This dissertation seeks to contribute to our understanding of the role played by civilian leaders in the consolidation of democracy examining changes in levels of military influence over politics. This study departs from typical military-centric civil-military relations literature by employing a civilian-centric analysis. In particular, it shows how the former's focus on changing levels of internal threat cannot account for variations in the levels of civilian control over the military. The study instead adopts a framework that focuses on the incentive structure of civilian leaders as determined by competitive elections; the political capacity of leaders as reflected in their parliamentary majority, political experience and the effectiveness of their economic policies; and institutional rules, such as the system of government and organization of the parties. The thesis argues that, depending on their incentive structure and political capacity, the civilian leaders will either challenge a politically powerful military or ally with that military by adopting its preference structures. The relevance of this model for understanding civil-military relations in the aftermath of a transition to democracy is explored in the Turkish case by examining the shift from low to high levels of military influence between late 1980s and mid-1990s. The thesis identifies this shift by looking at the incentive structure and the political capacity of two civilian leaders: Prime Minister/President Turgut Ozal and Prime Minister Tansu Ciller.

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Le Projet GAP ou «South-East Anatolia Development Project » en Turquie est l'un des vastes projets de développement au monde, consistant en la construction de 21 barrages et de 19 centres hydro-électriques sur les fleuves de l'Euphrate et du Tigre. Toutefois, ce projet pose de nombreuses controverses au cours de la dernière décennie tant au niveau national, avec la question kurde, qu'au niveau régional, en raison de l'enjeu du partage de l'eau avec les pays voisins, notamment la Syrie et l'Irak. Néanmoins, ce sujet fut évoqué dans la plupart des cas sous l'angle exclusif de la question conflictuelle kurde. Les objectifs de mon mémoire cherchent à comprendre l’utilisation du projet GAP par le gouvernement turc dans les constructions nationales et politiques de la Turquie de 1930 et 1980 dans un but de souveraineté et puissance nationale. Cette analyse s’effectue dans un cadre plus général de géopolitique et d’histoire politique. En s'appuyant sur des travaux en matière de géopolitique et de puissance, et surtout sur les théories de construction nationale, ce mémoire se penche sur l'évolution du projet GAP, ainsi que sur son instrumentalisation dans la construction nationale de 1930 et la reconstruction politique et nationale de 1980. / The GAP or “South-Eastern Anatolia Development Project” in Turkey is one of the vast development projects in the world, consisting of the construction of 21 dams and 19 hydroelectric centers on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. However, this project posed many controversies during the last decade both at the national level, with the Kurdish question, and at the regional level, because of the issue of sharing water with neighboring countries, notably Syria and Iraq. Nevertheless, this subject was debated in most cases exclusively from the perspective of the Kurdish conflict issue. The objectives of my dissertation are to understand the use of the GAP project by the Turkish government in the national and political constructions of Turkey in 1930 and 1980 with the aim of sovereignty and national power. This analysis is carried out in a more general framework of geopolitics and political history. Drawn on work of geopolitics and power, and especially on theories of national construction, this dissertation focuses mainly on the evolution of the GAP project, as well as its instrumentalization in the national construction of 1930 and the political and national reconstruction of 1980.

Il s'agit d'étudier la tentative de la Turquie de se positionner comme une puissance sur les échiquiers eurasiens et caucasiens sous la présidence de Turgut Ozal / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished