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When we try to understand why some schools perform worse than others, if Covid-19 has struck harder on some demographics or whether income correlates with increased happiness, we may turn to regression to better understand how these variables are correlated. To capture the true relationship between variables we may use variable selection methods in order to ensure that the variables which have an actual effect have been included in the model. Choosing the right model for variable selection is vital. Without it there is a risk of including variables which have little to do with the dependent variable or excluding variables that are important. Failing to capture the true effects would paint a picture disconnected from reality and it would also give a false impression of what reality really looks like. To mitigate this risk a simulation study has been conducted to find out what variable selection algorithms to apply in order to make more accurate inference. The different algorithms being tested are stepwise regression, backward elimination and lasso regression. Lasso performed worst when applied to a small sample but performed best when applied to larger samples. Backward elimination and stepwise regression had very similar results.

Dental karies är det mest förekommande patologiska tillståndet i världen. Om kariessjukdomen inte behandlas i tid kan det äventyra pulpans vitalitet. En behandlingsmetod som används i syfte att undvika endodontisk behandling är stegvis kariesexkavering (SCR), men vissa SCR-behandlingar kommer inte lyckas och dessa tänder kommer behöva endodontisk behandling vid ett senare tillfälle.
Syfte: Att undersöka överlevnaden för behandlingen stegvis kariesexkavering utförd inom allmän- och privattandvården, genom att analysera över tid. 
Material och metod: Denna retrospektiva studie analyserade longitudinella data från nationella kvalitetsregistret SKaPa (Svenskt Kvalitetsregister för Karies och Parodontit). Datan (n= 15 330) bestod av alla tänder registrerade med SCR-behandling under året 2013 och analyserad upp till 58 månader. Registrering med åtgärdskoder som utgjorde endodontisk behandling eller extraktioner, definierades som misslyckanden. Datamaterialet analyserades med Kaplan-Meiers statistiska test för estimering av överlevnadstiden utefter deskriptiv statistik. 
Resultat: Materialet inkluderade 15 330 behandlingsfall, med registrerade efterföljande besök till år 2017. Efter bortfall kunde 12 444 fall analyseras. Åldern varierade mellan 18–96 år (medelvärde 43 år) och en tand per individ inkluderades. Efter en 4 års uppföljningsperiod 72% (n=8 957) tänder hade inga registreringar på endodontisk behandling eller extraktion.
Konklusion: Studien påvisar en hög lyckandefrekvens för registreringar av stegvis kariesexkavering i en 4-års uppföljningsperiod i svensk allmän- och privattandvårdskliniker. Behandlingens lyckande är åldersberoende och statistiskt signifikant. / Dental caries is the most prevalent pathologic condition in the world. If left untreated, it can endanger the vitality of the pulp. A treatment method aiming at avoiding endodontic treatment is stepwise caries removal (SCR), however some SCR-treatments will not succeed and these teeth will need endodontic treatment at a later stage.
Aim: To investigate survival of SCR-treatment in public and private dentistry settings by time aspect.
Material and method: This retrospective registry study used longitudinal data from the national quality registry SKaPa (Swedish Quality Registry for Caries and Periodontal Diseases). The sample (n=15 330) consisted of all teeth registered with SCR-treatment during the year 2013 and analysed up to 58 months. Registration of intervention-codes that represented endodontic treatments or extractions were defined as failures. The data was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier statistical test to estimate survival time along with descriptive statistics. 
Results: The material consisted of 15 330 treatment cases, with registered subsequent visits to the year 2017. Due to lost cases, 12 444 cases could be analysed. Age ranged between 18–96 years (mean 43 years) and one tooth per individual were included. After a 4-year follow-up period 72% (n=8 957) teeth had no registrations of endodontic treatments or extractions.
Conclusion: This study shows a high success rate for stepwise caries removal registrations in 4-years follow-up in Swedish public and private dentistry settings. The success of this treatment is dependent on the age, which is statistically significant.

O padrão espacial de ocorrência de atributos de espécies florestais, tal como a área basal das árvores, pode fornecer informações para o entendimento da estrutura da comunidade vegetal. Uma vez que fatores ambientais podem influenciar tanto o padrão espacial de ocorrência quanto os atributos das espécies em florestas nativas. Desse modo, investigar a relação entre as características ambientais e o padrão espacial de espécies florestais pode ajudar a entender a dinâmica das florestas. Especificamente, neste trabalho, o objetivo é avaliar métodos estatísticos que permitam identificar quais atributos do solo são capazes de explicar a variação da área basal de cada espécie de árvore. A área basal foi considerada como variável resposta e como covariáveis, um grande número de atributos físicos e químicos do solo, medidos em uma malha de localizações cobrindo a área de estudo. Foram revisados e utilizados os métodos de regressão linear múltipla com método de seleção stepwise, modelos aditivos generalizados e árvores de regressão. Em uma segunda fase das análises, adicionou-se um efeito espacial aos modelos, com o intuito de verificar se havia ainda padrões na variabilidade, não capturados pelos modelos. Com isso, foram considerados os modelos autoregressivo simultâneo, condicional autoregressivo e geoestatístico. Dado o grande número de atributos do solo, as análises foram também conduzidas utilizando-se as covariáveis originais, fatores identificados em uma análise fatorial prévia dos atributos de solo. A seleção de modelos com melhor ajuste foi utilizada para identificar os atributos de solo relevantes, bem como a presença e melhor descrição de padrões espaciais. A área de estudo foi a Estação Ecológica de Assis, da Unidade de Conservação do Estado de São Paulo em parcelas permanentes, dentro do projeto \"Diversidade, Dinâmica e Conservação em Florestas do Estado de São Paulo: 40 ha de parcelas permanentes\", do programa Biota da FAPESP. As análises reportadas aqui se referem à área basal das espécies Copaifera langsdorffii, Vochysia tucanorum e Xylopia aromatica. Com os atributos de solo reduzidos e consistentemente associados à área basal, a declividade, altitude, saturação por alumínio e potássio mostraram-se relevantes para duas das espécies. Resultados obtidos mostraram a presença de um padrão na variabilidade, mesmo levando-se em consideração os efeitos das covariáveis, ou seja, os atributos do solo explicam parcialmente a variabilidade da área basal, mas existe um padrão que ocorre no espaço que não é capturado por essas covariáveis. / The spatial pattern of occurrenceis of forest species and their attributes, such as the basal area of trees, can provide information for understanding the structure of the vegetable community. Considering the environmental factors can influence the spatial pattern of occurrences of species in native forests and related attributes, describing relationship between environmental characteristics and spatial pattern of forest species can be associated with the dynamics of forests. The objective of the present study is to assess different statistical methods used to identify which soil attributes are associated with the basal area of each tree selected species. The basal area was considered as the response variable and the covariates are given by a large number of physical and chemical attributes of the soil, measured at a grid of locations covering the study area. The methods considered are the multiple linear regression with stepwise model selection, generalized additive models and regression trees. Spatial effects were added to the models, in order to ascertain whether there is residual spatial patterns not captured by the covariates. Thus, simultaneous autoregressive model, autoregressive conditional and geostatistical were considered. Considering the large number of soil attributes, analysis were were conducted both ways, using the original covariates, and using factors identified in a preliminar factor analysis of the soil attributes. Model selection was used to identify the relevant attributes of soil as well as the presence and better description of spatial patterns. The study area was the Ecological Station of Assis, the Conservation Unit of the State of São Paulo in permanent plots within the \"Diversity Dynamics and Conservation Forests in the State of São Paulo: 40 ha of permanent plots\" project, under the research project FAPESP biota. The analyzes reported here refer to the basal area of the species Copaifera langsdorffii, Vochysia tucanorum and Xylopia aromatica. Results differ among the considered methods reinforcing the reccomendation of considering differing modeling strategies. Covariates consistently associated with basal area are slope, altitude and aluminum saturation, potassium, relevant to at least two of the species. Results obtained showed the presence of patterns in residual variability, even taking into account the effects of covariates. The soil characteristics only partially explain the variability of the basal area and there are spatial patterns not captured by these covariates.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this study was to characterize Maclura tinctoria individuals in anthropic secondary formations, as their growth aspects in diameter and basal area, their morphometric relationships, spatial distribution and crown regularity. Also analyzing the behavior of individuals with more than one trunk, called multitrunks, and establish regression models to estimate basal area increment, crown diameter and height. For this, they were measured in two distinct areas in Porto Mauá, RS, diameter at breast height, total height, crown diameter and punctual density of each individual (using Bitterlich method). The morphometric indices were calculated based on data obtained from the field. The regularity of the crown was obtained by the coefficient of variation of the crown rays. For spatial analysis was calculated K Ripley function. The annual periodic increment in diameter (IPAd) and basal area (IPAg) were obtained by analysis of growth rings. In order to verify if these variables influence increments, Pearson correlation analysis was performed. It was developed mathematical equations, the stepwise method to estimate the increment in basal area, crown diameter and total height. The tendency of multitrunks individuals in relation to the single-stem for all variables was verified using analysis of covariance. The multitrunks trees in general show a similar tendency to the trees with a single stem. The studied species have moderate growth to fast, presenting therefore great potential for management. The spatial distribution indicated groupings to a higher range to 15 meters. Morphometric indices varied widely, demonstrating the plasticity of the species. As the variation in crown rays was extensive, featuring its irregularity. The morphometric variables, did not exert significant influence on the increment in diameter of Maclura tinctoria individuals. This indicates that the growth in diameter is statistically the same regardless of tree form. However, the degree of slenderness and comprehensiveness index correlated with the periodic increment in basal area. It was possible to define equations with good settings for height, crown diameter and increment in basal area of the species. All the elaborate equations had dbh as dependent variable, indicating the strong correlation of this variable with the other characteristics of trees Maclura tinctoria. / O objetivo do presente trabalho foi caracterizar indivíduos de Maclura tinctoria em formações secundárias antropizadas, quanto a seus aspectos de crescimento em diâmetro e área basal, suas relações morfométricas, distribuição espacial e regularidade da copa. Além de analisar o comportamento de indivíduos com mais de um fuste, denominados multitroncos, e ainda elaborar modelos de regressão para estimar o crescimento em área basal, diâmetro de copa e altura. Para isso, foram medidos, em duas áreas distintas em Porto Mauá, RS, o diâmetro à altura do peito, altura total, diâmetro de copa e densidade pontual (pelo método de Bitterlich) de cada indivíduo. Os índices morfométricos foram calculados com base nos dados obtidos à campo. A regularidade da copa foi obtida através do coeficiente de variação dos raios de copa. Para análise espacial calculou-se a função K de Ripley. O incremento periódico anual em diâmetro (IPAd) e em área basal (IPAg) foram obtidos por análise dos anéis de crescimento. A fim de verificar que variáveis influenciam nestes incrementos, foi realizada análise de correlação de Pearson. Elaborou-se equações matemáticas, pelo método stepwise, para estimar o incremento em área basal, diâmetro de copa e altura total. A tendência dos indivíduos multitroncos em relação aos com fuste único para todas as variáveis foi verificada utilizando análise de covariância. As árvores multitroncos no geral demonstram tendência semelhante às árvores com fuste único. A espécie estudada possui crescimento moderado à rápido, apresentando, portanto, grande potencial para manejo. A distribuição espacial indicou agrupamentos para uma escala superior a 15 metros. Os índices morfométricos variaram amplamente, demonstrando a plasticidade da espécie. Assim como a variação nos raios de copa foi ampla, caracterizando sua irregularidade. As variáveis morfométricas, não exerceram influência significativa no incremento em diâmetro dos indivíduos de Maclura tinctoria. O que indica que o crescimento em diâmetro é estatisticamente o mesmo, independente da forma da árvore. Contudo, o grau de esbeltez e índice de abrangência apresentaram correlação com o incremento periódico em área basal. Foi possível definir equações com bons ajustes para a altura, diâmetro de copa e incremento em área basal da espécie. Todas as equações elaboradas tiveram como variável dependente o DAP, indicando a forte correlação desta variável com as demais características das árvores de Maclura tinctoria.

O padrão espacial de ocorrência de atributos de espécies florestais, tal como a área basal das árvores, pode fornecer informações para o entendimento da estrutura da comunidade vegetal. Uma vez que fatores ambientais podem influenciar tanto o padrão espacial de ocorrência quanto os atributos das espécies em florestas nativas. Desse modo, investigar a relação entre as características ambientais e o padrão espacial de espécies florestais pode ajudar a entender a dinâmica das florestas. Especificamente, neste trabalho, o objetivo é avaliar métodos estatísticos que permitam identificar quais atributos do solo são capazes de explicar a variação da área basal de cada espécie de árvore. A área basal foi considerada como variável resposta e como covariáveis, um grande número de atributos físicos e químicos do solo, medidos em uma malha de localizações cobrindo a área de estudo. Foram revisados e utilizados os métodos de regressão linear múltipla com método de seleção stepwise, modelos aditivos generalizados e árvores de regressão. Em uma segunda fase das análises, adicionou-se um efeito espacial aos modelos, com o intuito de verificar se havia ainda padrões na variabilidade, não capturados pelos modelos. Com isso, foram considerados os modelos autoregressivo simultâneo, condicional autoregressivo e geoestatístico. Dado o grande número de atributos do solo, as análises foram também conduzidas utilizando-se as covariáveis originais, fatores identificados em uma análise fatorial prévia dos atributos de solo. A seleção de modelos com melhor ajuste foi utilizada para identificar os atributos de solo relevantes, bem como a presença e melhor descrição de padrões espaciais. A área de estudo foi a Estação Ecológica de Assis, da Unidade de Conservação do Estado de São Paulo em parcelas permanentes, dentro do projeto \"Diversidade, Dinâmica e Conservação em Florestas do Estado de São Paulo: 40 ha de parcelas permanentes\", do programa Biota da FAPESP. As análises reportadas aqui se referem à área basal das espécies Copaifera langsdorffii, Vochysia tucanorum e Xylopia aromatica. Com os atributos de solo reduzidos e consistentemente associados à área basal, a declividade, altitude, saturação por alumínio e potássio mostraram-se relevantes para duas das espécies. Resultados obtidos mostraram a presença de um padrão na variabilidade, mesmo levando-se em consideração os efeitos das covariáveis, ou seja, os atributos do solo explicam parcialmente a variabilidade da área basal, mas existe um padrão que ocorre no espaço que não é capturado por essas covariáveis. / The spatial pattern of occurrenceis of forest species and their attributes, such as the basal area of trees, can provide information for understanding the structure of the vegetable community. Considering the environmental factors can influence the spatial pattern of occurrences of species in native forests and related attributes, describing relationship between environmental characteristics and spatial pattern of forest species can be associated with the dynamics of forests. The objective of the present study is to assess different statistical methods used to identify which soil attributes are associated with the basal area of each tree selected species. The basal area was considered as the response variable and the covariates are given by a large number of physical and chemical attributes of the soil, measured at a grid of locations covering the study area. The methods considered are the multiple linear regression with stepwise model selection, generalized additive models and regression trees. Spatial effects were added to the models, in order to ascertain whether there is residual spatial patterns not captured by the covariates. Thus, simultaneous autoregressive model, autoregressive conditional and geostatistical were considered. Considering the large number of soil attributes, analysis were were conducted both ways, using the original covariates, and using factors identified in a preliminar factor analysis of the soil attributes. Model selection was used to identify the relevant attributes of soil as well as the presence and better description of spatial patterns. The study area was the Ecological Station of Assis, the Conservation Unit of the State of São Paulo in permanent plots within the \"Diversity Dynamics and Conservation Forests in the State of São Paulo: 40 ha of permanent plots\" project, under the research project FAPESP biota. The analyzes reported here refer to the basal area of the species Copaifera langsdorffii, Vochysia tucanorum and Xylopia aromatica. Results differ among the considered methods reinforcing the reccomendation of considering differing modeling strategies. Covariates consistently associated with basal area are slope, altitude and aluminum saturation, potassium, relevant to at least two of the species. Results obtained showed the presence of patterns in residual variability, even taking into account the effects of covariates. The soil characteristics only partially explain the variability of the basal area and there are spatial patterns not captured by these covariates.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:22:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-08-27Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:49:27Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_mr_me_ilha.pdf: 2058535 bytes, checksum: 046bcb6196cc4909e675190cc0e21275 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O estudo da confiabilidade operacional de equipamentos se tornou fundamental para as empresas possuírem o devido controle dos seus ativos, tanto pelo lado financeiro quanto em questões de segurança. O estudo da taxa de falha de equipamentos prevê quando as falhas irão ocorrer possibilitando estabelecer atitudes preventivas, porém, seu estudo deve ser realizado em condições de operação estabelecidas e fixas. Os medidores de energia elétrica, parte do ativo financeiro das concessionárias de energia, são equipamentos utilizados em diversas condições de operação, tanto nas condições do fluxo de energia, tais como presenças de harmônicos, subtensões, sobre-tensões e padrões de consumo distintos, quanto pelo local físico de instalação, tais como maresia, temperatura, umidade, etc. As falhas nos medidores eletromecânicos de energia elétrica são de difícil constatação uma vez que a maioria dos erros de medição, ocasionados principalmente por envelhecimento de componentes, não alteram a qualidade da energia fornecida e nem interrompem o seu fornecimento. Neste sentido, este trabalho propõe uma nova metodologia de determinação de falhas em medidores eletromecânicos de energia elétrica ativa. Faz-se uso de banco de dados de uma concessionária de energia elétrica e do processo de descoberta de conhecimento em bases de dados para selecionar as variáveis mais significativas na determinação de falhas em medidores eletromecânicos de energia elétrica ativa, incluindo no conjunto de falhas a operação com erros de medição acima do permitido pela legislação nacional (2010). Duas técnicas de mineração de dados foram utilizadas: regressão stepwise e árvores de decisão. As variáveis obtidas foram utilizadas na construção de um modelo de agrupamento de equipamentos associando a cada grupo uma probabilidade... / The operational reliability study of equipments has become primal in order to enterprises have the righteous control over their assets, both by financial side as by security reasons. The study for the hazard rate of equipments allows to foresee the failures for the equipments and to act preventively, but this study must be accomplished under established and fixed operation conditions. The energy meters, for their part, are equipments utilized in several operating conditions so on the utilization manner, like presence of harmonics, undervoltages and over-voltages and distinct consumption patterns, as on the installation location, like swel, temperature, humidity, etc. Failures in electromechanical Wh-meters are difficult to detect once that the majority of metering errors occurred mainly by aging of components do not change the quality of offered energy neither disrupt its supply. In this context, this work proposes a novel methodology to obtain failure determination for electromechanical Whmeters. It utilizes Wh-databases from an electrical company and of the process of knowledge discovery in databases to specify the most significant variables in determining failures in electromechanical Wh-meters, including in the failure set the operation with metering errors above those permitted by national regulations (2010). Two techniques of data mining were used in this work: stepwise regression and decision trees. The obtained variables were utilized on the construction of a model of clustering similar equipments and the probability of failure of those clusters were determined. As final results, an application in a friendly platform were developed in order to apply the methodology, and a case study was accomplished in order to demonstrate its feasibility.

在使用White的真實性檢定和Stepwise Multiple Test消除資料勘誤的問題之後，有些技術分析確實可以擊敗大盤，在1989到2008，DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, NIKKEI 225, TAIEX這五個指數中。但是在較不成熟的市場或較過去的時間內，我沒辦法找到任何強烈的關係在這些市場與超額報酬間。還有學習策略通常沒辦法獲得比簡單策略更好的表現，代表使用過去最好的策略來預測未來並不是個好主意。我同時還發現在熊市比穩定的牛市更有可能擊敗買進持有的策略。 / In five indices, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, NIKKEI 225, TAIEX, from 1989 to 2008, some technical trading rules indeed can defeat the broad market even after using the White reality check and stepwise multiple test to solve the data snooping problem. But in the markets like less mature ones or the one which was in the older period, I can’t find a strong relation between these markets and the excess return in my research. And the learning strategy usually can’t have a better performance than the simple one, means applying the rule which had a best record to forecast the future may not be a good idea. I also found that it is more likely to beat the buy and hold strategy when there is a bear market but not a steady bull market.

The treatment of deep carious lesions (DCLs) represents a challenge for dentists, as these lesions require removal of dentin in proximity to the pulp that represents a higher risk of ending in pulp exposure. There is increasing evidence supporting minimally invasive caries removal methods, such as stepwise excavation procedure (SWP), instead of non-selective (complete) dentin caries removal for the treatment of DCLs. However, recent research has indicated that dentists have not completely adopted less invasive caries removal methods for the management of DCLs. These studies have been primarily conducted in Europe or South America; thus, few studies have been conducted in the United States to understand dentists’ management options of deep carious lesions in permanent teeth. Additionally, the proportion of dentists who would be willing to adopt less invasive carious tissue removal is unknown, especially in the United States. This dissertation consists of three studies that analyzed the effectiveness of SWP, the factors associated with success, an assessment of its costs and the acceptability of this treatment among U.S dentists. Study I assessed the patient factors predicting a successful SWP by retrospectively investigating a sample from the University of Iowa College of Dentistry from January 2004 through December 2012. Study I showed that SWPs showed a 75% success rate when evaluated within 36 months of the initial treatment. Patients who had a successful SWP treatment were slightly younger than patients whose SWP treatment was not successful. Study II performed a cost-effectiveness analysis by comparing SWP vs. the standard caries treatment (complete caries removal). Study II showed that SWP significantly reduced cost, resulting in an average savings of 64% compared to TCR over a 5-year period. Study III consisted of a statewide survey that contacted 1,434 Iowa dentists with the aim of identifying the most important factors that influence dentists’ decisions for DCLs treatment using conjoint analysis. From the total, 36.4% (n=522) clinicians answered the survey. One of the main study findings was that among the three factors (hardness of dentin, depth of the lesion and patient age) depth of the lesion was the most important factor influencing dentists’s decision when selecting a less invasive caries removal method. Study III did not find any significant association between years of practicing dentistry, type of practice and practice setting regarding being willing to select a less invasive caries removal method. In conclusion, this dissertation has demonstrated that the stepwise caries removal is a cost-saving and highly successful treatment for the management of deep caries lesions. Studies I and II have shown that this method has a high clinical success rate and less long-term treatment costs. Regarding the acceptability of SWP among clinicians, this dissertation has shown that most dentists in Iowa would consider less invasive caries methods for a DCL; however, these techniques have not been completely adopted and accepted among American dentists. Thus, dentists should be trained in less invasive caries methods, given instruction about which criteria they should use to assess a DCL, and provide them with the best evidence-based strategies for managing deep lesions. The findings of this dissertation should engage stakeholders to provide dentists with professional incentives for using these techniques. Specifically, our results support the idea that SWP minimizes costs while providing the appropriate patient care.

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data are unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. Therefore, several Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) methods are applied to the Ceyhan Basin. Dalyrmple (1960) Method is applied as a common RFFA method used in Turkey. Multivariate statistical techniques which are Stepwise and Nonlinear Regression Analysis are also applied to flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations. Rainfall, Perimeter, Length of Main River, Circularity, Relative Relief, Basin Relief, Hmax, Hmin, Hmean and H&Delta / are the simple additional basin characteristics. Moreover, before the analysis started, stations are clustered according to their basin characteristics by using the combination of Ward&rsquo / s and k-means clustering techniques. At the end of the study, the results are compared considering the Root Mean Squared Errors, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and % difference of results. Using additional basin characteristics and making an analysis with multivariate statistical techniques have positive effect for getting accurate results compared to Dalyrmple (1960) Method in Ceyhan Basin. Clustered region data give more accurate results than non-clustered region data. Comparison between clustered region and non-clustered region Q100/Q2.33 reduced variate values for whole region is 3.53, for cluster-2 it is 3.43 and for cluster-3 it is 3.65. This show that clustering has positive effect in the results. Nonlinear Regression Analysis with three clusters give less errors which are 29.54 RMSE and 0.735 Nash-Sutcliffe Index, when compared to other methods in Ceyhan Basin.