Thesis (Ph. D.)--Michigan State University. Dept. of Management, 1978. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 233-236).

LL.D.

The goal of this dissertation is to illustrate the importance and feasibility of conducting policy evaluations which pay attention to both efficiency and equity. Introducing an equity criterion necessarily involves introducing value judgements, but I suggest that objectivity can be maintained through the adoption of an 'ethically flexible' approach. That is, an analyst can avoid imposing his own particular values by explicitly conducting the evaluation from a number of different ethical positions. This dissertation illustrates the feasibility of an ethically flexible approach by carrying out an evaluation of the proposals for the reform of the Canadian Unemployment Insurance (UI) programme made by the Macdonald and Forget Commissions. The evaluation proceeds in four stages: 1. Behavioural models which take account of the existence of unemployment and UI are developed. 2. The models are estimated using an appropriate Canadian data set. 3. The estimated models are used to simulate behavioural responses to UI reform. 4. Estimation and simulation results are used to carry out the ethically flexible welfare evaluation. Two household labour-supply models are used. The first assumes that observed unemployment is the outcome of utility-maximizing choices. The second introduces the possibility that demand-side constraints may interfere with supply-side choices. A form of switching regression with sample separation unknown is developed to allow estimation of 'constrained' labour-supply functions. Additional problems for estimation include a budget constraint which is non-linear as a result of the UI programme and a dependent variable, weeks of leisure (unemployment), which is limited to values between zero and fifty-two. Both unconstrained and constrained models are estimated for single men, single women and couples, using linear expenditure systems and data from the 1982 Survey of Consumer Finance. Estimation results suggest that constrained labour-supply functions are less elastic than unconstrained functions, that there is no observable difference between the labour-supply behaviour of men and women in a constrained model, and that cross-effects are important in the determination of the labour-supply behaviour of couples. Estimated probabilities of constraint take an average value of (approximately) 80 percent. The simulation of behavioural responses to UI reform using the estimated unconstrained labour-supply functions suggests that large reductions in unemployment might be anticipated. Simulation using the constrained labour-supply functions suggests that responses may be negligible. Welfare evaluation measures are constructed for three ethical perspectives: The first is in the spirit of Utilitarianism; the second is in the spirit of John Rawls' theory of justice; the third is in the spirit of Robert Nozick's entitlement theory. The 'Utilitarian' measure is a mean of order r over the distribution of individual utilities. (Explicit interpersonal comparisons are required for these evaluations.) The 'Rawlsian' measure is a mean of order r over the distribution of individual incomes, censored at the poverty line to focus attention on the worst-off group. The 'Entitlement' measure is a measure of the distance between the distribution of individual costs (premiums) and benefits derived from UI. Three factors are important in the- determination of the welfare-evaluation results. First, the ethical position adopted matters. Both UI reform proposals appear welfare-reducing from a Utilitarian perspective and welfare-improving from an Entitlement perspective. Second, for the Rawlsian and Utilitarian evaluations, the assumed degree of inequality aversion is important. Finally, assumptions made about the nature of unemployment are critical. This is most clearly illustrated by the Rawlsian results. If unemployment is assumed to be the outcome of utility-maximizing choices, then both reform proposals appear welfare-improving: poor people choose to work more and their incomes increase. If unemployment may be the result of demand-side constraints so that increases in employment are not possible, then UI reform merely results in reductions in income for the worst-off group. These results illustrate the importance of both the equity and the efficiency dimensions of a policy evaluation. This thesis demonstrates the feasibility of conducting an objective policy evaluation which pays attention to both. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

No description available.

No description available.

<p>This thesis deals with the incidence and economic effects of payroll taxes earmarked for unemployment insurance. A major objective is to provide an appropriate theoretical framework for a discussion of this issue. In cases where D.I. coverage is reasonably comprehensive, S6 that the D.I. tax can be regarded as a broad based tax, it is argued that the proper engine of analysis is basically the standard macroeconomic general equilibrium model. The macroeconomic effects of taxation, whether they originate from the demand or supply side, are regarded as an integral part of incidence analysis.</p> <p>The standard macro framework requires modification in one direction, which is a ~ore detailed development of the aggregate labour supply function. This reflects the view that the most important macroeconomic effects of unemployment insurance are likely to emerge from the supply side, via work incentives.</p> <p>A number of variants of a small macroeconomic model are developed, each incorporating an explicit modelling of a hypothetical D.I. system. Qualitative incidence results are obtained using the traditional method of comparative statics, while a quantitative dimension is added in static and dynamic simulation exercises with plausible parameter values drawn from the relevant econometric literature. Different versions of the model employ various alternative hypotheses about the way in which the labour market operates and/or different specifications of the aggregate labour supply function.</p> <p>The incidence results depend largely on the effect of payroll tax increases on labour supply. In the so-called neoclassical version of the model, for example, payroll tax increases reduce both participation and average weeks worked by participants, but tax and benefit rates are connected via the D.I. budget constraint, and benefit rate changes also effect labour supply. An increase in the benefit rate will tend to reduce average weeks worked by participants but to increase participation itself. Therefore a balanced budget increase in payroll tax rates has a potentially ambiguous effect on labour supply. If the net impact on lahour supply is negative we obtain the 'standard' incidence results. A balanced budget increase in payroll tax rates reduces output and emplo)~ent, increases the general price level, and reduces both capital and labour income. (Similar results also occur in other versions of the model in which the labour market does not clear due to (e.g.) real or money wage rigidity.) On the other hand, if the net impact on labour supply is positive we obtain 'perverse' results, increases in output and employment, reductions in the price level and so on.</p> <p>The comparative static analysis and simulation exercises enable us to identify the key parameters in the aggregate labour supply function, and their critical values. For plausible parameter values, chosen on the basis of the available empirical evidence, it would appear that perverse results are not likely. However, there is clearly a need for more empirical investigation in this area.</p> <p>These results conflict with the traditional view that labour bears the full burden of payroll taxation, but we conclude that this view depends heavily on the assumed inelasticity of the aggregate labour supply function. The latter assumption is demonstrated to be inconsistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence on labour supply.</p> <p>Finally, some attention is also paid to the aggregate demand effects of unemployment insurance, in particular the case where the savings propensity out of U.I. benefits is less than that out of private factor incomes.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

The objective of this study is to measure and compare unemployment insurance (UI) policies among different countries based on generosity and efficiency. A modified modeling framework from Pallage, Scruggs, and Zimmermann (2013) is utilized that excludes savings by agents but incorporates endogenous job search intensities. To measure UI generosity two models are created: 1) a simple model where everyone is eligible for UI and receives benefits indefinitely until re-employment; and 2) a complex model, based on realistic UI policy, which incorporates a waiting period, a UI entitlement status, benefit payments and durations, as well as social assistance policies. The models are calibrated to match an unemployment rate and a share of short-term unemployment of a specific country. The only difference between the two models is the UI policy in place. The generosity metric is then calculated as the replacement ratio in the simple model such that agents are indifferent between the simple UI scheme and the complex (realistic) UI policy. Alongside the generosity metric, an efficiency measure is created that measures the utility loss from moving from the benchmark UI system (offering optimum level of benefits) to the realistic UI system. The countries investigated are Canada, United States, France, and Germany post and pre Hartz reforms. The main results show that Germany pre-reform is the most generous system followed by USA, Germany post-reform, France, and Canada. Rankings based on efficiency display similar pattern. A welfare comparison between Germany pre and post Hartz reform showed that the reform reduced UI generosity, decreased UI efficiency, and caused welfare to either decline or slightly increase depending on the specified risk aversion coefficient. Finally, the sensitivity results reveal that USA is the least generous UI system when housing assistance is removed from the social assistance benefit calculations.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Michigan State University. Dept. of Economics. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 116-118).

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar se a probabilidade dos trabalhadores do mercado formal serem demitidos aumenta quando esses são elegíveis ao recebimento do seguro-desemprego. Utilizando da Relações Anuais de Informações Sociais (RAIS), a alteração na elegibilidade ao auxílio promovida pela MP665/2014 permitiu uma estimação de diferenças em diferenças a fim de identificar esse efeito. O resultado encontrado aponta uma queda de 0,73 p.p. na probabilidade de demissão sem justa causa dos grupos que eram elegíveis no período anterior à mudança e deixaram de ser após sua entrada em vigor, em comparação com os não-elegíveis nos dois períodos. A partir desse número, conclui-se que pelo menos 13% das demissões sem justa causa são induzidas. Os efeitos são maiores para os indivíduos empregados em firmas pequenas, que tenham baixa escolaridade e que não estejam no setor de serviços ou indústria. Utilizando a Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego (PME) em uma análise complementar, conclui-se que 34% dos indivíduos que saem do formal para acessar o seguro-desemprego se empregam no setor informal no mês subsequente. / This study investigates whether the probability of Brazilian formal workers being laid-off increases when they are elegible to receive the unemployment insurance. Using an administrative data, Relações Anuais de Informações Sociais (RAIS), for the universe of formal workers, we estimate the effect of a change in the elibility criteria on the probability of lay-off for the workers using a diff-in-diff model. The results point out to a 0,73 p.p. decrease in this probability for groups who were elegible before the change and became inelegible afterwards, in comparison to the non-eligible workers in both periods. We conclude that fake layoffs accounts for at least 13% of total layoffs. The effects are more relevant for workers employed in small firms, with low education level and not employed in service or industrial sectors. In an additional analysis using a survey of labor force, Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME), we find that 34% of workers engaged in fake layoffs are reemployed in the informal sector in the next month.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Erlangen, 1929. / Includes bibliographical references (p. v-vi).