Usually people believe that domestic debt in Chinese compare with the GDP is very less, so in this way the government had the ability to issue more treasury bond. So in 1988, when Chinese implement the Rehabilitation of bank balance sheet, in order to write-off state-owned commerce banks system non-performing loan, it uses treasury bond to accumulate capital. Whereas, this kind of implementation does not consider Chinese future financial ability and invisible debt keep soaring, including state-owned enterprises non-performing loan, the debt of the state-owned policy banks. Some scholar also express pessimism, they assume if the government debt continue to increase, this will have a high financial risk resulting in Chinese Economic collapse. So, in calculating the Chinese government debt cause by the state-own financial institution, not only do we consider the figure provided by the Chinese official, but also have to add the Central Government invisible debt. This research is based on time series model in calculating year 2008 Chinese government debt, with Revenue Enhancement, commercial bank behavior and the above two financial policy in making evaluation. Notice: 2008 treasury bond in whatever policy measure is still higher than 60% Basle standard. This implies that in the near future the Chinese will not be able to withstand the huge treasury bond. Simultaneously, this manifest Chinese government debt have been underestimated, and falsely believe it can have the ability to be in the state of solvency, this lead to government continuous issuing of treasury bond. This will hamper the Chinese financial structure. As for the government debt, it only depends on Revenue Enhancement, that is control deficit rate which cannot solve the huge government debt. However, solving the government debt problem, not only with the measure of issuing treasury bond, this will result in raising the debt with the debt. The best method will be to pass resolution in all ways, slowly and steadily in writing off the debt. In this way it can lead Chinese to a Fiscal Sustainability result.

[pt] Investidores aceitam retornos inferiores em ativos que ofereçam liquidez e segurança, sendo tal desconto conhecido como taxa de conveniência. Este estudo utiliza a diferença entre a taxa fixa do swap de juros e a taxa de juros dos títulos do tesouro como medida da taxa de conveniência. Enquanto a literatura comumente foca na análise do referido prêmio especificamente para os Estados Unidos, construo uma estratégica de swap spread para quatro países: Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Brasil e Polônia, sendo os dois primeiros desenvolvidos e os demais emergentes. Os resultados mostram que a taxa de conveniência dos países desenvolvidos analisados é, em média, positiva e atinge valores extremos durante crise financeira, em linha com os demais artigos sobre o assunto. Diferentemente, a taxa dos países emergentes é, na maior parte do período, negativa e assume montantes ainda menores em momentos de estresse, comportando-se, portanto, de forma oposta. Empiricamente, essa diferença entre a taxa de conveniência calculada para os Estados Unidos e para o Brasil é relacionada a medidas de liquidez e de risco, levando à compreensão de que em momentos de estresse financeiro, o tesouro americano sustenta uma taxa de conveniência ainda maior do que a do tesouro brasileiro. / [en] Investors are willing to accept lower returns when investing in assets that provide liquidity and safety. This discount is acknowledged as convenience yield. This study considers the difference between the fixed leg of an interest rate swap and the treasury bond yield as a measure of the convenience yield. While the literature commonly focuses on the analysis of this referred premium for the United States, I construct a swap spread strategy for four countries: United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Poland. The former two are developed countries while the latter are emerging countries. The results show that the convenience yield for the developed countries analyzed is, on average, positive and hits extreme values during financial crisis, in accordance with other papers on this issue. Distinctly, the yield for emerging countries is mostly negative and incurs in even lower amounts at moments of distress, behaving in the opposite way. Empirically, this difference between the convenience yield calculated for the United States and for Brazil is related to measures of liquidity and safety premium, entailing to the understanding that at moments of financial stress, the American treasury sustains an even larger convenience yield when compared to the Brazilian treasury.

<p>The Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO) is the Swedish Government’s financial administration. It has several tasks and the main one is to manage the central government’s debt in a way that minimizes the cost with due regard to risk. The debt management problem is to choose currency composition and maturity profile - a problem made difficult because of the many stochastic factors involved. </p><p>The SNDO has created a simulation model to quantitatively analyze different aspects of this problem by evaluating a set of static strategies in a great number of simulated futures. This approach has a number of drawbacks, which might be handled by using a financial optimization approach based on Stochastic Programming. </p><p>The objective of this master’s thesis is thus to apply financial optimization on the Swedish government’s strategic debt management problem, using the SNDO’s simulation model to generate scenarios, and to evaluate this approach against a set of static strategies in fictitious future macroeconomic developments. </p><p>In this report we describe how the SNDO’s simulation model is used along with a clustering algorithm to form future scenarios, which are then used by an optimization model to find an optimal decision regarding the debt management problem. </p><p>Results of the evaluations show that our optimization approach is expected to have a lower average annual real cost, but with somewhat higher risk, than a set of static comparison strategies in a simulated future. These evaluation results are based on a risk preference set by ourselves, since the government has not expressed its risk preference quantitatively. We also conclude that financial optimization is applicable on the government debt management problem, although some work remains before the method can be incorporated into the strategic work of the SNDO.</p>

The Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO) is the Swedish Government’s financial administration. It has several tasks and the main one is to manage the central government’s debt in a way that minimizes the cost with due regard to risk. The debt management problem is to choose currency composition and maturity profile - a problem made difficult because of the many stochastic factors involved. The SNDO has created a simulation model to quantitatively analyze different aspects of this problem by evaluating a set of static strategies in a great number of simulated futures. This approach has a number of drawbacks, which might be handled by using a financial optimization approach based on Stochastic Programming. The objective of this master’s thesis is thus to apply financial optimization on the Swedish government’s strategic debt management problem, using the SNDO’s simulation model to generate scenarios, and to evaluate this approach against a set of static strategies in fictitious future macroeconomic developments. In this report we describe how the SNDO’s simulation model is used along with a clustering algorithm to form future scenarios, which are then used by an optimization model to find an optimal decision regarding the debt management problem. Results of the evaluations show that our optimization approach is expected to have a lower average annual real cost, but with somewhat higher risk, than a set of static comparison strategies in a simulated future. These evaluation results are based on a risk preference set by ourselves, since the government has not expressed its risk preference quantitatively. We also conclude that financial optimization is applicable on the government debt management problem, although some work remains before the method can be incorporated into the strategic work of the SNDO.

Områdesbeskrivning: IPO-marknaden kan undersökas på olika sätt. Varför underprissättning är så förhärskande, om den går i cykler eller vad det är som påverkar den. Vi vill undersöka den svenska IPO-marknaden under perioden 2006-2020 och om den påverkas av makroekonomiska faktorer såsom inflation eller styrränta. Denna studie är inspirerad av tidigare forskning utförd av Tran och Jeon (2011) som undersöker om det finns samband mellan makroekonomiska faktorer och IPO-marknadens aktivitet på den amerikanska marknaden. Är det så att olika IPO-marknader påverkas av olika faktorer på unika sätt eller är IPO-marknader världen över homogena? Vi försöker dessutom framställa en modell som beskriver det mest gynnsamma förhållandet att genomföra en IPO under om målet är att anskaffa mer kapital. Syfte: Uppsatsen syfte är att undersöka den svenska IPO-marknadens aktivitet under perioden 2006-2020. Samt undersöka i vilken utsträckning den svenska IPO-marknadens aktiviteten påverkas av makroekonomiska faktorer. Med vår undersökning av de makroekonomiska faktorerna som grund kan vi således undersöka vilka makroekonomiska förhållanden som är mest gynnsamma för företag i Sverige att genomföra en IPO under om målet är att anskaffa mer kapital. Metod: En kvantitativ metod appliceras i denna uppsats för att besvara våra forskningsfrågor och datan vi samlar in analyseras med hjälp utav en regressionsanalys. Vi samlar in vårt datamaterial genom att läsa igenom årsredovisningar från de företag som genomfört en IPO under den tidsperioden vi undersöker. Hypoteserna formuleras utifrån tidigare forskning och ämnar att undersöka om de makroekonomiska faktorerna har ett positivt eller negativt samband med IPO-marknadsaktivitet. Resultat: Resultaten som vi finner är att det finns signifikanta samband mellan den svenska IPO-marknadens aktivitet och makroekonomiska faktorer. Vi identifierar ett förhållande som kan beskrivas som det mest gynnsamma makroekonomiska förhållandet utifrån vår modell. Begränsningar: Vår uppsats är begränsad till tidsperiod 2006-2020 samt den svenska IPO-marknaden. På grund av att viss information kring hur mycket kapital ett företag anskaffar vid sin IPO saknas så begränsas vårt urval. / Area description: IPO markets can be studied in different ways. Why underpricing is so prevalent, if the market moves in cycles or what influences the market. We want to study the Swedish IPO market during the period of 2006-2020 and if it is influenced by macroeconomic factors like inflation or the policy rate. This study is influenced by the work done by Tran and Jeon (2011) who examines if there are any relationships between macroeconomic factors and IPO market activity on the American PO market. Is it that different IPO markets are influenced by different factors in unique ways or are the IPO markets around the globe homogeneous. We try to produce a model that describes the most favourable environment to implement an IPO in if the goal is to acquire more capital. Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to examine the activity of the Swedish IPO market during the period 2006-2020 and examine the extent to which the activity of the Swedish IPO market is affected by macroeconomic factors. Based on our study of the macroeconomic factors, we can therefore examine which macroeconomic conditions are most favourable for companies in Sweden to carry out an IPO under the goal of raising more capital.  Method: A quantitative method is applied in this thesis to answer our research questions and the data we collect is analysed with the help of a regression analysis. We collect our data by reading through annual reports from the companies that conducted an IPO during the period we are investigating. The hypotheses are formulated based on previous research and intend to investigate whether the macroeconomic factors have a positive or negative relationship with IPO market activity.  Results: The results we find is that there are significant relationships between the activity of the Swedish IPO market and macroeconomic factors. We identify a ratio that can be described as the most favourable macroeconomic ratio based on our model.  Limitations: Our thesis is limited to the period 2006-2020 and the Swedish IPO market. Due to the lack of certain information about how much capital a company raises at its IPO, our selection is limited.