Dose assessments produced using the computer code MCNP are important to simulate events that are difficult to recreate experimentally. An emergency scenario involving whole-body skin contamination is one example of such an event. For these scenarios, an anthropomorphic phantom of a 10-year-old male with uniform skin contamination was created and combined with MCNP for dose calculations. Activity on the skin was modeled with gamma-ray sources at energies of 50 keV, 100 keV, 250 keV, 500 keV, 750 keV, 1 MeV, 1.25 MeV, 1.5 MeV, and 2 MeV. The radionuclides 60Co, 137Cs, and 131I were also modeled. The effective dose to the body and major organs was calculated for each scenario. Exposure rate contour lines were also produced around the body. The activity required to result in a dose equal to the legal limit of 0.1 mSv for minors was calculated for each scenario. The highest activity required to produce this limit was from the 50 keV gamma-ray source. This activity was increased by an arbitrary value, approximately tenfold the current value, to represent an emergency scenario. This new activity concentration of 1 mCi per 100 cm2 was used to produce doses for each of the scenarios. The lowest effective dose for the body was 0.82 mSv, produced from the 50 keV source. The highest effective dose was 19.59 mSv, produced from the 2 MeV source. The exposure rates nearest the body were approximately 1.25 R/h, decreasing to100 mR/h approximately 60 cm from the body. The data points were found to be dependent on the energy of the gamma ray. These data can also be improved by deriving solutions previously assumed in this scenario. For example, the skin may be broken down into multiple regions to allow for independent calculations for regional contamination. The activity on the skin can also be derived from air concentration models, allowing for the use of other models to be used in conjunction with this research.

The threat of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) detonation arouses the concern of contaminated victims of all ages. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dose to a uniformly contaminated five-year old male. It also explores the exposure rates surrounding the victim to be used by first receivers to estimate their exposure from the victim. The victim was modeled as an anthropomorphic phantom using the BodyBuilder program. A thin layer of source material was added to the surface of the phantom’s skin to simulate whole-body contamination. The computer code MCNP5 was used to tally the doses to the individual organs of the phantom and create a mesh to generate contour exposure rate lines. Using an activity of 37 GBq m-2, the five-year-old victim received an effective dose 158.23 mSv in one hour. Contour lines were produced that showed the exposure rates around the victims ranging from 0.5 to 10 R/h. The contour exposure-rate contour lines were also generated after the removal of contaminated clothing. Removing the victim’s clothing reduced the exposure rates by eighty percent.

Nuclear weapons proliferation produces a vehement global safety and security concern. Perhaps most threatening is the scenario of a rogue nation or a terrorist organization acquiring nuclear weapons where the conventional ideas of nuclear deterrence may not apply. To combat this threat, innovative tools are needed that will help to improve understanding of the pathways an organization will take in attempting to obtain nuclear weapons and in predicting those pathways based on existing evidence. In this work, a methodology was developed for predicting these pathways. This methodology uses a Bayesian network. An organization’s motivations and key resources are evaluated to produce the prior probability distributions for various pathways. These probability distributions are updated as evidence is added. The methodology is implemented through the use of the commercially available Bayesian network software package, Netica. A few simple scenarios are considered to show that the model’s predictions agree with intuition. These scenarios are also used to explore the model’s strengths and limitations. The model provides a means to measure the relative threat that an organization poses to nuclear proliferation and can identify potential pathways that an organization will likely pursue. Thus, the model can serve to facilitate preventative efforts in nuclear proliferation. The model shows that an organization’s motivations biased the various pathways more than their resources; however, resources had a greater impact on an organization’s overall chance of success. Limitations of this model are that (1) it can not account for deception, (2) it can not account for parallel weapon programs, and (3) the accuracy of the output can only be as good as the user input. This work developed the first, published, quantitative methodology for predicting nuclear proliferation with consideration for how an organization’s motivations impact their pathway probabilities.

Recent terrorist events (e.g., London, Madrid, and Bombay train bombings), as well as the attacks on September 11, 2001, have highlighted the impact casualties can have on domestic audiences. These incidents led to major foreign policy shifts, massive security expenditures, and the removal of an incumbent government (i.e., Spain). Yet, when we compare the number of those killed in terrorist events to those killed in militarized disputes, there are more negative public responses to casualties of terrorism than to militarized disputes. My dissertation examines this “over reaction” by comparing reactions to different casualty contexts. The comparison of casualties across different hostility contexts is a unique contribution to the field. I posit a model in which the characteristics of the casualty event generate emotional reactions. The emotional response affects the way information about the event is processed by individuals, and alters individual’s support of aggressive/non-aggressive foreign policies. Furthermore, my model proposes that different types of negative emotions have different impacts on the process, as well as on the preferences for distinct foreign policies. I expect that different casualty characteristics such as the hostility context (terrorism and militarized disputes) and the characteristics of the targets (number killed and their identity) influence the specific negative emotions experienced by individuals. Thus, variations in these characteristics should alter public preferences for foreign policies. I use a multi-method approach to test my theoretical propositions. First, I utilize experimental methods that introduce different scenarios to the participants. Each scenario varies the casualty characteristics, and measures individual preferences for foreign policies. Second, I compiled a daily event data set that contains both terrorism and militarized dispute casualty statistics and public reaction data for Israel in 1969. This period provides wide variations along the independent variables. My results support the idea that casualty characteristics play a pivotal role in emotional responses to these events as well as in how individuals respond to casualty events. This work is unique in that it examined the role of the number of casualties in conjunction with the context in which they occur and who those casualties are.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Simeral, Robert L. Second Reader: Rollins, John. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: National Security Organization, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), megacommunity, starfish, evolving threats Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-75). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Middle East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Hafez, Mohammad ; Russell, James. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 27, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Deradicalization, Indonesia, Rehabilitation, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Yemen. Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-68). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Tucker, David ; Everton, Sean. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 28, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: targeted killing, assassination, counterterrorism, Second Intifada, al-Aqsa Intifada, irregular warfare, counterinsurgency, Anti-Terrorist Fence, Palestinian-Israeli Conflict. Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-91). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Rollins, John. Second Reader: Petrie, Michael. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Fusion center, privacy policy, civil liberties, information and analysis center, New Hampshire. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-96). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Arquilla, John. Second Reader: Rothstein, Hy. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 29, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: National security, narratives, terrorism. Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-60). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.S.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2002. / Thesis advisor(s): David R. Henderson, William J. Haga. Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-79). Also available online.