I study how insider trading interacts with the political economy, regulators, and other corporate governance mechanisms. In the first section, I examine the impact of insider trading restriction enforcement on firm innovation. U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions are intended to protect investors and limit expropriation by firm insiders, but enforcement could impact insiders’ incentives to contribute to value enhancing activities. Therefore, I explore how corporate innovation and performance respond to insider trading restrictions imposed by firms and regulators. Using manually collected data on SEC indictments against corporate insiders, I document more innovative activity following external insider trading restrictions. External restrictions are also followed by higher corporate investment, capital access, and operating performance. Similarly, internal blackout restrictions to insider trading are also linked to more patents. SEC and congressional rule changes serve as quasi-natural experiments resulting in shocks in enforcement and indictments for identification and inference. Overall, the results suggest insider trading restrictions and enforcement actions impact subsequent firm activities and managerial decisions by protecting outside investment, resulting in more investment and innovation. In the second section, I explore the relation between political uncertainty and insider trading. With political uncertainty elevated recently, I examine the role of political uncertainty among insiders. By measuring firm-specific political risk measured from conference calls, I observe insiders trade more actively during uncertain periods with trading volume and transaction value increasing alongside political uncertainty. The results are driven by non-routine insider transactions and purchases at firms with CEO duality and fewer insider trading restrictions. Next, I observe similar results when exploiting variation in election timing across states and alternative external measures. Moreover, I find evidence of informed insider trading by observing higher abnormal returns following insider trades amidst political uncertainty. Finally, I find political uncertainty is linked to lower bid-ask spreads and leverage but observe higher outstanding shares with more insider trading when experiencing positive political uncertainty, consistent with insiders informing markets and improving liquidity. Overall, these results suggest insiders purchase more actively and opportunistically amidst political uncertainty, improving market information quality, especially when internal governance is accommodating.

abstract: In this study, I test whether firms reduce the information asymmetry stemming from the political process by investing in political connections. I expect that connected firms enjoy differential access to relevant political information, and use this information to mitigate the negative consequences of political uncertainty. I investigate this construct in the context of firm-specific investment, where prior literature has documented a negative relation between investment and uncertainty. Specifically, I regress firm investment levels on the interaction of time-varying political uncertainty and the degree of a firm's political connectedness, controlling for determinants of investment, political participation, general macroeconomic conditions, and firm and time-period fixed effects. Consistent with prior work, I first document that firm-specific investment levels are significantly lower during periods of increased uncertainty, defined as the year leading up to a national election. I then assess the extent that political connections offset the negative effect of political uncertainty. Consistent with my hypothesis, I document the mitigating effect of political connections on the negative relation between investment levels and political uncertainty. These findings are robust to controls for alternative explanations related to the pre-electoral manipulation hypothesis and industry-level political participation. These findings are also robust to alternative specifications designed to address the possibility that time-invariant firm characteristics are driving the observed results. I also examine whether investors consider time-varying political uncertainty and the mitigating effect of political connections when capitalizing current earnings news. I find support that the earnings-response coefficient is lower during periods of increased uncertainty. However, I do not find evidence that investors incorporate the value relevant information in political connections as a mitigating factor. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Accountancy 2014

This paper applies event study analysis on stock and bond market data in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2012 in order to assess market reaction to key economic policymaker changes. The analysis relies on methodological framework is based on article of Kuttner & Posen (2010) and on an original database of political events. The empirical results show that policymaker changes are not reflected in markets as single-day events, rather they are associated with several days of increased volatility following the event. Furthermore, elections are shown to be linked with market volatility on the event day as well as in postevent period.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the bi-directional causality between political uncertainty and the market risk premium in the US. Design/methodology/approach: I use a theoretical model to motivate signs and then check signs based on a vector autoregression. Findings: I find that political uncertainty has a small positive, delayed effect on the market risk premium. The market risk premium, on the other hand, has a large permanent, negative effect on political uncertainty. Originality/value: This is the first research paper to consider the bi-directional effects of political uncertainty on the market risk premium and vice versa. It also finds interesting empirical results.

No description available.

In recent years, corporate textual disclosure has gained considerable attention in accounting and finance research. The textual disclosures complete the picture of a firm's economic performance in addition to the quantitative information. Many studies have investigated various determinants and consequences of textual disclosure attributes. This thesis aims to contribute to this growing strand of literature that studies the drivers of the textual attributes of narrative disclosure. The thesis consists of three essays related to political uncertainty, CEO characteristics, and corporate social responsibility. The first essay (Chapter 2) investigates the impact of political uncertainty on the informativeness of a firm's narrative disclosure. Using conference calls, the results show that firms exposed to political uncertainty provide less readable disclosure, more ambiguous tone, and rely more on scripted responses to analysts. Further analysis reveals that obfuscatory disclosure has predictive power over a firm's future poor performance, suggesting that managers use obfuscation to opportunistically mask poor future performance during high political uncertainty periods. The second essay (Chapter 3) examines the impact of the CEO's tenure on the firm's disclosure complexity. Based on upper echelon theory, the results show that early tenured CEOs with greater career concerns have more incentive to provide more readable disclosure to affect the market perception about their ability. However, long-tenured managers get more entrenched and provide obfuscated disclosure. In addition, the results indicate that the effectiveness of different governance mechanisms in improving the quality of a firm narrative disclosure depends on the CEO's tenure. In particular, board oversight (internal governance by subordinate executives) is more effective in constraining new (long-tenured) CEOs' myopic disclosure practices. The third essay (Chapter 4) explores the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) orientation and textual attributes of financial disclosures. The results show that firms with high CSR orientation provide more readable disclosures and use a less ambiguous tone in their annual reports. These findings are consistent with the notion that managers in CSR-conscious firms adhere to high ethical standards and commit to improving the transparency of their firms' financial disclosures. In addition, the study provides evidence that corporate governance mechanisms and CSR are substitutes for each other to ensure transparent disclosure. Overall, the findings of these studies provide insights to the investing community, the firm's board of directors, and standards-setters to better understand the implications of firm CSR engagement, political exposure, and CEO characteristics in financial reporting contexts beyond quantitative metrics.

The drivers of CO2 emissions are a widely studied subject of great importance to both individual countries and the global community. However, the inclusion of a quantitative measure of political uncertainty, national and global, has until now been largely overlooked. We investigate how geopolitical uncertainty (GPU) and income interact with CO2 emissions using a panel quantile regression approach for a set of 63 nations over the period 1985-2014. Our key findings are; (i) a consistent negative (positive) relation between global (local) uncertainty and the different CO2 emission distribution levels, (ii) the relation between uncertainty and emissions is heterogeneous across different income groups, (iii) clear and consistent evidence for the Environmental Kuztnet Curve hypothesis with respect to uncertainty, (iiii) when deciding on environmental policy, it is of great importance to consider political uncertainty and whether to use a local or global measure.

[pt] Neste trabalho é desenvolvida uma teoria sobre como a opinião pública influencia as decisões de política econômica implementadas por governantes em uma economia. Mostra-se que a distribuição na população do acesso à informação a respeito das decisões dos governantes pode ter grande impacto sobre a forma como a opinião pública influencia essas decisões. Busca-se assim explicar como diferenças na maneira pela qual a informação a respeito das decisões dos governantes é difundida na população de uma economia podem gerar importantes mudanças nas decisões de política econômica nela implementadas. A análise é apresentada a partir de um modelo de career concern onde governantes tomam decisões de política econômica envolvendo um conflito de interesses entre grupos que observam imperfeitamente suas decisões. Os resultados obtidos permitem explicar o fato aparentemente contraditório de determinados países da América Latina apresentarem simultaneamente um favorecimento arraigado de grupos abastados por parte da estrutura de gastos públicos e uma alta incerteza associada às decisões de política econômica. Eles também permitem se propor um canal explicando como a distribuição do acesso à informação sobre os governantes pode reduzir a taxa de crescimento de uma economia e assim limitar seu desenvolvimento. Ressalta-se então a importância das instituições políticas e do comportamento da imprensa para países em desenvolvimento. / [en] A theory explaining how public opinion may impact the choice of economic policies made by incumbents is developed in this work. Mentioned impact it s shown to be influenced in important ways by the distribution of access to information about incumbent s choices in the population. Thus, the importance of that distribution for economic policies chosen by politicians in an economy is highlighted. The analysis is based on a career concern model where incumbents choose an economic policy involving conflicting interests among voters who are imperfectly informed about their decisions. Based on the obtained results, an explanation for a fact observed in many Latin American countries it s provided. In those countries, although wealthier groups of society are systematically favored by governmental spending, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with economic policies chosen by governments. A mechanism explaining how the distribution of access to information about incumbent s choices can hinder economic growth and development in an economy is also presented. The analysis suggests that media behavior and the design of political institutions are important factors for the economic development of developing countries.

Governments across the globe are experiencing enormous budget deficits. The governments of South Africa and Australia felt that taxes on mining have not been reflecting a ‘willing buyer-willing seller’ relationship. This in essence means that mining companies in these two countries were not paying an arm’s length value to governments for extracting the resources. In Australia the authorities introduced the Resources Super Profits Tax to be charged at 40% of assessable profits. Mining companies still have to assess how to deal with this new tax when it is enacted on 1 July 2012. However, a change advantageous for the companies is the reduction in the corporate tax rate from 30% to 28% by the 2014/15 tax year. This Resources Super Profits Tax will also be deductible from the calculation of taxable income. South Africa enacted the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Royalty Acton 1 March 2010. Mining companies would now pay royalties based on a charging formula specifically for refined and unrefined minerals. The minimum royalty charging formula is 0.5% of gross sales regardless of whether the mining company incurs losses. This royalty charging formula is capped at 5% for refined minerals and 7% for unrefined minerals. However, any existing arrangement between mining companies and land owners for special royalties payable is not replaced by the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Royalty Act. A mining company such as Kumba Resources Limited never paid royalties in 2009, but were paying royalties in 2010 at 5.61% of accounting earnings before interest and taxes and 5.51% in 2011. Despite the additional royalties mining companies still invest in South Africa. The main drive for investment is managing risks and investing in projects that yield positive net present values. Typical risks to be managed are taxation laws, political uncertainty and social issues. These risks should be kept under control as the likelihood of mining companies walking away from investments is high when these risks spiral out of control. AFRIKAANS : Regerings dwarsoor die wêreld ondervind wesenlike begrotingstekorte. Die regerings van Suid Afrika en Australië glo dat die belasting op mynbou-maatskappye nie die ‘gewillige koper-gewillige verkoper’ verhouding weerspieël nie. In beginsel beteken dit dat die mynbou-maatskappye in die twee lande nie armlengte-waarde betaal aan regerings vir die ontginning van minerale nie. In Australië het owerhede die Minerale Super Winste Belasting gepromulgeer wat 40% heffings van berekende winste vereis. Mynbou-maatskappye is steeds in die donker oor hoe om hierdie nuwe belasting te hanteer wanneer dit op 1 Julie 2012 in werking tree.Die verlaging van die korporatiewe belastingkoers van 30% na 28% oor ’n tydperk tot en met die 2014/15 belastingjaaris egter ’n verandering wat voordelig is vir die maatskappye. Hierdie Minerale Super Winste Belasting sal ook van belasbare inkomste van mynbou-maatskappye aftrekbaar wees. Suid Afrika het die Minerale en Petroleum Reserwes Tantieme Wet op 1 Maart 2010 gepromulgeer. Mynbou-maatskappye sal in die vervolg tantieme betaal wat gebaseer word op ’n heffingsformule spesifiek ontwerp vir verwerkte en onverwerkte minerale. Die minimum tantieme heffingsformule is 0.5% van bruto verkope ongeag of die mynbou-maatskappy verliese ly. Hierdie tantieme heffingsformule word wel beperk tot 5% vir verwerkte minerale en 7% vir onverwerkte minerale. Enige huidige ooreenkoms met grondeienaars vir die betaling van spesiale tantieme word ongelukkig nie oorskryf deur die Minerale en Petroleum Reserwes Tantieme Wet nie. ’n Mynbou-maatskappy soos Kumba Resources Beperk het geen tantieme in 2009 betaal nie. In 2010 was Kumba Resources Beperk se tantieme 5.61% van rekeningkundige wins voor rente en belasting en in 2011 was dit 5.51%. Ondanks hierdie addisionele tantieme belê mynbou-maatskappye steeds in Suid Afrika. Die hoof-dryfveer vir beleggings is die bestuur van risiko en belegging in projekte wat positiewe netto huidige waardes lewer. Tipiese risiko’s wat bestuur moet word, is belastingwette, politieke onsekerheid en sosiale kwessies. Hierdie risiko’s moet te alle tye onder beheer gehou word omrede mynbou- maatskappye heel waarskynlik van beleggings kan onttrek indien die risiko’s buite beheer raak. Copyright / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / Taxation / unrestricted

This dissertation mainly studies correlation and then portfolio analysis of financial contagion and capital flight, focusing on currency co-movements around the political uncertainty due to the Brexit referendum on 26 June 2016. The correlation, mean, and covariance computations in the analysis are both time-unconditional and time-conditional, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) methods are applied. The correlation analysis in this dissertation (Chapter 1) extends the previous literature on contagion testing based on a single global factor model, bivariate correlation analysis, and heteroskedasticity bias correction. Chapter 1 proposes an alternatively extended framework, assuming that intensification of financial correlations in a state of distress could coincide with rising global-factor-loading variability, provides simple tests to verify the assumptions of the literature and of the extended framework, and considers capital flight other than merely financial contagion. The outcomes show that, compared to the literature, the extended framework can be deemed more verified to the Brexit case. Empirically, with the UK being the shock-originating economy and the sterling value plummeting on the US dollar, there exist contagions to some other major currencies as well as a flight to quality, particularly to the yen, probably suggesting diversification benefits. When the correlation coefficients are time-conditional, or depend more on more recent data, the evidence shows fewer contagions and flights since the political uncertainty in question disappeared gradually over time. After relevant interest rates were partialled out, some previous statistical contagion and flight occurrences became less significant or even insignificant, possibly due to the significant impacts of the interest rates on the corresponding currency correlations. The portfolio analysis in this dissertation (Chapter 2) examines financial contagion and capital flight implied by portfolio reallocations through mean-variance portfolio analysis, and builds on the correlation analysis in Chapter 1. In the correlation analysis, correlations are bivariate, whereas in the portfolio analysis they are multivariate and the risk-return tradeoff is also vitally involved. Portfolio risk minimization and reward-to-risk maximization are the two analytical cases of portfolio optimality taken into consideration. Robust portfolio optimizations, using shrinkage estimations and newly proposed risk-based weight constraints, are also applied. The evidence demonstrates that the portfolio analysis outcomes regarding currency contagions and flights, implying diversification benefits, vary and are noticeably dissimilar from the correlation analysis outcomes of Chapter 1. Subsequently, it could be inferred that the diversification benefits deduced from the portfolio and correlation analyses differ owing to the dominance, during market uncertainty, of the behaviors of the means and (co)variances of all the shock-originating and shock-receiving returns, over the behaviors of just bivariate correlations between the shock-originating and shock-receiving returns. Moreover, corrections of the heteroskedasticity bias inherent in the shock-originating returns, overall, do not have an effect on currency portfolio rebalancing. Additionally, hedging demands could be implied from detected structural portfolio reallocations, probably as a result of variance-covariance shocks rising from Brexit. / This dissertation mainly studies correlation and then portfolio analysis of financial contagion and capital flight, focusing on currency co-movements around the political uncertainty due to the Brexit referendum on 26 June 2016. The correlation, mean, and covariance computations in the analysis are both time-unconditional and time-conditional, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) methods are applied. The correlation analysis in this dissertation (Chapter 1) extends the previous literature on contagion testing based on a single global factor model, bivariate correlation analysis, and heteroskedasticity bias correction. Chapter 1 proposes an alternatively extended framework, assuming that intensification of financial correlations in a state of distress could coincide with rising global-factor-loading variability, provides simple tests to verify the assumptions of the literature and of the extended framework, and considers capital flight other than merely financial contagion. The outcomes show that, compared to the literature, the extended framework can be deemed more verified to the Brexit case. Empirically, with the UK being the shock-originating economy and the sterling value plummeting on the US dollar, there exist contagions to some other major currencies as well as a flight to quality, particularly to the yen, probably suggesting diversification benefits. When the correlation coefficients are time-conditional, or depend more on more recent data, the evidence shows fewer contagions and flights since the political uncertainty in question disappeared gradually over time. After relevant interest rates were partialled out, some previous statistical contagion and flight occurrences became less significant or even insignificant, possibly due to the significant impacts of the interest rates on the corresponding currency correlations. The portfolio analysis in this dissertation (Chapter 2) examines financial contagion and capital flight implied by portfolio reallocations through mean-variance portfolio analysis, and builds on the correlation analysis in Chapter 1. In the correlation analysis, correlations are bivariate, whereas in the portfolio analysis they are multivariate and the risk-return tradeoff is also vitally involved. Portfolio risk minimization and reward-to-risk maximization are the two analytical cases of portfolio optimality taken into consideration. Robust portfolio optimizations, using shrinkage estimations and newly proposed risk-based weight constraints, are also applied. The evidence demonstrates that the portfolio analysis outcomes regarding currency contagions and flights, implying diversification benefits, vary and are noticeably dissimilar from the correlation analysis outcomes of Chapter 1. Subsequently, it could be inferred that the diversification benefits deduced from the portfolio and correlation analyses differ owing to the dominance, during market uncertainty, of the behaviors of the means and (co)variances of all the shock-originating and shock-receiving returns, over the behaviors of just bivariate correlations between the shock-originating and shock-receiving returns. Moreover, corrections of the heteroskedasticity bias inherent in the shock-originating returns, overall, do not have an effect on currency portfolio rebalancing. Additionally, hedging demands could be implied from detected structural portfolio reallocations, probably as a result of variance-covariance shocks rising from Brexit.