the follow on drug market have the ability to capture and maintain greater market share for a long period of time. The hierarchical market position of follow on drugs does not seem to be affected by generic drugs emergence. From a dynamic perspective, our analysis shows that market share is positively correlated with the ability of follow on drugs to set prices higher than the average follow-on drug price in a specific therapeutic class (ATC) which means that market power remains considerably important for first movers. Finally we found that the optimum level of innovation to maximize market share is the highest one.The second chapter examines the relationship between entry order of follow-on drugs and their prices on the French pharmaceutical market. We used a representative panel data of 1047 follow-on drug formulations distributed in 118 ATC classes set over 2001-2007. Two measures of prices were used in the econometric specifications: the absolute price and the relative price of the follow-on drugs. The former concerns simply the absolute price of the drug in daily costs and the latter is the price of the drug relative to the average price of the follow-on drugs in the class. Both prices are calculated on the basis of manufacturer prices. These different indicators give us similar results for the impact of entry order on prices but they are differently correlated with market share. Moreover, our study analyses the potential impact of several variables on prices of pharmaceutical incremental innovation such as firm size, innovation and intensity of competition. Our results suggest that big firms have more ability to negotiate higher prices and that the number of follow-on drugs in the class and the emergence of generic competition may help decrease general prices in the ATC class. We have not found any relationship between prices and innovation in the French pharmaceutical market.The third chapter investigates the potential relationship between follow-on drugs dissemination and generic drug market emergence. It explores the structural determinants of off-patented drugs development at the therapeutic class level with a focus on explanatory variables that reflect the intensity of competition amongst similar interchangeable drugs. We found that generic market growth is greater in therapeutic classes where the number of similar drugs is high and the average brand price is low. This could be due to the fact that brand name drugs reduce their prices to keep market share when generic drugs enter the market. We study also the generic to follow-on brand price ratio at the individual drug level and we found that generic prices of later follow-on drugs are closer to the price of the brand name than generics of first follow-on movers. Our results are coherent with the fact that intensity of competition in the follow-on drugs may help reduce prices not only in the patented drug markets but also in the off-patented sector.

[pt] A integração vertical, tradicionalmente, sempre foi a estratégia mais adotada pelas maiores empresas da indústria de petróleo, visando capturar lucros extraordinários ao longo da cadeia petrolífera. Várias seriam as razões para a integração vertical, entre elas estariam, a redução dos custos de transação, a discriminação de preços, aumentar o poder de mercado e a criação de barreira à entrada a novos concorrentes. No entanto, duas grandes petrolíferas norteamericanas decidiram pela desintegração de suas atividades, Marathon em 2010 e Conoco em 2011, criando, cada uma, duas empresas independentes, uma de upstream e outra de downstream. Isso veio a por em dúvida se a integração vertical ainda seria a alternativa mais eficiente para essa indústria. Diversos analistas passaram a explicar quais seriam os motivos e vantagens a favor da desintegração, e como se comportariam outras empresas importantes no negócio de petróleo. Assim, esse trabalho objetiva analisar os principais motivos que levam empresas a se integrarem, bem como a utilização de um modelo com dados de 339 empresas de 48 países para checar se a integração ainda seria a melhor opção para empresas da indústria de petróleo. Esse trabalho tem como inspiração o estudo de Barrera-Rey (1995), com algumas alterações. Embora não apresentem a robustez estatística desejada, os resultados apontariam que a integração não mais seria a melhor das opções, embora essa decisão tenha um caráter mais individual para cada empresa do que uma solução para a indústria como um todo. / [en] Vertical integration has traditionally always been the most adopted strategy for the biggest companies in the oil industry, aiming to capture extraordinary profits along the oil supply chain. Several are the reasons for vertical integration, such as the reduction of transaction costs, price discrimination, increased marketpower and creation of barriers to entry of new competitors. However, two major american oil companies decided for the disintegration of their activities, Marathonin 2010 and Conoco in 2011, creating, each, two independent companies, one for the upstream business and another for the downstream business. This brings into question whether vertical integration is still the most efficient strategy for thisindustry. Several analysts began to explain which would be the reasons and advantages in favor of disintegration, and how other leading oil companies wouldbehave in the future. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the main reasons that lead companies to integrate, using a model with data from 339 companies in 48 countries to check if the integration would still be the best option for companies in the oil industry. This work is inspired by the study of Barrera-Rey (1995) with some modifications. While not having the desired statistical robustness, the results indicate that integration is no longer the best option, although that decision would have a more individual character to each company than a solution to the industry as a whole.

Les entreprises investissent de larges sommes dans la fidélisation de leur clientèle. La raison en est simple : les clients fidèles font partie des plus profitables pour les entreprises. Il est donc essentiel de comprendre ce qui amène les consommateurs à être fidèles. La recherche a ainsi considérablement étudié les antécédents de la fidélité à la marque. Ceux-ci peuvent être divisés en trois classes : les antécédents liés à la catégorie de produit, ceux liés au marketing mix du produit et ceux liés au consommateur. Cependant, et malgré l’intérêt des chercheurs pour ces questions, une étude plus approfondie est nécessaire du fait de la mutation des marchés ces dernières décennies. Un des changements les plus marquants est le développement des marques de niche. Le but de cette thèse est ainsi de mieux comprendre ce qui amène les consommateurs à être fidèle à la lumière de ces marques de niche. Nous étudions plus particulièrement les marques bio et de distributeur. Cette thèse comporte quatre études, chacune s’intéressant à une classe particulière d’antécédents. Nos résultats nous permettent, tout d’abord, de réexaminer l’effet de certains antécédents grâce à des données de panel récentes. Ils nous donnent ensuite des indications sur les effets des marques de niche sur la fidélité à la marque. Plus précisément, ils démontrent que le développement des marques de niche a un effet sur la fidélité à un niveau agrégé. De la même façon, on observe un effet modérateur du type de marques de niche sur l’effet de certains antécédents. Nous discutons les implications théoriques, méthodologiques et managériales de ces résultats. / Firms invest heavily in building and maintaining relationships with their customers. This is due to loyal customers being among the most profitable ones for firms. It is thus essential for managers and researchers to understand what drives customers to become loyal. Researchers have investigated brand loyalty antecedents at great length. These antecedents can be divided in three classes: product category, marketing mix and customer-related ones. Despite the large body of research on these antecedents, an update is necessary as markets have been changing in the last decades. One of the major changes has been the apparition and proliferation of niche brands (such as organic and private label brands) that are positioned to serve segments of consumers with specific needs. The aim of this Ph.D. research is to fill these gaps and get a better understanding of what influences brand loyalty in the light of niche brands’ development. We specifically focus on two types of niche brands: organic and private label brands. This Ph.D. research is comprised of four studies, each one investigating one class of antecedents. Our results first enable us to reassess the effect of certain antecedents of brand loyalty using recent panel purchase data. It also gives us some insights on the role of niche brands. It shows that the proliferation of niche brands and more specifically the proliferation of private label brands has an effect on brand loyalty at an aggregate level. In the same way, niche brands have a moderating effect on the impact of some antecedents of brand loyalty. Theoretical, methodological and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.

Notre étude essaye de décrire comment les interactions entre la RSE et la performance financière sont influencées en se basant sur la théorie du management par les ressources et la vision instrumentale de la théorie des parties prenantes tout en considérant la RSE comme un bien public qui s’inscrit dans le prolongement des logiques d’intérêt général et qui contribue à la maximisation du bien-être collectif. Nous testons le rôle de la réputation de l’entreprise dans la relation de la performance sociétale vers la performance financière. Empiriquement, nous utilisons des données de panel de 7 ans (2006-2012) pour 324 entreprises états-uniennes. La performance sociétale est mesurée selon des critères de performance ESG (environnementale, sociale et de gouvernance) par l’agence de notation extra-financière MSCI. En ce qui concerne la performance financière, nous utilisons une mesure boursière (le Q de Tobin) et une mesure comptable (ROE). Les résultats montrent l’existence d’une relation qui a la forme d’un cercle vertueux entre la performance sociétale et la performance financière avec la mesure boursière de la performance financière. Quant à la réputation, l’étude montre qu’elle a un impact significatif sur la relation de la performance sociétale vers la performance financière. Les résultats soulignent aussi que la relation positive significative de la performance sociétale vers la performance financière se retrouve notamment au niveau de la performance sociale et de la performance de gouvernance de la performance sociétale de l’entreprise. Notre étude désigne la performance de gouvernance et la performance environnementale comme des performances qui peuvent influencer la réputation de l’entreprise. / Our study seeks to describe how the interactions between CSR and financial performance are affected based on the theory of resource-based view (RBV) and the instrumental view of stakeholder theory while considering CSR as a public good which constitutes a coherent extension of the general interest and which contributes to the maximization of social well-being. We are testing the role of corporate reputation concerning the relationship of CSR to financial performance. Empirically, we use panel data of 7 years (2006-2012) for 324 US companies. CSR is measured according to ESG performance criteria (environmental, social and governance) by the MSCI Extra-Financial Rating Agency. Regarding the financial performance, we use a market measure (Tobin's Q) and an accounting measure (ROE). The results emphasize the existence of a relation that has the shape of a virtuous circle between CSR and financial performance with the market measure of financial performance. As for reputation, the present study shows that it has a significant impact on the relation of CSR to financial performance. The results also emphasize that the significant positive relationship of CSR to financial performance can be found particularly in social performance and governance performance. Our study indicates the governance and environmental performances likewise the performance which can influence the reputation of the company.

Sedan 2015, då antalet asylsökande i Sverige nådde rekordhöjder, har frågan om hur flyktingar ska integrera sig i samhället tagits upp. Konsensus är att arbetsmarknadsetableringen är en viktig faktor och därmed har så kallade ”enkla jobb” föreslagits som en lösning på att öka sysselsättningen för flyktingar. Samtidigt kan det observeras ett nytt fenomen på arbetsmarknaden, gigekonomin. Kan gigekonomins enkla jobb vara lösningen?  Syftet med denna undersökning är att analysera gigekonomins påverkan på flyktingars arbetsmarknadsutfall i form av sysselsättning och inkomst. I studien används paneldataanalys för att isolera effekten av gigekonomiföretagens etablering på flyktingars sysselsättning och inkomster. Undersökningens huvudestimat visar att existensen av gigekonomi i en kommun ökar sysselsättningen för flyktingar med 5,2 procentenheter. Efter utförande av flera känslighetstest kan dock denna effekt inte betraktas som robust. Därmed kan inte undersökningen påvisa att det är just gigekonomin som har orsakat denna effekt. / Since 2015, when the number of asylum seekers in Sweden grew to record breaking heights, the question about how refugees will integrate into society has been raised. The consensus is that the integration into the labour market is an important factor and therefore entry level jobs have been suggested as a solution. Currently a new phenomenon can be observed on the labour market, the gig economy. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of the gig economy on refugees’ social outcome in terms of employment and income. The study uses panel data analysis to isolate the effect of the gig economy on refugees employment and income. The main estimate of the study shows that the impact of the existance of a gig economy in i municipality increases the employment for refugees by 5,2 percentage points. However, after the execution of multiple robustness tests the effect cannot be considered robust. Therefore, the study cannot prove that it is specifically the gig economy that is the cause to this effect.

O regime de metas de inflação é uma estratégia de política monetária utilizada por inúmeros países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento que tem por objetivo ancorar as expectativas dos agentes econômicos quanto ao comportamento futuro da taxa de inflação. De acordo com a literatura sobre o tema, o regime de metas inflacionárias além de provocar efeitos positivos sobre a taxa de inflação das economias que o adotam, tende também a provocar melhoras sobre o comportamento do produto. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar empiricamente os impactos da adoção do sistema de metas de inflação para a taxa de inflação e crescimento real do produto dos países, diferenciando os impactos entre os países desenvolvidos e os em desenvolvimento. Utilizando o grupo de países que adotam metas de inflação como o grupo de tratamento e os países que não adotam como grupo de controle, dois procedimentos metodológicos foram realizados: estimação por diferenças em diferenças e análise em painel. Os resultados da estimação por diferenças em diferenças não se mostraram robustos e assim a análise em painel foi realizada. Os resultados demonstram que a adoção do sistema de metas inflacionárias produz impactos significativos para a inflação e crescimento do produto dos países que o adotam. Para o caso dos países desenvolvidos a adoção do sistema de metas tende a elevar a taxa média de inflação assim como o crescimento do produto. Para os países em desenvolvimento, aqueles que adotam o regime tendem a apresentar médias de inflação e do crescimento do produto significativamente menores que os países que não adotam. Concluí-se que para os países em desenvolvimento existe um custo de manutenção do sistema de metas de inflação em termos de queda do crescimento do produto. Esse custo estaria relacionado à maior dificuldade enfrentada por tais países na construção de credibilidade, fazendo com que os mesmos sigam políticas monetárias restritivas e definam um desenho rígido para o regime de metas de inflação. / Inflation targeting is a monetary policy strategy used by several developed and developing countries which aims to link together the economic actors? expectation related to the future behaviour of the inflation rate. According to specialized literature, inflation targeting tends to bring an improvement over product behaviour, besides bringing positive effects over inflation rates of those countries that make use of it. The focal point of this dissertation is to empirically analyse the impacts caused by the adoption of inflation targeting system on countries? inflation rate and real GDP growth, distinguishing effects on developed countries from those on developing ones. Defining the group made of countries that do use inflation targeting as treatment group and the group made of countries that do no use it as control group, two methodological procedures were accomplished: differences-in-differences estimation and panel data analysis. As the results of differences-in-differences estimator did not seem robust, panel analysis was also consummated. These results showed that inflation targeting adoption causes significative impacts on inflation rate and GDP growth in countries that adopt it. In developed countries, the adoption of such monetary policy strategy tends to increase the mean inflation rate, which also occurs with the GDP growth. In the other hand, developing countries that adopted inflation targeting tend to present mean inflation rate and GDP growth substantially lower than developing countries that do not make use of it. Though, it is possible to conclude that exists a maintenance cost of inflation targeting system for developing countries regarding the loss in GDP growth. This cost could be related to the greater difficulty that these countries face when forming credibility, which forces them to follow restrictive monetary policies and also to define an strict outline for inflation targeting.

Na teoria clássica de finanças, o sentimento do investidor não é considerado um fator importante sobre os preços das ações. Embora a existência do sentimento do investidor não seja negada, as teorias normalmente partem do princípio de que, em mercados financeiros competitivos, comportamentos de agentes quase-racionais são rapidamente eliminados. Esta tese tem o objetivo de investigar a relação entre o sentimento de mercado e as taxas de retorno futuras das ações. É proposta uma metodologia para a criação de um índice de sentimento específico para o mercado brasileiro com uso da análise de componentes principais. Com o objetivo de verificar a relação deste índice de sentimento com as taxas de retorno das ações, foi estimado um modelo de apreçamento em que esta variável foi incluída, para o período de 1999 a 2008. A amostra foi composta por empresas não-financeiras com ações listadas na BOVESPA, com uma negociabilidade mínima que garantisse observações suficientes e representativas para validar os resultados encontrados na pesquisa. O modelo de apreçamento foi estimado por GMM, levando em consideração o índice de sentimento de mercado, o risco sistêmico das empresas (medido pelo beta) e fatores como tamanho, índice market-to-book, alavancagem, momentum e crescimento da receita. Empregaram-se diferentes procedimentos para estimar os parâmetros dos modelos empíricos formulados, com o propósito de isolar influências espúrias, ocasionadas pela presença de heterogeneidade não-observada, pela existência de eventuais observações extremas ou mesmo pela possível endogeneidade dos regressores. Os resultados deste estudo empírico sugerem que o sentimento é um fator relevante no apreçamento das ações no mercado brasileiro. A relação negativa e significante entre o índice de sentimento e as taxas de retorno, encontrada consistentemente em diferentes modelos, indica um padrão de reversão nas taxas de retornos, ou seja, após um período de sentimento positivo, o impacto nas taxas de retorno no período seguinte é negativo, e vice-versa. / In classical finance theory investor sentiment is not considered an important factor in asset pricing. Although the existence of investor sentiment is not denied, theories assume that in competitive markets quasi-rational behavior is quickly offset by rational agents. The main goal of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and future stock return rates. It is proposed a methodology to create a sentiment index specifically to the Brazilian market using principal components analysis. In order to analyze the relationship between this sentiment index and the future stock returns, it was estimated a pricing model including this variable for the period comprehending 1999 to 2008. Considering a negotiability restriction to assure representative and sufficient observations to validate a pricing model, the sample consisted of non-financial firms listed at BOVESPA. The pricing model was estimated by GMM considering the sentiment index, systematic risk (market beta) and factors as firm size, market-to-book ratio, leverage and return predictability measured by momentum or income growth. Different estimation procedures were applied to find empirical models coefficients which are less affected by spurious influence such as unobserved heterogeneity, outliers or possible regressors endogeneity. Results of the empirical study suggest that sentiment is a relevant factor in Brazilian asset pricing models. A negative and statistically significant relationship between the sentiment index and stock returns was consistently found in different models specifications. These findings suggest the existence of a reversion pattern in stock returns, meaning that after a positive sentiment period, the impact on subsequent stock returns is negative and vice-versa.

A pergunta de pesquisa está centrada em avaliar o impacto sobre a produtividade científica dos pesquisadores universitários envolvidos em projetos financiados pelos fundos do Petróleo. Foram reunidos dados sobre o desempenho de 784 pesquisadores brasileiros, agrupados em dois grupos, financiados e não financiados pela Petrobrás/ANP. As evidências obtidas revelam que o impacto da interação Universidade-Petrobrás sobre a produtividade científica dos pesquisadores pertencentes a amostra depende da modalidade de parceria estabelecido no financiamento do projeto de pesquisa. Em termos quantitativos, a interação indireta com a Petrobrás/ANP (ou seja, via CT-Petro) acarreta impacto positivo sobre o número de artigos publicados no ISI, a interação direta (ou seja, via Cenpes e/ou informada no Censo de Grupos de Pesquisa do CNPq) não produz efeito estatisticamente significativo sobre a produtividade acadêmica. Complementarmente, em termos qualitativos a análise não identificou a presença de alterações na trajetória de produtividade decorrente da interação com a Petrobrás/ANP. Adicionalmente, as estimações revelaram uma relação quadrática entre a idade e o número de artigos publicados no ISI, que apresenta um pico em torno dos 56 anos, corroborando a hipótese de existência de um ciclo de vida para o pesquisador. Estimações separadas pelas grandes áreas científicas revelam, contudo que este impacto não é uniforme. Uma possível explicação para esses resultados encontra-se nos diferentes estágios de desenvolvimento dessas áreas, bem como da dependência dessas áreas para com os recursos transferidos pela Petrobrás/ANP. O impacto é positivo em Engenharia, uma área mais fortemente influenciada pela Petrobrás, ou pela dependência de sua oferta de recursos, ou ainda pela importância de sua temática de pesquisa. Já em áreas mais consolidadas e menos dependentes da oferta de recursos e demanda por pesquisa da Petrobrás, a interação não apresenta efeitos estatisticamente significantes sobre o número de artigos publicados. / The research question focuses on assessing the impact on the scientific productivity of academic researchers involved in projects financed by the Oil Funds. We built a database on the performance of 784 Brazilian researchers, grouped into two groups, funded and not funded by Petrobrás/ANP. The evidences show that the impact of University-Petrobrás interaction on the scientific productivity of researchers from the sample depends on the kind of partnership established in the financing of the research project. In quantitative terms, the indirect interaction with Petrobrás/ANP (that is, by CT-Petro) brings positive impact on the number of articles published in the ISI, and the direct interaction (that is, by CENPES and/or Census of Research Groups/CNPq) does not produce statistically significant effect on the academic productivity. In addition, in qualitative terms the statistical model did not identify the presence of changes in the trajectory of productivity due to interaction with Petrobrás/ANP. Additionally, the estimates showed a quadratic relationship between age and number of articles published in the ISI, which has a peak around 56 years old, supporting the hypothesis of a life cycle for the researcher. Estimates separated by groups of areas of science reveal, however, that this impact is not uniform. One possible explanation for these results lies in the different stages of development in these areas, as well as the dependence of these areas to the resources transferred by Petrobrás/ANP. The impact is positive in Engineering, an area strongly influenced by Petrobrás, or its dependence on its supply of resources, or the importance of its thematic research. In areas more consolidated and less dependent on resource availability and demand for research from Petrobrás, the interaction shows no statistically significant effects on the number of published articles.

Thesis advisor: Donald Cox / I investigate the effect of the medical brain drain on health in sub-Saharan Africa. Such information would be invaluable to policymakers; if doctors are likely to emigrate, there is little benefit in investing in their training. Previous work has mostly been limited to measuring correlations, which fail to illuminate causal pathways; countries with weakly structured healthcare systems may have both poor health and high physician emigration. I address the problem with an instrumental variable. For African countries with historic colonial ties to the United Kingdom or France, I used immigration policy changes in these European nations to instrument for the medical brain drain. Higher rates of medical brain drain cause decreased physician density, decreased rates of measles immunizations among children, and increased rates of HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, I conclude that targeting physician emigration would help improve health in the region. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: College Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.