Estacionamentos dissuasórios são locais destinados a transferência de um modo de transporte de baixa capacidade, automóvel, para um modo de transporte de alta capacidade. A principal vantagem do uso do estacionamento dissuasório, em relação às demais medidas de gerenciamento de demanda, é a manutenção da flexibilidade, associada às viagens de automóvel, no trecho inicial da viagem. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a demanda para um modo combinado de transporte composto por automóvel, estacionamento dissuasório e transporte público, obtida pela atração de viagens atualmente realizadas em automóvel. É proposto um método de previsão de demanda baseado em quatro etapas dentre as quais estão a modelagem das viagens de automóvel, que fornecerá os dados necessários para as etapas posteriores, e a aplicação de um modelo Logit para previsão da divisão modal. O método foi aplicado a um estudo de caso que consiste na construção de três estacionamentos dissuasórios, ao longo do trajeto de uma linha de transporte público atendida por BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), na cidade de Porto Alegre. Os resultados permitiram avaliar a influência dos atributos, descritivos de cada modo de transporte, na escolha do modo de viagem pelo usuário e identificar o percentual de transferência de viagens para o modo combinado, em nível agregado, considerando o total de viagens, e em nível desagregado através da análise por zonas de origem e destino das viagens. O método foi considerado adequado e os resultados foram coerentes com a literatura. / Park and rides are places to transfer from one low capacity mode of transport, car for example, to a high capacity transportation mode. The main advantage of using park and rides, when comparing to other policies of demand management, is to maintain flexibility, related to traveling by car, in the first stage of the journey. This study aims to analize the demand for a combinated transport mode composed for car, park and ride and public transport, obtained by the attraction of trips currently made by car. In this work, a method based on four steps is proposed for demand analize, and among them are the modeling of car trips, which will provide the necessary data for the subsequent stages, and the implementation of a Logit model for predicting the modal split. The method was applied to a case study, which consists in the construction of three park and rides along the route of a public transport line served by a BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), in Porto Alegre. The results allowed to evaluate the influence of the attributes that describe each mode of transport in the user’s trips mode choices and to identify the percentage of transfer of trips to the combined mode, in an aggregated level, considering the total travel, and in a disaggregated level by analyzing the origins and destination zones. The method was considered appropriated and the results were similar to the literature.

Today’s logistics practices are moving from inventory-based push supply chains to replenishment-based pull supply chains, leading to a lower and less centralized inventory, smaller shipment sizes, and more just-in-time deliveries. As a result, industries are now demanding greater reliability in freight transportation. Delays and uncertainty in freight transportation translate directly into additional inventory, higher manufacturing costs, less economic competitiveness for businesses, and higher costs of goods that are being passed on to the consumers. Given the growing demand in freight transportation, the emerging needs to better understand freight behavior for better policy and investment decisions, and the increasing role of reliability in freight transportation, this research aims at providing a) better understanding of how the freight system users value travel time reliability in their transportation decisions, and b) advanced methods in quantifying the user’s willingness to pay for the improvement of transportation related attributes, particularly travel time reliability. To understand how the freight industry values travel time reliability in their transportation decisions, and particularly the presence of user heterogeneity, this research designed and conducted a stated preference (SP) survey for freight users in road transportation. Based on the feedback received during the pilot stage, reliability was measured as the standard deviation of travel time and presented as a frequency of on-time and late delivery in the choice scenarios. The survey collected 1,226 responses from 159 firms in Florida between January and May 2016 via online and paper methods. Various modeling approaches were explored to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) measures among freight users, including multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit model. Market segmentation and interaction modeling techniques were employed to investigate preference variations among user groups, commodity groups, product type, and various other shipment characteristics, including shipping distance and weight. In general, across all groups in the sample, values of $37.00 per shipment-hour ($1.53 per ton-hour) for travel time savings and $55.00 per shipment-hour ($3.81 per ton- hour) for improvements of reliability were found in this research. Furthermore, while investigating the effects of shipping characteristics on the user’s preference in WTP, the results suggested that shipping distance and weight were the two most important variables. The results of the study help advance the understanding of the impact of the performance of transportation systems on freight transportation, which will lead to policy and investment decisions that better serve the needs of the freight community.

Thesis (Master of Marketing)--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2019 / This thesis sought to investigate students’ preferences regarding university accommodation. The object was to identify the aspects and elements of housing that students deemed most desirable. The research also aimed to ascertain which socio-demographic variables might serve as predictors of preference in student housing. The thesis focused on student housing at a university in Cape Town, South Africa. The researcher adopted a stated preference approach, applying direct measurement and conjoint analysis methods to answer the research questions. The study commenced with qualitative exploratory research, including a literature review and focus group interviews with students. This was followed by collection of cross-sectional quantitative data using person-administered, structured questionnaires distributed among students at the university. SPSS software was used to analyse a total of 457 completed questionnaires. The direct measurement results indicated that most students prioritised convenience, safety, cost and privacy when it came to choosing accommodation. The three most important attributes as ranked by respondents were having unlimited free WiFi, the inclusion of a 24-hour computer lab in the building, and 24-hour on-site security. In addition, respondents favoured the presence of a convenience shop/kiosk in the residence, followed by sharing showers with students of their own gender, and being within walking distance of campus. Preferences for some but not all the dimensions of accommodation appeared to be influenced by gender, age group and study level. When indicating their willingness to pay (WTP) for a variety of elements relating to accommodation, it emerged that the question of sharing the space in their room – their living and learning space – was very important to the students. The results showed that, apart from having unlimited WiFi and 24-hour on-site security, the aspects for which respondents were prepared to pay most concerned the private space of the individual, e.g. room privacy and room size, as well as having their own toilet and shower. WTP attributes also varied among students according to age group, gender and level of study. Results from the stated preference (conjoint) experiment analysis showed that students were most sensitive about the sharing of ablutions and number of roommates, strongly preferring private rooms and facilities, or sharing with fewer other students. Monthly rent is next most influential, followed by distance from campus. The model also showed significant differences in the preferences of students based on their gender. Research in this field is overdue because, owing to recent increases in the tertiary student population in South Africa, there is a growing shortage of student accommodation. Current and future student housing needs must be assessed, and any such assessment requires a thorough grasp of current student accommodation preferences. The results of this research thus contribute to the knowledge and understanding available to managers and developers of student accommodation regarding students’ requirements and preferences. The findings can serve as a set of guidelines for developers of student housing and as a foundation for formulating associated marketing strategies. Despite the existence of extensive research on student housing, few studies have focused on the preferences of students in developing countries, and even fewer in South Africa. This research seeks to fill this gap by increasing awareness and understanding of students’ preferences with regard to university accommodation.

This manuscript reports on an exploration of whether shade provision is valued by urban users of cycling infrastructure. A description of the elicitation process has been outlined in order to build a general but detailed analysis of the different stages included in the exercise of attribute elicitation. As a departure point, a thorough literature review was conducted in order to establish a state of the art’s scenario. Different kinds of attributes that have been evaluated previously within discrete choice experiments and other relatable methods linked to bicycle commuting and bike route choices were compiled, however, shade appeared as an overlooked attribute. From this, a theoretical and methodological approach based on welfare economics and, the concept of willingness to pay as an indicator of shade provision’s value is proposed for the context of Neiva, Colombia, a medium size city in a developing country. Preliminary focus groups were conducted to build a surveying tool for eliciting the proposed attribute and gathered more contextual information. Finally, a pilot survey was launched in order to test the perceived value of shade and its importance for commuters. Special attention is devoted to the description of how the tools and methods were used in order to help future efforts. Several sets of data and information were reviewed and contrasted in order to build an accurate image of the current status of shade within the local commuters’ minds, what barriers were found while executing the research plan, and what can be some important implications for future urban planning studies and sustainable mobility research. Several different commuting conditions and individual realities were found, nonetheless, the existence of valuing shade provision was pervasive across all the surveyed university students and graduated staff. Furthermore, the benefits were perceived as socially broad, even by motorized, non-walking, and cycling commuters. Other valuable insights were found, like the effect of corruption when asking for policy implementation, further research needs to be conducted due to sampling limitations, the scarcity of previous research aimed at the subject, and for gathering more information about how acknowledging the attribute might be potentially critical for the future.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24217号 / 工博第5045号 / 新制||工||1788(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 山田 忠史, 教授 藤井 聡, 准教授 SCHMOECKER Jan-Dirk / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relation between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward potential policies and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s household-fleet evolution. Results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are vehicle purchase price, type/class, and fuel economy (with 30%, 21% and 19% of respondents placing these in their top three). Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would seriously consider purchasing a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6,000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings. 25-year simulations suggest that 19% of Austin’s vehicle fleet could be comprised of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs under adoption of a feebate policy (along with PHEV availability in Year 1 of the simulation, and current gas prices throughout). Under all scenarios vehicle usage levels (in total vehicle miles traveled [VMT]) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (per household, and per capita); and a feebate policy is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 4.43 percent, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO2 emissions only slightly (by 3.8 percent, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 17% and CO2 emissions by 22% (relative to trend). Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. And HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent a major share of the fleet’s VMT (25%) by year 25 under the feebate scenario. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet), yet feebate-policy receipts exceed rebates in each simulation year. A 15% reduction in the usage levels of SUVs, CUVs and minivans is observed in the $5/gallon scenario (relative to trend). Mean use levels per vehicle of HEVs and PHEVs are simulated to have a variation of 753 and 495 across scenarios. In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have even more significant effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. / text

Esta dissertação baseia-se na aplicação de um procedimento empírico envolvendo técnicas de preferência declarada para a estimativa do valor do tempo de viagem de motoristas em deslocamentos regionais, em um contexto de escolha entre rotas pedagiadas e não pedagiadas. Inicialmente é feita uma revisão das abordagens teórica e empírica sobre a valoração do tempo. São também revistos os conceitos básicos de outros dois elementos fundamentais na metodologia aqui utilizada: a teoria da escolha e técnicas de preferência declarada. Uma aplicação a um estudo de caso específico é feita usando informações coletadas em ampla pesquisa de preferência declarada, realizada em 2005 com motoristas de automóvel em diversos pontos da malha rodoviária do estado de São Paulo. O desenho experimental da preferência declarada envolvia três atributos: tempo de viagem por uma rota pedagiada, custo tarifário e tempo de viagem por uma rota não pedagiada. O conjunto das informações foi analisado e utilizado na obtenção de modelos de escolha discreta do tipo logit multinomial; os valores do tempo de viagem foram obtidos a partir dos coeficientes estimados em funções de utilidade aditivas e lineares nos parâmetros. Analisou-se também a variação do valor do tempo em função de características do motorista e da viagem, questão abordada através da estimação de diferentes modelos por segmentos da amostra e da especificação de funções de utilidade que incorporam variáveis dummies para representação das características analisadas. Os resultados indicaram, para a escolha específica estudada, valores de tempo médios de cerca de R$ 16/h, variando de R$12/h a R$23/h para diferentes segmentos de viajantes analisados. A duração da viagem foi uma importante característica associada a variações no valor do tempo, que decresceu na medida em que as durações aumentaram. Variações expressivas no valor do tempo de viagem foram também observadas para viagens a lazer, motoristas de renda familiar baixa e aqueles com alta posse de veículos. / This dissertation is based on the application of an empirical procedure using stated preference techniques for the estimation of the value of travel time for drivers in regional trips, in the context of a choice between tolled and non-tolled routes. It first reviews the theoretical and the empirical approaches for the valuation of travel time and then presents the basic concepts of two other topics relevant for the methodology adopted: choice theory and stated preference methods. An application to a specific case study is then presented, using information from a stated preference survey conducted in 2005 with a large sample of car drivers intercepted at several points in the highway network of the state of São Paulo. The stated preference experimental design considered three attributes: trip time on a tolled route, value of toll and trip time on a non-tolled route. Survey data were analyzed and used for the estimation of discrete choice (multinomial logit) models; values of travel time were derived from estimates of coefficients of an additive linear in the parameters utility function. The specification of the models and the segmentation of the sample allowed the estimation of the variation of travel time according to some selected driver and trip characteristics. Results indicated, for the specific choice context analyzed, an average value of travel time of approximately R$16/h, varying from about R$12/h to R$23/h for different segments of travelers. Trip length was an important characteristic influencing the variation of the value of travel time, which declined as trip length increased. Other important effects were found for leisure trips, for travelers with low income and for those with high family car ownership.