<p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att diskutera det så kallade equity premium puzzle. Jag</p><p>analyserar teoretiskt den intertemporala konsumtionsbaserade CAPM (C-CAPM),</p><p>sammanställer en del av litteraturdiskussionen som finns på området samt empiriskt</p><p>testar C-CAPM på svensk data. Fenomenet equity premium puzzle innebär att</p><p>överavkastningen på aktier är så stor att det inte stämmer med den ekonomiska teorin.</p><p>Enligt teorin beror C-CAPMs riskpremie på kovariansen mellan konsumtionen och</p><p>aktieavkastningen. Litteraturen visar att forskare inte har lyckats förklara equity</p><p>premium puzzle genom att ändra antagandena i grundmodellen. Den empiriska</p><p>undersökningen visar att equity premium puzzle även uppkommer på svensk data.</p>

Syftet med uppsatsen är att diskutera det så kallade equity premium puzzle. Jag analyserar teoretiskt den intertemporala konsumtionsbaserade CAPM (C-CAPM), sammanställer en del av litteraturdiskussionen som finns på området samt empiriskt testar C-CAPM på svensk data. Fenomenet equity premium puzzle innebär att överavkastningen på aktier är så stor att det inte stämmer med den ekonomiska teorin. Enligt teorin beror C-CAPMs riskpremie på kovariansen mellan konsumtionen och aktieavkastningen. Litteraturen visar att forskare inte har lyckats förklara equity premium puzzle genom att ändra antagandena i grundmodellen. Den empiriska undersökningen visar att equity premium puzzle även uppkommer på svensk data.

This thesis contributes to the literature on the consumption-portfolio choice under uncertainty and is motivated by several empirical failures of the standard consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). This canonical model has proven disappointing empirically and has even been questioned whether it is theoretically valuable and practically useful even if it is in some sense the only model we have. The frustration is due to that the model performs no better in practice and generates some well-known consumption puzzles and asset pricing puzzles. The purpose of the thesis is to reexamine these puzzles and then to resolve them. After the debate of Hansen and Singleton (1983) and Hall (1988), the estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) of consumption in a representative agent model have not resulted in any consensus. Based on this observation, the first chapter of this thesis is focused on resolving the elasticity puzzle or the unresponsiveness to interest rates. We propose a new theoretical and empirical perspective on the relationship between consumption growth and asset returns. In the spirit of Hansen and Singleton (1983), we demonstrate that observed growth rate of consumption responds not only to a specific asset return but also to other asset returns. Empirically, US postwar quarterly data are used to fit the regression model derived in the chapter, and the sample period is 1953Q2-2001Q2. Empirical results show that the EIS is greater than 0.1, the maximum value considered possible by Hall (1988). Accordingly, we argue that there is no elasticity puzzle in the standard representative agent model. The second chapter provides an explanation for the puzzle of excess sensitivity of consumption to expected income proposed by Flavin (1981). We exploit consumer's superior information (i.e., windfalls in investments and in income) to integrate the consumption Euler equations into a generalized Euler equation. The implications emerging from the equation can refute much of the empirical evidence against the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). In short, we conclude that consumption growth is sensitive to windfalls in income, but not to expected income. Thus, Friedman's prescient insight is being formally corroborated in standard utility theory. The equation also provides an alternative approach permitting one more precisely to estimate the preference parameters and much easier to identify the time-series properties of labor income. Empirical results based on U.S. postwar quarterly data show that the EIS is significantly positive and the labor income should follow a nonstationary second-order autoregressive process. The last chapter of the thesis, chapter three, attempts to address the equity premium puzzle, proposed by Mehra and Prescott (1985), and the risk-free rate puzzle, proposed by Weil (1989). These two asset pricing puzzles have troubled financial economists for nearly two decades. To date, there is still no convincing solution for the equity premium puzzle. The CCAPM is apparently inconsistent with the data, especially the annual data in the 1889-1978 period used by Mehra and Prescott (1985). This has led many economists to question whether the model should be abandoned. The purpose of the chapter is to resolve the two puzzles, and then to consolidate the Lucas-Breeden paradigm embedded in the standard CCAPM. We demonstrate that the equity premium puzzle is resulted from the gaps between the expected asset returns and the actual ones. These gaps have conventionally been regarded as regression disturbances, and explained as good luck or unexpected windfalls. We introduce an alternative way that, using other good luck to explain a given good luck, can help fill in the specific gap. Results of numerical calculations and parametric estimation show that, the gap has been significantly narrowed down and hence the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles are successfully resolved.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are recognised as important for the economic success of countries all over the world because of their contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), to innovation, to export revenue, to the provision of goods and services to society and large enterprises, to social stability, to employment creation, and to the improvement of economic welfare. These organisations operate within an economic environment characterised by volatility, highly demanding dynamism and tough competition, which often seriously threaten their performance and their survival. The South African business environment in general is constantly changing in the face of an unreceptive economic environment and a subtle political setting which breeds a highly competitive market. For SMEs to withstand the hazards of such a precarious and unfavourable competitive climate, they need to engage in market-oriented strategies. While market orientation research in large organisations has been studied etensively, little attention has been paid to the market orientation of SMEs. Market orientation models have been developed and tested only for developed countries, which recognise the substantial importance of market orientation in the modern business arena. Despite its importance, market orientation and its implementation and relationship with business performance has not been widely researched in developing economies. This need for a market orientation model that is applicable to developing countries underlies this research, the principal purpose of which is to develop a market orientation–business performance conceptual model and test it in a developing country setting. For this purpose, the researcher applied the market orientation constructs as guided by various proponents in the field. Market orientation was identified from the large body of literature and a conceptual framework of market orientation–business performance was proposed. The conceptual framework considered barriers to market orientation, determinants and enablers of market orientation and market orientation with its dimensions (customer emphasis, information generation, intelligence dissemination and intelligence responsiveness or taking action) and economic and non-economic performance as consequences. This framework was then tested in order to identify the link between barriers to market orientation, determinants of market orientation, overall market orientation and business performance. Such efforts have been observed in previous market orientation literature but those studies did not distinguish barriers from determinants. The objective of this study was to establish the relationship between market orientation and the performance of SMEs measured by financial and non-financial measures of business performance. It also sought to ascertain the barriers to market orientation and the determinants/enablers of market orientation and their relationship with market orientation. Another objective was to examine the extent to which SMEs in South Africa have adopted market-oriented practices. A quantitative method was used. Surveys were conducted with 273 SMEs respondents, which were identified using a convenience sampling method. Data from owners/managers of these SMEs were collected using structured questionnaires. This study is different from previous studies on various grounds. Firstly, this study on market orientation is particularly focused on SMEs. Secondly, this study considered barriers to market orientation and determinants of market orientation separately, as having two divergent effects on market orientation. Thirdly, this study considered both the economic and non-economic performance measures as business performance indicators, factorising all the dimensions and modelling the relationship structures. Finally, this study was conducted in a developing economy (South Africa) where limited market orientation studies have been carried out with emphasis on market orientation among SMEs. Quantitative research methods were used to arrive at a valid and convergent conclusion about market orientation and its relationship with business performance. For this purpose, quantitative survey data were obtained from officials of both marketing and non-marketing departments of SMEs in the Vaal Triangle (South Africa). The hypotheses of the study were tested using t-tests statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation modelling (SEM) goodness of fit. The findings of the study supported the hypotheses of the study and confirmed the applicability of the proposed market orientation framework. The findings also indicated that the market orientation of SMEs in South Africa is determined by four fundamental factors (top management emphasis, market-based reward system, inter-departmental connectedness and management risk posture). In addition, the findings identified four key barriers to market orientation (centralisation and formalisation, inter-departmental conflict, competitive intensity and turbulence). The study also found a significant effect of market orientation on business performance. The findings of this study are consistent with those of previous market orientation studies undertaken in developed countries. At the final stage, the first conceptual model of market orientation–business performance applicable to SMEs in a developing country (South Africa) was offered on the basis of the findings of this study. This conceptual model provides insights and groundwork for further research. Therefore, in order to verify its generic application, it is hoped that this model will be used as a starting point for further studies and be tested in other countries in the world, both developed and developing. / PhD (Business Management)|cNorth-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus|d2013

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are recognised as important for the economic success of countries all over the world because of their contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), to innovation, to export revenue, to the provision of goods and services to society and large enterprises, to social stability, to employment creation, and to the improvement of economic welfare. These organisations operate within an economic environment characterised by volatility, highly demanding dynamism and tough competition, which often seriously threaten their performance and their survival. The South African business environment in general is constantly changing in the face of an unreceptive economic environment and a subtle political setting which breeds a highly competitive market. For SMEs to withstand the hazards of such a precarious and unfavourable competitive climate, they need to engage in market-oriented strategies. While market orientation research in large organisations has been studied etensively, little attention has been paid to the market orientation of SMEs. Market orientation models have been developed and tested only for developed countries, which recognise the substantial importance of market orientation in the modern business arena. Despite its importance, market orientation and its implementation and relationship with business performance has not been widely researched in developing economies. This need for a market orientation model that is applicable to developing countries underlies this research, the principal purpose of which is to develop a market orientation–business performance conceptual model and test it in a developing country setting. For this purpose, the researcher applied the market orientation constructs as guided by various proponents in the field. Market orientation was identified from the large body of literature and a conceptual framework of market orientation–business performance was proposed. The conceptual framework considered barriers to market orientation, determinants and enablers of market orientation and market orientation with its dimensions (customer emphasis, information generation, intelligence dissemination and intelligence responsiveness or taking action) and economic and non-economic performance as consequences. This framework was then tested in order to identify the link between barriers to market orientation, determinants of market orientation, overall market orientation and business performance. Such efforts have been observed in previous market orientation literature but those studies did not distinguish barriers from determinants. The objective of this study was to establish the relationship between market orientation and the performance of SMEs measured by financial and non-financial measures of business performance. It also sought to ascertain the barriers to market orientation and the determinants/enablers of market orientation and their relationship with market orientation. Another objective was to examine the extent to which SMEs in South Africa have adopted market-oriented practices. A quantitative method was used. Surveys were conducted with 273 SMEs respondents, which were identified using a convenience sampling method. Data from owners/managers of these SMEs were collected using structured questionnaires. This study is different from previous studies on various grounds. Firstly, this study on market orientation is particularly focused on SMEs. Secondly, this study considered barriers to market orientation and determinants of market orientation separately, as having two divergent effects on market orientation. Thirdly, this study considered both the economic and non-economic performance measures as business performance indicators, factorising all the dimensions and modelling the relationship structures. Finally, this study was conducted in a developing economy (South Africa) where limited market orientation studies have been carried out with emphasis on market orientation among SMEs. Quantitative research methods were used to arrive at a valid and convergent conclusion about market orientation and its relationship with business performance. For this purpose, quantitative survey data were obtained from officials of both marketing and non-marketing departments of SMEs in the Vaal Triangle (South Africa). The hypotheses of the study were tested using t-tests statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation modelling (SEM) goodness of fit. The findings of the study supported the hypotheses of the study and confirmed the applicability of the proposed market orientation framework. The findings also indicated that the market orientation of SMEs in South Africa is determined by four fundamental factors (top management emphasis, market-based reward system, inter-departmental connectedness and management risk posture). In addition, the findings identified four key barriers to market orientation (centralisation and formalisation, inter-departmental conflict, competitive intensity and turbulence). The study also found a significant effect of market orientation on business performance. The findings of this study are consistent with those of previous market orientation studies undertaken in developed countries. At the final stage, the first conceptual model of market orientation–business performance applicable to SMEs in a developing country (South Africa) was offered on the basis of the findings of this study. This conceptual model provides insights and groundwork for further research. Therefore, in order to verify its generic application, it is hoped that this model will be used as a starting point for further studies and be tested in other countries in the world, both developed and developing. / PhD (Business Management)|cNorth-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus|d2013

Thesis Variants of determining the risk free rate in the business valuation is dedicated to the issue of estimating risk free rate for the calculation of the discount rate. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the influence of methods to estimate the risk free rate to business valuation based on the example of a selected company valuation. The first part is dedicated to the cost of equity, cost of debt and weighted average cost of capital. Next chapter focuses on the definition of risk-free interest rate and rating as an indicator of credit risk. The thesis also deals with theoretical methods for estimating the risk-free interest rate and their practical application. Values calculated on the basis of theoretical approaches are then applied in the calculation of the discount rate to calculate the present value of the cash flows of company.

I propose a rare disaster model of an economy where the probability and intensity of climatic disasters are proxied by CO2 levels that are determined by inputs of carbons from the firms in the economy. Disasters affect the budgets, the labor allocations and investment decisions of households; the production and investment decisions of firms; and, monetary policy. Six propositions are developed relating carbon dioxide and climatic economic damages to financial variables: the risk-free rate, the price dividend ratio, and the risk premium. The six propositions are tested empirically using a unique data set for the United States over the period from March 1958 to December 2018. The data support the six propositions. For the strongest results, the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are negatively related in the long run to the risk-free rate. Carbon dioxide levels are positively related to the risk premium in the long run.

Bakgrund: Marknadens riskpremie kan förklaras som den förväntade avkastning en investerare kräver för att acceptera en viss risk. Hur riskpremien skall bestämmas har stått i fokus för omfattande debatter de senaste åren men fortfarande har ingen ultimat lösning infunnit sig. Det finns två huvudsakliga tillvägagångssätt för att uppskatta riskpremien. Det ena att använda historisk data över aktieutvecklingen och därefter förvänta sig att en framtida utveckling kommer att vara likvärdig. Den andra är att göra uppskattningar av den framtida utvecklingen, så som framtida utdelningar, framtida vinster, BNP och inflation och därifrån göra en uppskattning utav riskpremien. Att använda sig av historiska värden har tidigare varit en accepterad metod både i den akademiska och finansiella värden men då den på senare tid har mötts av omfattande kritik, har modeller baserade på uppskattningar av framtiden vuxit sig starkare. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att ge en djupgående beskrivning av hur svenska finansiella företag uppskattar och hanterar riskpremium för den svenska aktiemarknaden. Därigenom fanns en avsikt att studera vilken metod som främst användes, hur viktigt riskpremium i form av ett investeringsinstrument var, och morgondagens betydelse av riskpremium. Metod: Författarna använde sig av en kvalitativ metod, där det empiriska materialet samlades in med hjälp av personliga intervjuer. Intervjufrågor av öppen karaktär skickades ut till respondenterna i förväg, och intervjuerna ägde därefter rum i Stockholm och Göteborg. I den teoretiska referensramen användes både så kallad primär och sekundär litteratur för att kunna redogöra en övergripande bild av problemområdet. Den primära litteraturen, som framförallt ligger till grund för kapitel tre, sågs extra viktig att inkludera då den möjliggjorde en minskad subjektivitet som annars hade riskerat att belasta uppsatsen. Resultat: Resultaten visade en varierad syn mellan respondenterna där vissa ansåg att riskpremien hade ringa betydelse och andra att det var en mycket viktig variabel. Överlag fanns det dock ett ökat intresse de senaste åren. Även val av metod varierade och vare sig historisk data eller framtida uppskattningar kunde sägas ha ett övertag bland användarna. Avslutningsvis såg författarna ett ökat intresse för de ingående variablerna i modeller som baseras på framtida förväntade värden och kunde därav visa att den framtida debatten sannolikt kommer att behandla vilka variabler som bör inkluderas i denna typ av modeller och hur de bör uppskattas.

<p>Bakgrund: Marknadens riskpremie kan förklaras som den förväntade avkastning en investerare kräver för att acceptera en viss risk. Hur riskpremien skall bestämmas har stått i fokus för omfattande debatter de senaste åren men fortfarande har ingen ultimat lösning infunnit sig. Det finns två huvudsakliga tillvägagångssätt för att uppskatta riskpremien. Det ena att använda historisk data över aktieutvecklingen och därefter förvänta sig att en framtida utveckling kommer att vara likvärdig. Den andra är att göra uppskattningar av den framtida utvecklingen, så som framtida utdelningar, framtida vinster, BNP och inflation och därifrån göra en uppskattning utav riskpremien. Att använda sig av historiska värden har tidigare varit en accepterad metod både i den akademiska och finansiella värden men då den på senare tid har mötts av omfattande kritik, har modeller baserade på uppskattningar av framtiden vuxit sig starkare.</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att ge en djupgående beskrivning av hur svenska finansiella företag uppskattar och hanterar riskpremium för den svenska aktiemarknaden. Därigenom fanns en avsikt att studera vilken metod som främst användes, hur viktigt riskpremium i form av ett investeringsinstrument var, och morgondagens betydelse av riskpremium.</p><p>Metod: Författarna använde sig av en kvalitativ metod, där det empiriska materialet samlades in med hjälp av personliga intervjuer. Intervjufrågor av öppen karaktär skickades ut till respondenterna i förväg, och intervjuerna ägde därefter rum i Stockholm och Göteborg. I den teoretiska referensramen användes både så kallad primär och sekundär litteratur för att kunna redogöra en övergripande bild av problemområdet. Den primära litteraturen, som framförallt ligger till grund för kapitel tre, sågs extra viktig att inkludera då den möjliggjorde en minskad subjektivitet som annars hade riskerat att belasta uppsatsen.</p><p>Resultat: Resultaten visade en varierad syn mellan respondenterna där vissa ansåg att riskpremien hade ringa betydelse och andra att det var en mycket viktig variabel. Överlag fanns det dock ett ökat intresse de senaste åren. Även val av metod varierade och vare sig historisk data eller framtida uppskattningar kunde sägas ha ett övertag bland användarna. Avslutningsvis såg författarna ett ökat intresse för de ingående variablerna i modeller som baseras på framtida förväntade värden och kunde därav visa att den framtida debatten sannolikt kommer att behandla vilka variabler som bör inkluderas i denna typ av modeller och hur de bör uppskattas.</p>

El presente trabajo de investigación analiza el estado del arte de los ajustes y adaptaciones que se han impuesto al modelo Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) para habilitar su aplicabilidad en mercados emergentes, con el fin de valorar correctamente los activos financieros y estimar la rentabilidad esperada en función del riesgo, es justo mencionar que, desde la publicación del modelo han surgido constantes críticas que lo califican de ineficaz en mercados emergentes, basándose particularmente en que, el modelo representa el riesgo a través de una sola variable que es medida por el riesgo sistemático y que fue originalmente diseñada para mercados desarrollados; en tal sentido, se han presentado propuestas de diversos especialistas que con sus teorías recomiendan ajustar el beta o ponderarlo, otras propuestas sugieren incluir variables como el diferencial de crédito, riesgo país y lambda, con lo que sostienen que es significativamente importante la necesidad de tener que adecuar el modelo a mercados emergentes caracterizados particularmente por ser riesgosos y tener alta volatilidad debido a los constantes cambios en sus variables económicos y financieros. / The following research analyzes the state of the art of the adjustments and adaptations imposed on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in order to enable its applicability on emerging markets, with the aim to value properly financial assets as well as estimate the expected profitability depending on the risk, It is fair to mention that, since the publication of the model, there has been severe criticism on its effectiveness for emerging markets, based on the fact that, the model displays the risk through a single variable that is measured by the systematic risk and that was originally designed for developed markets; in this sense, several proposals have been introduced by specialists suggesting wiht his theories to either adjust the Beta or weighted it, and other proposals suggest including variables such as credit spread, country risk and lambda, with which they maintain that it would be of the utmost importance to adapt the model to emerging markets, particularly characterized for being risky and have feature high volatility due to the constant fluctuations both in their economic and financial variables. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional