This dissertation presents an analysis of the impacts of trade policy reforms in Sri Lanka. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed with detailed description of the domestic production structure and foreign trade. The model is then used to investigate the effects of trade policy reforms on resource allocation and welfare. Prior to 1977, Sri Lanka maintained stringent control over its imports through rigid quantitative restrictions. A new economic policy reform package was introduced in 1977, and it shifted Sri Lanka's development strategy toward an export oriented policy regime. The shift of policy focus from a restrictive trade regime toward a more open trade regime is expected to have a significant impact on the volume of external trade, domestic production structure, allocation of resources, and social welfare. Simulations are carried out to assess the effects of three major policy reforms: (1) a devaluation of the Sri Lanka rupee, (2) a partial or a complete elimination of export duties, and (3) a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties. Simulation results indicate that the macroeconomic impact of a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties can be substantial. They also suggest that the resource-pull effects of a devaluation and a devaluation-cum-export duty removal policy are significant. However, the model shows that a devaluation combined with an export duty reduction is likely to be a superior strategy.

The objective of this study was to provide empirical evidence on the effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability on private investment. My effort is expressed in a single-equation model using macroeconomic and socio-political data from eight Latin American countries for the period 1970-1996. Relative price uncertainty is measured by the implied volatility of the exchange rate and political instability is measured by using indicators of social unrest and political violence. I found that, after controlling for other variables, relative price uncertainty and political instability are negatively associated with private investment. Macroeconomic and political stability are key ingredients for the achievement of a strong investment response. This highlights the need to develop the state and build a civil society in which citizens can participate in decision-making and express consent without generating social turmoil. At the same time the government needs to implement structural policies along with relative price adjustments to eliminate excess volatility in price movements in order to provide a stable environment for investment.

Includes bibliographical references. / This paper builds on a growing literature on trade-related international technology diffusion. It examines whether South Africa can enhance its productivity by importing machinery and equipment that embodies foreign knowledge from trading partners that do significant amounts of research and development. The focus is on South Africa's manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the paper also examines the role of human capital in the facilitation of the effective adoption of foreign technology. Using trade data from 1976 to 2001 - imports from the European Union, industrialized countries and 'advanced' developing countries - the relationship between capital imports and total factor productivity growth and human capital is analysed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. The results show that there is evidence of an equilibrium relationship between the variables; that foreign technology spillovers have taken place in the manufacturing sector, and that the effect on productivity is enhanced by the presence of quality human capital.

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Master of Arts (MA)

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to construct a very simple econometric model to explain Canada's Gross National Expenditure (G.N.E.) during the post-world war II years, 1947-1962, and to indicate how this simple model may be used as a tool in the formulation of Canada's short-run economic policy.</p> <p>In form this thesis is divided into five chapters. The first chapter gives a simple explanation or a general theory of the determination of G.N.E., while the second chapter analysis the historical behaviour of Canada's G.N.E. with a view to determining: (a) the main factors which were responsible for producing short-run changes in the level of this aggregate, and (b) whether there has been any stability in the pattern of these changes. this being done, the third chapter develops, on the basis of the background knowledge provided by Chapters I and II, an hypothesis concerning the short-run determination of Canada's G.N.E. The fourth chapter then presents the statistical estimates of the mathematical relationships derived from this hypothesis, and attempts to select that estimating equation which gives the best explanation of Canada's G.N.E. Lastly, Chapter V summarieses chapters I to IV and discusses in particular the use of the selected estimating equation as a simple forecasting tool.</p> / Master of Arts (MA)

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

<p>A survey of the growth and the disposition of the investments of Canadian life insurance companies over the period 1927 to 1946.</p> / Bachelor of Arts (BA)