Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / The September 11th terrorist attacks triggered an unexpected rapprochement between the United States and the Russian Federation. Russia joined the US-led coalition and supported Operation Enduring Freedom. US-Russian collaboration in Afghanistan surpassed most previous efforts in terms of the level of cooperation attained, especially in traditionally inviolable areas such as intelligence-sharing / however, disagreements over the invasion of Iraq confirmed that the US and Russia have not yet achieved a strategic partnership. This study uses Russia's decisions during the war on terrorism to discover the motives driving Russian foreign policy. Analysts offer three dominant rationales regarding Russia's behavior: 1) the desire to balance US unilateralism, 2) to gain support for "anti-terrorist" action in Chechnya, or 3) to advance the nation's economic interests. Each variable is individually assessed to see if expected gains in that sphere covary with Russia's decision to support and potential losses correlate with Russia's decision to oppose the war on terrorism. The study also reveals the true nature of the US-Russian relationship and exposes challenges and future possibilities for US-Russian relations. The last section makes policy recommendations and suggests how to build a stronger USRussian partnership. / Captain, United States Air Force

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Religious terrorism, as most recently highlighted by the horrendous 9/11 attacks, is not a new phenomenon. It is not restricted to any one particular religion or belief system, nor is it reserved as a weapon against foreign lands. Domestic religious terrorism is just as prevalent throughout history and is brought about by certain converging factors at particularly susceptible times within the society, such as economic difficulties, new or modified technologies, and social uncertainties. Under these conditions, a charismatic leader with an appealing ideology and access to sufficient resources may become a very powerful threat to society, pitting the secular against the divine. This type of convergence may result in altogether new religious movements, or the unexpected growth of fringe groups that, until they act, are not even identified. Examining the historical convergences of the Reformation, First and Second Great Awakenings, and the trends of modern domestic society, we find that the threads which hold these movements together remain consistent throughout history. Enabled by the rapid growth of technology, these groups have unprecedented potential power. A group that decides to become offensive or use weapons of mass destruction, such as Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, may pose an unacceptable risk to our country. / Major, United States Air Force

The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel (Red) is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest (AOI). The difficulty of obtaining adequate interception of the Red depends upon the AOI size, the number of neutral vessels in the AOI, detection and identification capabilities, information retention, and close coordination between the MPA and investigative maritime vessels in various situations. The analysis ultimately provides quantitative guidance on the relative importance of the MIO capabilities. Although the models focus on the MPA operations, the analysis additionally provides various insights and recommendations to other defense components.

Military Psychological Operations (PSYOP) is based on a Cold War construct that has not been significantly overhauled since the end of that era. Today's most pressing challenge, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) requires a different solution set. The Quadrennial Defense Review, the Information Operations Roadmap, the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism and the Report of the 9/11 Commission all recognize this fact. How the military PSYOP community can best adjust to this new environment and effectively address one of its major threats, that of suicide terrorism, is the subject of this paper. I will argue that examining what can, and arguably should, be done to counter the threat of suicide terrorism will also help us to see ways in which PSYOP could better be configured and employed in this new era. The first chapter of my thesis will examine the evolution of suicide terrorism in some detail but will quickly focus on what have emerged as the consensus opinions as to the motivations and vulnerabilities of this tactic. Chapter two looks at the identified motivations and vulnerabilities from a PSYOP perspective and tries to apply logical PSYOP measures against them. In chapter three I review the assets and organizational structure of the PSYOP community and suggest ways the current structure could be best applied to meet the threat. Chapter four then looks for a way ahead and focuses on how and why making three critical changes to military Psychological Operations could improve the organizations ability to accomplish its mission; not only in terms of seeking to mitigate suicide attacks but also with respect a whole host of new and expanded missions the PSYOP community will increasingly be called upon to address in the contemporary operating environment.

This study on terrorism training follows the logic that terrorism is a "wicked problem" and there are various strategies to cope with it. Systems thinking is one of the coping strategies to address "wicked problems." A system is a whole composed of complex organized elements (subsystems) interacting with each other and with their environment. The stability of a system depends on its components' alignment. Misaligning one of its components, will destabilize, or even disrupt the whole system. In this regard, the study defines terrorism and terrorist organizations in systems terms, explains their components and interrelations, and concludes that the most important component of a terrorist system is the training subsystem. Thus it is important to understand how the subsystem functions in order to disrupt the whole system. The study reviews the types of terrorist training, how the terrorists and their organizations learn (process), what the terrorists learn (content), where the terrorists learn (location) and concludes that the internet is the new safe haven for terrorist training. It also demonstrates the adaptive capability of terrorist system moving from land-based to internet-based training. Almost every terrorist organization on the US Sate Department's designated terrorist organizations list exists on the Net. One example is the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) terrorist network. Its website network is analyzed by content and network structure using social network analysis software UCINET. The goal is to develop strategies to eliminate the web presence of the terrorist training subsystem.

Sea piracy has infested the seven seas throughout history. In modern times, the United States has paid little attention to piracy because the nation's isolated vastness has protected the shipping industry from maritime crime. But the events of 9/11 have changed the lens through which America views security. This thesis investigates modern day piracy and links between piracy and terrorism in order to determine implications for U.S. maritime security strategy. Specifically, the maritime environment in Southeast Asia and associated maritime security policies are researched because a sizable proportion of the world's sea piracy occurs in that region. U.S. maritime security policy is also evaluated. / US Navy (USN) author.

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited / Homeland Security Presidential Directive #8 led to the establishment of the National Exercise Program and the Top Officials exercise series to test and evaluate first response agency integration and effectiveness. The last TOPOFF exercise cost $16M and involved over 10,000 people, but did not effectively leverage simulation techniques to make efficient use of resources. This research adapts an existing organizational learning process, integrating low- and high resolution simulation to provide decision support. This process led to the development of a multi-agent simulation methodology for emergency first response, specifically applied to analyze a notional vehicle bomb attack during a festival in the Baltimore Inner Harbor. This simulation demonstrates the potential benefits of low resolution simulation, using efficient experimental design and high-performance computing. Combined, these two ideas result in examining a 48-dimensional response surface and using over 156 CPU centuries of computer time. All experiments were completed in less than three weeks. The analysis of this data set provided insight into several areas, including the importance of standing operating procedures in the early moments of a crisis. Analysis showed that effective procedures may even be more important than the effectiveness of communications devices early in a first response operation. / Outstanding Thesis / US Army (USA) author.

CHDS State/Local / There is widespread consensus among both policymakers and intelligence professionals that domestic counterterrorism efforts remain hampered by the lack of an effective national intelligence network that fully integrates the Homeland's entire intelligence assets and other related Homeland Security capabilities into one national counterterrorism system. The failure to unify our domestic counterterrorism efforts inhibits timely and complete information sharing and the evolution of a more robust Homeland Security prevention and response capacity. To achieve counterterrorism synergy we need a holistic approach that removes the intelligence element from its vacuum and fuses it in the counterterrorism crucible, along with the investigations element and related Homeland Security prevention and response operational elements, in Regional All-Hazards, Disaster and Anti-Terrorism Resource (R.A.D.A.R.) centers. These regional and super-regional R.A.D.A.R. centers can then be united into a National Counterterrorism Network under the auspices of the National Counterterrorism Center and the National Operations Center. Fusing this multi-government level, multi-disciplinary collaboration of intelligence, investigative and operational assets, along with the resources of key private sector groups into one unified organism would eliminate information sharing barriers, and will ensure the most efficient and effective use of Homeland Security resources to prevent and respond to terrorist attacks and natural disasters. / Seattle Police Department (author)civilian.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis investigates the recent world-wide rise in Islamic banking. In doing so it (1) surveys the underlying religious foundation of Islamic finance, (2) examines the attempts of Islamists to use Islamic banking to Islamize societies, and (3) assesses how countries' use of Islamic banking fit into the international economic system. Drawing on this analysis, Islamic banking is finally examined from a national security perspective -- is this form of finance particularly susceptible to miss-use by terrorist groups? Although there are areas in the industry that need regulating and monitoring, this study ultimately concludes that Islamic banking's ties to terrorism are anecdotal, the expansion is the result of oil revenues and personal piety, and that Islamic banking can be leveraged as a means of moderation and enfranchisement when advanced free of an Islamist agenda. / Outstanding Thesis / US Navy (USN) author.

This thesis argues that civilian law enforcement is more effective than military law enforcement against domestic terrorism. It uses a case study approach to analyze government reactions to terrorism in Canada against the FLQ, and in Northern Ireland against the IRA. It concludes that the best approach to domestic terrorism is a combination of civilian and military security forces working together. Within this framework, the military should maintain a support role to the civilian police. As a result, amendment or repeal of the Posse Comitatus Act is unnecessary. As written, the law provides adequate flexibility for government leaders to deploy military troops as the need arises. Furthermore, this thesis provides lessons learned for policymakers considering the deployment of military to combat domestic terrorism. / US Air Force (USAF) author.