The Emission Trading Scheme for green house gases is a key tool of European climate protection. Including the road transport sector might be a promising strategy to limit its CO2 emissions. This could be realized within a common market (trans-sectoral trading permitted) or separated markets (trans-sectoral trading not permitted). Starting from different assumptions on emission reduction objectives, the impact of both options is analyzed using a quantitative model. Although an emission trading scheme is ecologically effective regardless of the trading model, it turns out that CO2 emissions and emission allowance prices differ strongly between both design options due to sector specific price elasticities of allowance demand. (authors' abstract)

Changing lake conditions due to cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have prompted inconsistent and evolving management and recreational use of Southern Illinois University’s Campus Lake. The objective of this study was to address the need for understanding lake-user demographics, CyanoHAB and Campus Lake perception, and support for potential Campus Lake programs. I accomplish this by implementing and summarizing Lake-User and Student Questionnaires, applying an Experience Use History (EUH) method to categorize respondents, and utilizing university resources to understand the effects of environmental variables on perception of Campus Lake. Respondent demographics fit typical leisure participation, where most lake users were encountered walking/jogging. Students participating in the Campus Lake Sustainable Eco-Recreation program self-report a higher familiarity with lake water quality and CyanoHABs than non-participants. There was little evidence of Nature Deficit Disorder, and no difference in support for hypothetical management action options based on this factor. Backwards stepwise regression analysis of stated choice management action support for two hypothetical lake management plans resulted in a proscriptive outcome. EUH results modeled expected sociodemographic characteristics, and Beginners showed support for increasing recreation activity to support hypothetical lake management. Perceptions of Campus Lake water quality status were best correlated with visible algal growth, Temperature-Heat-Solar radiation-Wind index, and mean prior 24 hr relative humidity variables. This Campus Lake survey should be used to diversify lake accessibility and recreation programs targeted towards minority and special interest groups. Surveying of natural resource user perceptions, especially in the case of shifting quality, is a valuable tool to monitor and capitalize on public interest.

Esta dissertação discute as questões de acesso terrestre a aeroportos. Em particular, estima a influência do fator de variabilidade do tempo de viagem na escolha modal de acesso terrestre ao Aeroporto Internacional André Franco Montoro, em Guarulhos, Região Metropolitana da Cidade de São Paulo (RMSP). Para isso, foi aplicada uma pesquisa de preferência declarada com 108 viajantes aéreos, realizada nas salas de embarque do referido aeroporto. Foram entrevistados apenas residentes da RMSP e predominantemente viajantes aéreos internacionais. Foram coletados também dados revelados: dados do indivíduo, do acesso terrestre realizado e da sua viagem aérea. Para a coleta dos dados de preferência declarada foi elaborado um experimento fatorial ortogonal de escolha. Cada indivíduo era questionado a proceder à ordenação de conjuntos de 4 alternativas, uma para cada modo considerado: automóvel, táxi e o serviço de ônibus existente, e um novo serviço proposto, um trem expresso ligando o aeroporto ao centro da cidade de São Paulo. As alternativas foram descritas pelos atributos de custo, tempo de viagem médio e variabilidade do tempo de viagem, expressa através de uma margem de segurança. Todos os atributos foram apresentados em 3 níveis. Com os dados coletados foram estimados modelos do tipo Logit Multinomial para diversos segmentos da amostra, estratificados por motivo de viagem (lazer ou trabalho), gênero, modo utilizado no acesso (carro ou táxi) e freqüência de viagens aéreas (alta ou baixa). Foram estimados modelos estatisticamente significativos para o segmento dos homens que viajaram nas sextas-feiras e para o segmento dos homens que utilizaram táxi no acesso ao aeroporto. Para estes casos, os coeficientes de margem de segurança e custo foram significativos, permitindo a estimação do valor de se melhorar a confiabilidade do tempo de viagem. A metodologia empregada neste trabalho pode ser estendida para incluir os outros segmentos dos usuários do aeroporto e permite uma melhor estimação da demanda para o trem expresso proposto. / The dissertation discusses and analyzes issues relating to ground access to airports, focusing on the importance of travel time reliability on the choice of transport mode for access to the André Franco Montoro International Airport of São Paulo, in Guarulhos. A stated preference survey was conducted with 108 air travelers waiting for departure at the André Franco Montoro Airport. Passengers interviewed had to be residents of the Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo; most individuals in the sample were traveling to international destinations. Revealed preference data about the trip to the airport as well as data about the air travel and other passenger attributes were collected. The stated preference survey was based on an orthogonal factorial design choice experiment. Each individual was asked to perform a ranking exercise on sets of 4 alternatives, one for each of the modes considered: auto, taxi and the existing bus service, and a new proposed express train linking the airport to the central area of São Paulo. Attributes describing each mode were cost, average travel time and a measure of travel time reliability, expressed as a safety margin, all factors presented in three levels. Multinomial Logit Models were estimated for several segments of the sample, stratified by purpose (leisure or work), gender, access mode (auto or taxi) and frequency of air travel (high or low). In general, average travel time and travel time reliability (safety margin) could not be jointly included in the models. Models segmented by trip purpose, gender or trip frequency did not present significant coefficients for safety margin or cost attributes. Valid and interesting models were estimated for the segment of men traveling on Fridays and for men using taxi as the access mode to the airport. In these cases, safety margin and travel cost coefficients were significant, allowing the estimation of the value of improving reliability of travel time. The methodology applied can be extended to include other segments of airport users and improve demand estimation for the proposed airport express train.

With theoretical foundations in welfare theory, the cost benefit analysis (CBA) technique is a powerful tool for assessing benefits particularly where markets do not exist or would fail (for example due to the existence of public goods) or have become potentially politically excluded (such as the health sector). Unlike other economic evaluation techniques, costs and benefits are measured in monetary terms allowing for comparisons within and between different sectors of the economy for resource allocation decisions. Using contingent valuation (CV) techniques, people's preferences for goods are determined by finding out what they would be willing to pay (WTP) for specified benefits or improvements; or accept (WTA), as compensation for withdrawal or loss of benefit. While the use of WTP methods has grown in other sectors, the uptake in health has been limited. A long-standing criticism is that stated WTP estimates may be poor indicators of actual WTP, calling into question their validity and the use of such estimates for welfare valuation. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the criterion validity of CV-WTP studies. A four-pronged approach including critical appraisals of the available literature and evidence on criterion validity and empirical analyses was adopted. The thesis established the scarcity in criterion validity assessments, particularly in the health sector and that evidence on the criterion validity of CV-WTP is more varied than authors are presenting. The variety in the methods used to assess and report criterion validity assessments is demonstrated. Further, the impact of the analysis of hypothetical WTP on criterion validity assessments and conclusions thereof is demonstrated. The empirical analyses further demonstrate the differences in predictions and predictors of WTP analyses, discussing the effect of these on criterion validity assessments and conclusions. Finally, the thesis offers suggestions for the reporting of criterion validity assessments, in efforts to improve the method.

<p>The aim of the thesis is twofold: to analyze the effects of the expectations on the Bothnia Line on the housing market and expectations on railway use. To fulfill these aims, three questions are considered:</p><p>1. To what extent is property prices influenced by the expected effects of the Bothnia Line?</p><p>2. Are there differences in expectations on regional development and future journeys between residents in different locations and with different individual characteristics?</p><p>3. How are trips to work affected by the expectations on the Bothnia Line and the performance of the train service according to residents in different locations?</p><p>Property prices are investigated quantitatively with data delivered from Lantmäteriet. The data contains every sold property from 1994 to 2001 in the municipalities of Umeå, Nordmaling, and Örnsköldsvik. Expectations on regional development and future traveling on the Bothnia Line were investigated with two questionnaires conducted in the autumn of 2002.</p><p>The empirical results from the study of property prices are clear. There are no signs of influence from the Bothnia Line on the property prices close to the railway stations or in the proximity of the railway.</p><p>The empirical results from the questionnaires reveal a mixed picture of the expectations. In the municipalities located furthest away from the railway, the expectations are low. On the contrary, a large proportion (>75 %) of the residents in municipalities along the railway line believe it can be useful for the population in general when searching for new employment opportunities. This is especially true for males living in Örnsköldsvik. A significantly smaller proportion (≈25 %) believes they will use the railway themselves.</p><p>One explanation to the geographic variations is that they are a result from an ongoing diffusion process. Residents in Örnsköldsvik were the first ones to have a visual image of the railway since the construction started there. As the construction continues, the expectations might increase in other locations as well. Another possibility is that people only react on word of mouth from someone that actually made a trip before they consider changing the mode of transport. If that is the case, the expectations will increase only after the opening of the railway line.</p><p>With the exception of residents in Nordmaling, expectations on future journeys with the Bothnia Line are low. The low expectations on journeys on the Bothnia Line might be explained by the lack of attraction between the places along the line. They are satisfied with their present situation and cannot find any rationale to consider other alternatives. It is a different story if they are forced to consider other alternatives. The result from a stated preference study shows that if they are offered employment at another place, the majority is willing to commute.</p>

The road network is extremely valuable. Road Administrationsare expected to invest maintenance funding in a way thatreturns maximum benefit to road users. Cost-benefit analysis isone method to ensure that an adequate return in terms ofbenefits results from committing expenditure. Today,cost-benefit calculations are frequently used as a base fordecision making of investments. The surges for such methods inthe maintenance management sector are increasing. Up to the present, one reason for not analysing costs andbenefits for various maintenance management measures has beenthe lack of knowledge about comfort benefits for road users inquantitative monetary terms. The aim with this thesis is toinvestigate motorists’apprehension of pavementmaintenance management and winter maintenance operations. Thefinal goal is to find out their willingness to pay fordifferent levels of road maintenance management. Those valuescan later be used in cost-benefit calculations and also ineffect models of road maintenance management. Due to the pioneer status of this study, focus groups andin-depth interviews as well as a number of pilot studies havebeen carried out before a main survey with stated choiceexperiments could be designed. These exploratory studies showedthat the interviewees were familiar with the types of roadsurface damage that exist and in many cases mastered the sameterminology as the Road Administration and others. Showingpictures of well-known types of road damage lead to highermonetary valuations of getting better road standard incomparison with just text descriptions. One reason for thatcould be the requisite severness of the damage in order toillustrate a certain road maintenance shortage. The respondentswith the text descriptions could have stated their preferencesfor an, in their own minds, average shortcoming while the groupwith access to photograph of road damage all saw the samesevere damage. Illustrations of different road maintenancestandards make it possible to control the respondentsinterpretation of the maintenance management standard valuatedbut could lead to high monetary estimations. Driving comfort was very important to the interviewees inthe exploratory studies. That was manifested in the pilotstated choice surveys, which resulted in high willingness topay for better pavement management. The main study consisted of two surveys; the first one wasabout pavement maintenance management and was carried out inOctober to November 2000 and the second one took place inFebruary to March 2001 and was about winter maintenanceoperations. Both the pavement and the winter survey includedattitude questions and two stated choice experiments. Theresult showed that the maintenance management status of theroad network was important to car users. For example, the worstpavement damage was roughness; the motorists were willing topay 1.7 SEK (Swedish Crowns) per kilometre to avoid roadsdamaged in their full length. The least harmful damage of thosestudied was cracks; the willingness to pay to avoid that was0.5 SEK per kilometre. For more rapid snow clearance, the carusers were willing to pay 60 to 80 SEK per year for getting theroads cleared from snow one hour earlier than the currentstandard implies. The willingness to pay for driving on bareroads in comparison with snow roads was 0.4 SEK per kilometre.Statistical tests on the models showed that the parametervalueswere well estimated. In the pavement as well as in the winter survey, a clustergroup analysis was performed in order to test the heterogeneityof attitudes and behaviour to road maintenance management. Theanalysis resulted in two separate groups in each survey. Onegroup consisted of drivers who reported to be very influencedby the level of maintenance management regarding chosen speed,joy of driving and so on. The other group reported to be lessinfluenced and had lower acceptance of higher road tax for thepurpose to increase the maintenance management standard.Separate stated choice models revealed that the differences inattitudes could also reflect the respondents’willingnessto pay for higher road maintenance standard. However, thedifferences were only small and the different groups’monetary valuations were not found to be significantlydifferent from each other. The result of this study, better knowledge aboutmotorists’apprehension of maintenance management, theirattitudes to driving comfort and road standard and theirmonetary valuations of different levels of pavement maintenanceand winter maintenance operations, opens up the possibility tomake cost-benefit analysis of various maintenance managementprojects. The impact of the monetary values found in this studyhas been studied in a limited cost-benefit analysis. <b>Keywords:</b>stated choice, stated preference, valuationsof maintenance management, driving comfort, road standardevaluation

The aim of the thesis is twofold: to analyze the effects of the expectations on the Bothnia Line on the housing market and expectations on railway use. To fulfill these aims, three questions are considered: 1. To what extent is property prices influenced by the expected effects of the Bothnia Line? 2. Are there differences in expectations on regional development and future journeys between residents in different locations and with different individual characteristics? 3. How are trips to work affected by the expectations on the Bothnia Line and the performance of the train service according to residents in different locations? Property prices are investigated quantitatively with data delivered from Lantmäteriet. The data contains every sold property from 1994 to 2001 in the municipalities of Umeå, Nordmaling, and Örnsköldsvik. Expectations on regional development and future traveling on the Bothnia Line were investigated with two questionnaires conducted in the autumn of 2002. The empirical results from the study of property prices are clear. There are no signs of influence from the Bothnia Line on the property prices close to the railway stations or in the proximity of the railway. The empirical results from the questionnaires reveal a mixed picture of the expectations. In the municipalities located furthest away from the railway, the expectations are low. On the contrary, a large proportion (&gt;75 %) of the residents in municipalities along the railway line believe it can be useful for the population in general when searching for new employment opportunities. This is especially true for males living in Örnsköldsvik. A significantly smaller proportion (≈25 %) believes they will use the railway themselves. One explanation to the geographic variations is that they are a result from an ongoing diffusion process. Residents in Örnsköldsvik were the first ones to have a visual image of the railway since the construction started there. As the construction continues, the expectations might increase in other locations as well. Another possibility is that people only react on word of mouth from someone that actually made a trip before they consider changing the mode of transport. If that is the case, the expectations will increase only after the opening of the railway line. With the exception of residents in Nordmaling, expectations on future journeys with the Bothnia Line are low. The low expectations on journeys on the Bothnia Line might be explained by the lack of attraction between the places along the line. They are satisfied with their present situation and cannot find any rationale to consider other alternatives. It is a different story if they are forced to consider other alternatives. The result from a stated preference study shows that if they are offered employment at another place, the majority is willing to commute.

High-speed passenger rail is seen by many in the U.S. transportation policy and planning communities as an ideal solution for fast, safe, and resource-efficient mobility in high-demand intercity corridors. To expand the body of knowledge for high-speed intercity passenger rail in the U.S., the overall goal of this dissertation was to better understand the demand for high-speed intercity passenger rail services in small- or medium-sized intermediate communities and improve planners' ability to estimate such demand through traveler surveys; specifically, the use of different experimental designs for stated preference questions and the use of images to describe hypothetical travel alternatives in traveler surveys. In pursuit of this goal, an Internet-based survey was distributed to residents of Waco and Temple, two communities located along the federally-designated South Central High-Speed Rail Corridor in Central Texas. A total of 1,160 surveys were obtained from residents of the two communities. Mixed logit travel mode choice models developed from the survey data revealed valuable findings that can inform demand estimates and the design of traveler surveys for high-speed intercity passenger rail planning activities. Based on the analysis presented in this dissertation, ridership estimates for new high-speed intercity passenger rail lines that are planned to serve intermediate communities should not assume that residents of these communities have similar characteristics and values. The d-efficient stated preference experimental design was found to provide a mode choice model with a better fit and greater significance on key policy variables than the adaptive design and therefore is recommended for use in future surveys. Finally, it is recommended that surveys should consider the use of images of proposed train services to aid respondent decision-making for stated preference questions, but only if the images used in the survey depict equipment that could be realistically deployed in the corridor.

This study assessed the desirability for High-Occupancy/Toll (HOT) lanes in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) through stated preference and revealed traffic volume data gathering and analysis techniques. 4,000 surveys, distributed in five sample areas, asked respondents how much they would be willing to pay to escape congestion in eight unique trip conditions. Stated preference results found considerable public support for HOT-lanes in the GTA. In six out of eight trip conditions, a majority of respondents preferred to pay to travel in express lanes rather than endure congestion. Respondent willingness to pay (WTP) mean values varied considerably by trip condition. Willingness to pay to escape congestion was influenced by trip characteristics and driver factors. Trip urgency, traffic speed, and freeway trip distance were found to be statistically significant trip characteristic indicators of WTP. Previous exposure to electronic tolling and annual household income were found to be significant driver factor indicators of WTP in most trip conditions. Respondent gender and freeway travel frequency were found to be statistically significant driver factor indicators of WTP in some trip conditions. The presence of Hwy 407-ETR, an electronically tolled by-pass to Hwy 401, allowed for an examination of the effects of Hwy 401 volume and trip urgency on driver choice to use the tolled alternative. Results indicated that trip urgency and Hwy 401 volume were correlated with Hwy 407 throughput share. During periods of high trip urgency and high Hwy 401 volume, a substantial proportion of Hwy 401/407 corridor drivers chose to pay approximately $0.20/km to escape congestion.

This study assessed the desirability for High-Occupancy/Toll (HOT) lanes in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) through stated preference and revealed traffic volume data gathering and analysis techniques. 4,000 surveys, distributed in five sample areas, asked respondents how much they would be willing to pay to escape congestion in eight unique trip conditions. Stated preference results found considerable public support for HOT-lanes in the GTA. In six out of eight trip conditions, a majority of respondents preferred to pay to travel in express lanes rather than endure congestion. Respondent willingness to pay (WTP) mean values varied considerably by trip condition. Willingness to pay to escape congestion was influenced by trip characteristics and driver factors. Trip urgency, traffic speed, and freeway trip distance were found to be statistically significant trip characteristic indicators of WTP. Previous exposure to electronic tolling and annual household income were found to be significant driver factor indicators of WTP in most trip conditions. Respondent gender and freeway travel frequency were found to be statistically significant driver factor indicators of WTP in some trip conditions. The presence of Hwy 407-ETR, an electronically tolled by-pass to Hwy 401, allowed for an examination of the effects of Hwy 401 volume and trip urgency on driver choice to use the tolled alternative. Results indicated that trip urgency and Hwy 401 volume were correlated with Hwy 407 throughput share. During periods of high trip urgency and high Hwy 401 volume, a substantial proportion of Hwy 401/407 corridor drivers chose to pay approximately $0.20/km to escape congestion.